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  • #16
    This just in: VOO/VTSAX isn't doing too hot... almost nothing aside from commodities is doing well lately.

    The ones that dropped the most will usually be the ones that rebound the sharpest (assuming good underlying fundamentals). That will mostly mean tech, internationals, etc.

    And fyi, the FAANG stock to have is, was, and will be ...
    ...GOOG. It got beat up this past week like all... earnings this coming week (usually a price boost, but occasionally a buy opportunity), 20/1 split this summer to be more accessible and DOW eligible, amazing company with tons of services that everyone uses. They are just one bad iphone or one good service (bona fide online commerce?) away from being the top company in the world by market cap... very likely will be that top dog in a year or two. It will be the top holding in indexes.

    They have all the data and control the web traffic, and that's an absolute license to print money. Few people can name a non-niche search engine besides Google and YTube, and far fewer can honestly say they use any other one with regularity. Find me another 20+ year old company that does 20% YoY ad revenue growth each quarter after quarter after year after decade? Find me another company that 90% of American kids and adults (and a good chunk of the globe) uses one or many of their services every single day? To not understand Google stock as this generation's early 21st century version of what Microsoft or Altria stocks were in the late 20th century is to have blinders on.

    All of the 'VTSAX and relax' and 'stock picking is risky' people always like to say "it is hard to beat the market average, and I challenge anyone to show me something that does." I say again: "X% GOOG and then 100-X% VOO will smoke just VOO/VTSAX alone. Pick 98/2 or 95/5 or 90/10 or whatever you like... they all beat 100/0 of S&P/Google. I shall call it the VOO-gle portfolio... or the Kenny GTSAX? Sure, it's not a highly active or daring mixture, but it wins nonetheless, doesn't it? Let me know where I shall accept my Nobel prizes for exemplary work in modern financials.

    Spoiler alert: I got this crazy idea while I woke up to my Google Home clock, used Google maps to get to work with the least traffic, checked my Gmail on my desktop, saw patients who mostly had found the office on GMB, viewed a YT vid at lunch and Googled a restaurant nearby, used my Android phone when I needed Google translate to check something on the menu, and headed back to the hospital and looked for a present on Google shopping and played YT music while I did my notes. Crazy, I know... nobody would ever use Google stuff more than once or twice a day.
    Last edited by Max Power; 04-24-2022, 10:26 PM.

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    • #17
      I agree we need to take down google

      Comment


      • #18
        I follow the “experts”.
        https://markets.businessinsider.com/...1030371364?amp
        But for entertainment only.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Max Power View Post
          This just in: VOO/VTSAX isn't doing too hot... almost nothing aside from commodities is doing well lately.

          The ones that dropped the most will usually be the ones that rebound the sharpest (assuming good underlying fundamentals). That will mostly mean tech, internationals, etc.

          And fyi, the FAANG stock to have is, was, and will be ...
          ...GOOG. It got beat up this past week like all... earnings this coming week (usually a price boost, but occasionally a buy opportunity), 20/1 split this summer to be more accessible and DOW eligible, amazing company with tons of services that everyone uses. They are just one bad iphone or one good service (bona fide online commerce?) away from being the top company in the world by market cap... very likely will be that top dog in a year or two. It will be the top holding in indexes.

          They have all the data and control the web traffic, and that's an absolute license to print money. Few people can name a non-niche search engine besides Google and YTube, and far fewer can honestly say they use any other one with regularity. Find me another 20+ year old company that does 20% YoY ad revenue growth each quarter after quarter after year after decade? Find me another company that 90% of American kids and adults (and a good chunk of the globe) uses one or many of their services every single day? To not understand Google stock as this generation's early 21st century version of what Microsoft or Altria stocks were in the late 20th century is to have blinders on.

