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  • #16
    Originally posted by Tim View Post
    Switching jobs is different than the labor participation. GDP requires and increase in production. Do you think her production will be double? Translates to either inflation or lower profits. Just saying, GDP shrank. It is supposed to grow. Typically, does not translate to stagflation. Stagnant economic growth and inflation.
    The point was that jobs are abundant, and not just bad ones. That is not the case in a recession.

    Also, looking at a GDP decrease in isolation is missing the point. Does not occur in a vacuum, you have to consider the whole.

    Consumer spending rose nearly 3%...that is the engine of the economy. Business spending was up over 9%. Is that consistent with recession?

    When you only read the headline, you tend to miss the actual story.

    I'm not saying it isn't possible that we are entering a recession, but it sure would be a very weird way to do it.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by bovie View Post

      The point was that jobs are abundant, and not just bad ones. That is not the case in a recession.

      Also, looking at a GDP decrease in isolation is missing the point. Does not occur in a vacuum, you have to consider the whole.

      Consumer spending rose nearly 3%...that is the engine of the economy. Business spending was up over 9%. Is that consistent with recession?

      When you only read the headline, you tend to miss the actual story.

      I'm not saying it isn't possible that we are entering a recession, but it sure would be a very weird way to do it.
      100% agree. The economy is complicated. The inventories are impacted by supply chain, might be a problem. 1Q down.
      https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...rch-employment

      The potential disconnect is the population growth and the number employed aren't keeping pace. Go to have a way to have them employed and increasing GDP. Maybe this time has happened before? That was the point of stagflation. The total labor force and supply chain are the results for measuring a recession, GDP. Not the factors that cause it. NBR is thought to rely on four factors. They have not taken a dive, but they could easily.
      My anecdote (similar to your spouse) is there are a crap load of items missing or in short supply in the grocery store.

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      • #18
        i think yes/no isn't even the right framework here.

        very tough to call a recession until you are obviously in one (at which point polls are pointless) or until after it's over.

        like everything else in american life it's complicated.

        it's a great time to be a medium earner to high earner with some skills willing to explore new career options.
        it's a great time to be a low skilled worker who is willing to show up to shifts.
        it's a terrible time to be looking for a house.
        it's a bad time for everyone when they go to the pump or the store.
        it's looking like a fairly bad time for investors with a combo of inflation and bearish market (or at least not bull)

        how anyone feels about the overall picture is also very colored by motivated reasoning. the exact same facts will lead not only different people to different conclusions but will lead the same person to different conclusions depending on what narrative they want.

        i'm getting paid to do a job i like, there is food on my table in a house i bought in 2019, i'm buying stocks at a relative discount. i'm pretty happy.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by MPMD View Post
          i think yes/no isn't even the right framework here.

          very tough to call a recession until you are obviously in one (at which point polls are pointless) or until after it's over.

          like everything else in american life it's complicated.

          it's a great time to be a medium earner to high earner with some skills willing to explore new career options.
          it's a great time to be a low skilled worker who is willing to show up to shifts.
          it's a terrible time to be looking for a house.
          it's a bad time for everyone when they go to the pump or the store.
          it's looking like a fairly bad time for investors with a combo of inflation and bearish market (or at least not bull)

          how anyone feels about the overall picture is also very colored by motivated reasoning. the exact same facts will lead not only different people to different conclusions but will lead the same person to different conclusions depending on what narrative they want.

          i'm getting paid to do a job i like, there is food on my table in a house i bought in 2019, i'm buying stocks at a relative discount. i'm pretty happy.
          For sure. Bankruptcy and M&A attorneys do very well in times of financial duress. Small private businesses are about 44% of GDP. I will let everyone rationalize their personal and impact. The current climate does not seem favorable to expanding small business. Hard to find help, inflation amongst others would seem to hinder growth as opposed to growth, which is needed. Of course I could be wrong. The poll was simply "consumer sentiment". The economy seems to be stalling. We will not know the answer until months after the fact.

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          • #20
            I was reading how most economist are saying that we are not going to be in a recession because consumer and business spending remained strong. We may not currently be in a recession, but I think that a recession is fairly imminent. I think that rampant inflation will continue and cause the fed to continue to raise interest rates until the economy begins to contract. That, combined with the war, pandemic, supply and ongoing labor shortages, and our dysfunctional political system will probably all make any contraction worse and more prolonged then it needs to be. I am still predicting a period of stagflation, maybe without the high unemployment due to labor/demographic shortages.

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            • #21
              We will find out if we are in a recession after next quarter officially, at least by definition. RIght now most are concerned with the economy, we run in a highly leveraged society, small changes in rates are disasters for those living on the edge of their paycheck.

              Low skilled labor shortages have been artificially induced by policy. Locally a low skilled worker makes $20/hr. Benefits for those unmployed, include unemployment, 100% health care, $1000 a month for groceries, subsidized rent, heat, electric and water paid by the state and a free cell phone. Why would you ever want to work? Unless you solve some of these issues

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              • #22
                This will be long term. There’s still a massive interest rate / inflation disconnect.

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                • #23
                  I hope there’s a recession soon. My wife wants to upgrade our house. If the next recession is 10 years again (2010-2020), that would be painful.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                    It is really up to Jim Cramer.
                    Or Rick Santelli...

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post
                      I hope there’s a recession soon. My wife wants to upgrade our house. If the next recession is 10 years again (2010-2020), that would be painful.
                      Was it really 10 years? By most metrics the economy did very well during that 10 year span.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by HumbleInvestor View Post

                        Was it really 10 years? By most metrics the economy did very well during that 10 year span.
                        Yeah, I was going to ask this same thing.

                        If 2010 to 2020 was a recession, I'll take a few more of those please.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by HumbleInvestor View Post

                          Was it really 10 years? By most metrics the economy did very well during that 10 year span.
                          I meant the period between recessions was 10 years (recession 2020, and one prior to that was 2009). So if it is another 10 years again (which probably won't be), then there would not be another recession until 2030, which would be painful (to wait for).

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                          • #28
                            I think we are already in a recession, and it will be confirmed next quarter.

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                            • #29
                              I think we are heading there. I'm pessimistic about market returns for the next 2 years. I just hope my NW does not regress by the end of the year.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by GIMD View Post
                                I think we are heading there. I'm pessimistic about market returns for the next 2 years. I just hope my NW does not regress by the end of the year.
                                Depends on age.

                                If you have > 5 years before you need to spend the $ then it is irrelevant what the market does in the short run.

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