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Are we in a recession?

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  • #31
    I have 140k I put in a taxable account in january of 2022 (first time ever buying stocks), I’ve already lost 30k of my portfolio in unrealized losses, I hope it goes down further, I just bought more stock on Friday. I’ll buy more my next paycheck.

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    • #32
      I vote yes on a recession. I consider a recession two quarters of negative growth. So atleast on paper i expect a recession. I don't think it will look like the recessions of the past with massive job loss, etc. But If consumer sales/revenue increase 5% and inflation rate is 8% you've sold less product and less growth. I think China's lockdown going to harm supply chains and growth, and generally think Europe growth is declining or stagnant with everything going on over there. As the market keeps dropping people will spend less.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Craigslist View Post
        I have 140k I put in a taxable account in january of 2022 (first time ever buying stocks), I’ve already lost 30k of my portfolio in unrealized losses, I hope it goes down further, I just bought more stock on Friday. I’ll buy more my next paycheck.
        Another good day for harvesting..

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        • #34
          The riddle of Southwest Airline:
          Got the “Wanna Get Away” low airfares email.
          Old clickbait price was $49.
          New clickbait price is $98.

          I have no clue if “inflation” is 100% or Southwest is simply growing and is now on its way to profitable growth. SW typically doe a good job of adjusting prices to maintain load factors. Might be for the summer travel season.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Tangler View Post
            I think we probably are but I do not think it is the end of the world and I think things will get better.
            Jokes on you - it's definitely the end of the world this time.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by danesgod View Post

              Jokes on you - it's definitely the end of the world this time.
              https://youtu.be/Z0GFRcFm-aY

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Tim View Post
                The riddle of Southwest Airline:
                Got the “Wanna Get Away” low airfares email.
                Old clickbait price was $49.
                New clickbait price is $98.

                I have no clue if “inflation” is 100% or Southwest is simply growing and is now on its way to profitable growth. SW typically doe a good job of adjusting prices to maintain load factors. Might be for the summer travel season.
                Either sounds like a good price for a flight.. Years back recall paying ~$100 regularly for short flight in NE during residency, current pricing seems similar on SW unless trying to fly within this month

                $49 though that would be a deal

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by childay View Post

                  Either sounds like a good price for a flight.. Years back recall paying ~$100 regularly for short flight in NE during residency, current pricing seems similar on SW unless trying to fly within this month

                  $49 though that would be a deal
                  $49 was usually like Houston to Austin.
                  $98 now with a 6am departure and a stopover in Dallas. The flight itself takes 1 hour more than driving to the Austin airport. Add in home to airport time and this is definitely NOT a bargain at any price, even 50% discount demand price reductions.
                  I was amazed that the “teaser” prices doubled.

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                  • #39
                    Well I think Powell kind of laid it out today, and the market liked what it heard. Here’s what I heard.
                    We are a bunch of smart guys and we get that inflation is crushing working Americans so we are going to use the tools we got to try and get this under control while keeping the economy humming.
                    But there’s a lot of ************************ we don’t control, so where it ends up?????But we’re a bunch of smart guys and we’re using the tools.......But where it ends up????

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                    • #40
                      Productivity has been a big driver for US GDP growth, which actually the metric the economy.

                      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/labo...ince-1947.html

                      I’ll let the wonks dissect it.

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                      • #41
                        Yes, in a large bubble of tech/crypto/vc essentially caused by excessive liquidity and further fueled by more recent overactive fed actions that while necessary given covid, went too far and were ill-targeted. Turns out MMT isn't all it is cracked up to be. This has also been fueled by complete and total regulatory failure, with the SEC, IRS and additional federal agencies essentially failing to do their jobs and enact/enforce rules and legislation to prevent these bubbles from happening. Crypto and tech world both filled with fraud, the rise of "free" entities who are profiting off extensive data with the illusion of benefit passed to end user, which actually ends up being net loss. Federal government has also allowed big tech to grow immensely so that it may also use the data whenever it feels like. Win-win.

                        Asset prices have been wildly driven up by excess liquidity and will contract in the same manner. Too much VC money sloshing around " pre-idea", extensive tech equity packages offered, they're all symptoms of too much liquidity.

                        Tech is probably the biggest bubble and has been propped up as these untouchable businesses who are essentially at core, discretionary spending, which will get cut massively as people have to decide if they want a new iphone or food on the table. They will likely pick food. Crypto a close second.

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                        • #42
                          What ever it is . Market is getting attractive. A year ago, its common to get involved in conversation with friends I know who start talking about stock picking like NKLA. Now those conversations have died down. Less speculation.we don't hear much about SPAC

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                          • #43
                            Recessions, inflation and markets are not directly correlated. But they are not independent.
                            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...-bear-markets/

                            We are in uncertain territory. Never been done before. Looks like a recessionary bear.
                            Please don’t shoot the messenger. That simply implies a longer recovery.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Tim View Post
                              Recessions, inflation and markets are not directly correlated. But they are not independent.
                              https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...-bear-markets/

                              We are in uncertain territory. Never been done before. Looks like a recessionary bear.
                              Please don’t shoot the messenger. That simply implies a longer recovery.
                              yikes.

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                              • #45
                                Entering depression, not recession.

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