          All of the 'VTSAX and relax' and 'stock picking is risky' people always like to say "it is hard to beat the market average, and I challenge anyone to show me something that does." I say again: "X% GOOG and then 100-X% VOO will smoke just VOO/VTSAX alone. Pick 98/2 or 95/5 or 90/10 or whatever you like... they all beat 100/0 of S&P/Google. I shall call it the VOO-gle portfolio... or the Kenny GTSAX? Sure, it's not a highly active or daring mixture, but it wins nonetheless, doesn't it? Let me know where I shall accept my Nobel prizes for exemplary work in modern financials.

          Spoiler alert: I got this crazy idea while I woke up to my Google Home clock, used Google maps to get to work with the least traffic, checked my Gmail on my desktop, saw patients who mostly had found the office on GMB, viewed a YT vid at lunch and Googled a restaurant nearby, used my Android phone when I needed Google translate to check something on the menu, and headed back to the hospital and looked for a present on Google shopping and played YT music while I did my notes. Crazy, I know... nobody would ever use Google stuff more than once or twice a day.
          Google is definitely a good buy. It is crazy how diversified it is. I agree with you that it should outperform sp500.

          It is top megacap to take value away from the other megacaps.

          Comment


          • #20
            Google down 7.7% including after hours after earnings disappointment. Who knows if this is just short term pullback or the beginning of a longer drawdown.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post
              I like all three companies, think they offer a valuable service, and hope they stay in business, even if they move from being growth stocks to being value stocks.
              They do provide a valuable service but that does not mean they were good investments.

              In the long run they could be Kodak or kmart,

              Long run value? hard to say?

              I know it was obvious but my point was picking long term winners is not easy (at least for me) and actively trading is a fools errand for most simple docs (myself included).

              Picking winners is irrelevant if you just buy the whole market.

              No need to find the individual needles if you just buy the whole haystack.

              In 20-50 years VTSAX will probably still be here.

              In 20-50 years many individual companies will not.

              Avoid the uncompensated risk.

              Keep costs low, buy the whole deal, and focus on making money being a good doc.

              Comment


              • #22
                If you buy VTI/VTSAX, you are essentially picking a winner. The US of A.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                  This just in: VOO/VTSAX isn't doing too hot... almost nothing aside from commodities is doing well lately.

                  The ones that dropped the most will usually be the ones that rebound the sharpest (assuming good underlying fundamentals). That will mostly mean tech, internationals, etc.

                  And fyi, the FAANG stock to have is, was, and will be ...
                  ...GOOG. It got beat up this past week like all... earnings this coming week (usually a price boost, but occasionally a buy opportunity), 20/1 split this summer to be more accessible and DOW eligible, amazing company with tons of services that everyone uses. They are just one bad iphone or one good service (bona fide online commerce?) away from being the top company in the world by market cap... very likely will be that top dog in a year or two. It will be the top holding in indexes.

                  They have all the data and control the web traffic, and that's an absolute license to print money. Few people can name a non-niche search engine besides Google and YTube, and far fewer can honestly say they use any other one with regularity. Find me another 20+ year old company that does 20% YoY ad revenue growth each quarter after quarter after year after decade? Find me another company that 90% of American kids and adults (and a good chunk of the globe) uses one or many of their services every single day? To not understand Google stock as this generation's early 21st century version of what Microsoft or Altria stocks were in the late 20th century is to have blinders on.

                  All of the 'VTSAX and relax' and 'stock picking is risky' people always like to say "it is hard to beat the market average, and I challenge anyone to show me something that does." I say again: "X% GOOG and then 100-X% VOO will smoke just VOO/VTSAX alone. Pick 98/2 or 95/5 or 90/10 or whatever you like... they all beat 100/0 of S&P/Google. I shall call it the VOO-gle portfolio... or the Kenny GTSAX? Sure, it's not a highly active or daring mixture, but it wins nonetheless, doesn't it? Let me know where I shall accept my Nobel prizes for exemplary work in modern financials.

