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Are we in a recession?

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  • Are we in a recession?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us...190926750.html
    1Q-22 GDP down 1.4%
    "During a recession, the economy struggles, people lose work, companies make fewer sales and the country’s overall economic output declines. The point where the economy officially falls into a recession depends on a variety of factors.
    In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.
    The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
    NBER always calls a recession After it has occurred.

    Has a recession started in 1Q 22? Pretty simple way to test forecasting, or not.
    50
    YES
    62.00%
    31
    NO
    38.00%
    19
    Last edited by Tim; 04-28-2022, 08:11 AM.

  • #2
    I think we probably are but I do not think it is the end of the world and I think things will get better.

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    • #3
      hopefully short-lived

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      • #4
        It is really up to Jim Cramer.

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        • #5
          There are jobs available aren't there? Just not dream jobs which is fool's gold IMO.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Random1 View Post
            It is really up to Jim Cramer.
            Inverse Jim Cramer

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            • #7
              I'm in the no camp. There is still a ton of demand for goods and services, jobs are plentiful, inflation is real and the Fed is aggressively raising rates to squelch demand. As usual, the Fed is trying for a "soft landing", but that is elusive. I think the landing will be much harder than they will like, and that will be the recession.

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              • #8
                Ask me again in July. Then I can look down at GDP for 2 quarters and tell you.

                Inventories up, credit use up, house/car purchases on a negative downtrend. Certainly pointing that direction.

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                • #9
                  Also in the no camp. I have yet to see a sustained period of decreased economic activity. That said, I’m concerned about the significant possibility, and about inflation and the steps that will have to be taken to get it under control.
                  My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by burritos View Post
                    There are jobs available aren't there? Just not dream jobs which is fool's gold IMO.
                    Someone said a ton of high paying solar panel jobs are starting up. Right away. Maybe next week?

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                    • #11
                      One would think a tanking of GDP and the outlook on interest rates would be a negative. What does Mr. Market do? A market rally!!! Makes perfect non-sense.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Tim View Post

                        Someone said a ton of high paying solar panel jobs are starting up. Right away. Maybe next week?
                        Solar is a feel good act. The only way to really to reduce CO2 emissions(which I don't care about) is to reduce material consumption. I don't see that happening.

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                        • #13
                          Wife has been shopping around for a new job (non-medical). Got interviews with around 10 Fortune 500s in like two weeks, with multiple subsequent offers of nearly double current salary.

                          N=1, but doesn't seem like how a recession behaves.

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                          • #14
                            No.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bovie View Post
                              Wife has been shopping around for a new job (non-medical). Got interviews with around 10 Fortune 500s in like two weeks, with multiple subsequent offers of nearly double current salary.

                              N=1, but doesn't seem like how a recession behaves.
                              Switching jobs is different than the labor participation. GDP requires and increase in production. Do you think her production will be double? Translates to either inflation or lower profits. Just saying, GDP shrank. It is supposed to grow. Typically, does not translate to stagflation. Stagnant economic growth and inflation.

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