I was certain there would be a crash in 2020 that never came and while I think there is a buying opportunity now I have to wonder if the market is still inflated? The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are all higher than they were fall of 2019 at which time I thought we were due for a bit of a cooling off. What do you think?
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Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View PostI was certain there would be a crash in 2020 that never came and while I think there is a buying opportunity now I have to wonder if the market is still inflated? The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are all higher than they were fall of 2019 at which time I thought we were due for a bit of a cooling off. What do you think?
I guess it will fall further
what do bitcoin/ stablecoin owners think ?
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I think valuations matter. Here's one way to look at it https://data.nasdaq.com/data/MULTPL/...ratio-by-month
It's pretty clear the market was inflated by low interest rates and helicopter money during Covid. So I think we're a bit long in the tooth by valuations. But in the short term, as always, it's anybody's guess. I'm simply maintaining my asset allocation, so I nibble at stocks I've wanted to own and add etfs if it gets more out of whack.
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Originally posted by VentAlarm View PostMay be overvalued, but my timeline is >10y and I don’t know of another asset class that will get me where I want to go. I’m not investing in BTC or cash.
I cannot time it .
I will just plant it like an acorn and hope to watch it grow into an oak.
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I think we're still inflated but I agree with VentAlarm that I'm investing for a 20+ year horizon so I wouldn't put my investments anywhere else for now. (Well, besides a small cutout for BTC and ETH.)
I do think it's notable that ex-US PE ratios are much more attractive, so I maintain a bigger foreign equity percentage than most people here seem to.
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If it was that easy to determine whether the market is overvalued active would be trouncing passive.
You can look back to 2016 with 20/20 hindsight:
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Like the consensus notes I will always continue to DCA as there is no sure way to know what will happen in the short term but most surely the market will run higher over the long haul. I'm pondering my strategy of moving the cash from the sale of two rental properties. I'm adding it in increments to SCHB, VTSAX and SCHH but can't help but feel a twinge of wondering if I should hold some back in case things take a nosedive.
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Originally posted by Tangler View Post
This. I need $ when i am 70 . That is 21 years away. That $ needs to be invested in stocks.
I cannot time it .
I will just plant it like an acorn and hope to watch it grow into an oak.
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Top stocks in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still inflated and could fall further. This will bring down everything else with them. Value is looking more valuey. Ex-US is looking more in line with valuation. For the long term holder it looks like a good time to buy everything except maybe big growth. Once interest rates top out and start going back down those will be good too. Lots of uncertainty with geopolitics, COVID, Fed rate hikes, etc. It will be a bit of a rough ride for at least a year or 2
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