                  Spoiler alert: I got this crazy idea while I woke up to my Google Home clock, used Google maps to get to work with the least traffic, checked my Gmail on my desktop, saw patients who mostly had found the office on GMB, viewed a YT vid at lunch and Googled a restaurant nearby, used my Android phone when I needed Google translate to check something on the menu, and headed back to the hospital and looked for a present on Google shopping and played YT music while I did my notes. Crazy, I know... nobody would ever use Google stuff more than once or twice a day.
                  @RemindMe_OfThis in 6 months

                  this reads a lot like your bullish alibaba post from about 2.5x ago

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

                    @RemindMe_OfThis in 6 months

                    this reads a lot like your bullish alibaba post from about 2.5x ago
                    Charlie Munger is very bullish on BABA too

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Craigslist View Post

                      Charlie Munger is very bullish on BABA too
                      is and has been, bullish on China in general for quite a while. Like unpopularly so. I wouldn’t bet against him very long term. Well actually long term I would, him specifically

                      he also says he assumes fiat currencies go to zero

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Brains428 View Post
                        If you buy VTI/VTSAX, you are essentially picking a winner. The US of A.
                        Add vxus

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
                          is and has been, bullish on China in general for quite a while. Like unpopularly so. I wouldn’t bet against him very long term. Well actually long term I would, him specifically...
                          Alibaba is very strong, and China is pretty strong right now... not dumping money/supplies into Russia-Ukraine like USA and NATO are, not getting increased oil/gas prices... China is simply on the sidelines and producing. That said, I agree there is no way to know if BABA, VWO, etc will cont to be punished in terms of market prices despite good production and potential. Their recent prices continue to be pitifully low compared to their proven P/E ratios, and that's the clear investor risk there, esp for the stocks US markets can give warnings and sanction and fines and delist simply because they choose to.

                          ...Google is the most common sense of common sense. Their pricing reflects their profits. They are a USA company, they own info and online ads, and they are "disappointing" when they announce earnings that are amazing yet not new records for them. There is a reason good data scientists get $200-300k jobs coming out of school... that is the future. The stock is on sale today with slightly lower than expected profits/earnings... lowest price this year (although still a far cry above the ~1k I got many shares for in COVID crash).

                          They have done over 2x the returns of broad market VTI and similar... and they will continue to. Expect DOW status and top world stock in market cap terms and dividend coming fairly soon. If there are ever anti-trust suits (realistically the only knock ppl try to make on Google), then they will just break up into YouTube videos + YT Movies + ads stock, Google Search + browser stock, Google Maps + GMB + self-driving stock, Google Mail + Drive stock, Google Cloud stock, Google Android phones stock, etc etc etc. That forcing of spin offs was actually a great thing in $$$ terms for Bell phone companies, many utility companies, industrial giants, etc over the years. As somebody with over 100 shares GOOG (so over 2k shares once they split), I would absolutely welcome the spin-offs - whether forced or at Google's choosing.

                          Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
                          he also says he assumes fiat currencies go to zero
                          They do. Every single one in human history worldwide. USD, BTC, etc will be no exception. Nobody can say exactly when, but they all print and dilute until the world catches on. We are well on the way to ruining USD pumping into Ukraine, and Russia is wise not to take our fake money for real oil (for USA or Poland or anyone else). Simply look at how much value USD has lost since WW1 and gold standard... the party doesn't last forever.

                          Gold is the undisputed, undefeated money in history. Productive business, stocks, RE, etc are also obviously wise.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                            They do. Every single one in human history worldwide. USD, BTC, etc will be no exception. Nobody can say exactly when, but they all print and dilute until the world catches on... Gold is the undisputed, undefeated money in history.
                            BTC is obviously not a fiat currency.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post
                              BTC is obviously not a fiat currency.
                              Oh, I must have read wrong. I thought BTC was man-made, created, supply regulated by man... like all other fiat.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                                Oh, I must have read wrong. I thought BTC was man-made, created, supply regulated by man... like all other fiat.
                                both. at this point former fits better than latter. not subject to the problem of printing and dilution which is why fiats all die

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