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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-us...190926750.html
1Q-22 GDP down 1.4%
"During a recession, the economy struggles, people lose work, companies make fewer sales and the country’s overall economic output declines. The point where the economy officially falls into a recession depends on a variety of factors.
In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
NBER always calls a recession After it has occurred.
Has a recession started in 1Q 22? Pretty simple way to test forecasting, or not.
1Q-22 GDP down 1.4%
"During a recession, the economy struggles, people lose work, companies make fewer sales and the country’s overall economic output declines. The point where the economy officially falls into a recession depends on a variety of factors.
In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
NBER always calls a recession After it has occurred.
Has a recession started in 1Q 22? Pretty simple way to test forecasting, or not.
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