Is the market still inflated?

[StateOfMyHead]

I was certain there would be a crash in 2020 that never came and while I think there is a buying opportunity now I have to wonder if the market is still inflated? The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are all higher than they were fall of 2019 at which time I thought we were due for a bit of a cooling off. What do you think?

[uksho]

I was certain there would be a crash in 2020 that never came and while I think there is a buying opportunity now I have to wonder if the market is still inflated? The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are all higher than they were fall of 2019 at which time I thought we were due for a bit of a cooling off. What do you think?

Million dollar question ( really ) , I wish I knew .
I guess it will fall further

what do bitcoin/ stablecoin owners think ?

[Tangler]

I am buying, but I am always buying. Seems like a good time to buy.

[pit.alumni]

I think valuations matter. Here's one way to look at it https://data.nasdaq.com/data/MULTPL/...ratio-by-month
It's pretty clear the market was inflated by low interest rates and helicopter money during Covid. So I think we're a bit long in the tooth by valuations. But in the short term, as always, it's anybody's guess. I'm simply maintaining my asset allocation, so I nibble at stocks I've wanted to own and add etfs if it gets more out of whack.

[CordMcNally]

I think there are still some companies that are overpriced. As far as the entire market being overpriced, we haven't seen these kind of levels since......2021.

[xraygoggles]

We are around 20% above pre-covid highs, so it's not as ridiculous as it was before. It's possible we drop more, but that should be a good thing for DCAers.

[VentAlarm]

May be overvalued, but my timeline is >10y and I don’t know of another asset class that will get me where I want to go. I’m not investing in BTC or cash.

[Tangler]

May be overvalued, but my timeline is >10y and I don’t know of another asset class that will get me where I want to go. I’m not investing in BTC or cash.

This. I need $ when i am 70 . That is 21 years away. That $ needs to be invested in stocks.
I cannot time it .
I will just plant it like an acorn and hope to watch it grow into an oak.

[Dewangski1]

Current Schiller PE suggests the market is still inflated, if you’re into that sort of thing.

[SpacemanSpiff12]

I think we're still inflated but I agree with VentAlarm that I'm investing for a 20+ year horizon so I wouldn't put my investments anywhere else for now. (Well, besides a small cutout for BTC and ETH.)

I do think it's notable that ex-US PE ratios are much more attractive, so I maintain a bigger foreign equity percentage than most people here seem to.

[Dont_know_mind]

I still think the US equity market is inflated.
20 years of outperformance and a decade of overvaluation may not have been wrung out in a year. It’s probably better than cash or bonds though.

Bonds were incredibly overvalued IMO and still are.

[zlandar]

If it was that easy to determine whether the market is overvalued active would be trouncing passive.

You can look back to 2016 with 20/20 hindsight:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=187757

[StateOfMyHead]

Like the consensus notes I will always continue to DCA as there is no sure way to know what will happen in the short term but most surely the market will run higher over the long haul. I'm pondering my strategy of moving the cash from the sale of two rental properties. I'm adding it in increments to SCHB, VTSAX and SCHH but can't help but feel a twinge of wondering if I should hold some back in case things take a nosedive.

[StateOfMyHead]

This. I need $ when i am 70 . That is 21 years away. That $ needs to be invested in stocks.
I cannot time it .
I will just plant it like an acorn and hope to watch it grow into an oak.

Are you planning to retire at 70 or is that just when you will start drawing from your stock market funds? I go back and forth trying to decide if my time frame is 8 years, when I'm 65 and plan to retire, or longer. I could live on my other investments for a few years without having to touch the stock market funds if needed.

[ShredtheGnar]

Top stocks in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still inflated and could fall further. This will bring down everything else with them. Value is looking more valuey. Ex-US is looking more in line with valuation. For the long term holder it looks like a good time to buy everything except maybe big growth. Once interest rates top out and start going back down those will be good too. Lots of uncertainty with geopolitics, COVID, Fed rate hikes, etc. It will be a bit of a rough ride for at least a year or 2