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  • What now?

    Seems like we have lots of people with crystal balls ๐Ÿ”ฎ.
    I cannot begin to guess what is next.
    The volatility has been robust.
    What do you think the remainder of the year will hold for the total us stock market ? VTI or VTSAX?
    Specifically, on Jan 1 2023 what will we see compared to today?
    Lordosis style poll:
    Inflation? Monetary policy? Russia? China? Covid?
    56
    >15% gain
    8.93%
    5
    10-15% gain
    16.07%
    9
    5-9% gain
    10.71%
    6
    0-4% gain
    14.29%
    8
    0-4% loss
    1.79%
    1
    5-9% loss
    12.50%
    7
    10-15% loss
    3.57%
    2
    >15% loss
    0%
    0
    No clue, never right about these things
    32.14%
    18
    Something else?
    3.57%
    2

  • #2
    I think the total stock market will be up at least 10% because I think, in aggregate, the stock market will keep up/surpass inflation.

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    • #3
      i consistently underestimate market performance
      almost everyone does

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      • #4
        5-9% loss. A guess with which I'm doing nothing about.

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        • #5
          8.57% gain. Plus or minus 0.01%

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          • #6
            Originally posted by MPMD View Post
            i consistently underestimate market performance
            almost everyone does
            This has been true. Certainly true for me and in all the forum polls I have seen.

            questions:

            1. will the market continue to outperform?

            2. If we get a prolonged bear, how will people โ€œfeelโ€?

            3. Overconfidence? Will any forum members who think they have it figured out now, panic sell?

            4. How many active traders will get crushed and become indexers after the experience? Or will they continue to do well?

            I personally do not know the answer to 1&2 but i think I know the answer to 3 for me is a hard NO.

            It better be!

            I think we might find out, but i am usually wrong and hope to be again.
            Last edited by Tangler; 02-26-2022, 02:05 AM.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
              5-9% loss. A guess with which I'm doing nothing about.
              True.

              I think 5-9% loss sounds right, and yes there is nothing to do about it.

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              • #8
                Also, feel terrible for the people of Ukraine. Terrible. Wish our country would do more.

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                • #9
                  Blood on the streets (sorry Ukraine). I bought a few shares of TSLA. I did this in 2008 with Apple. Only time will tell if this is wise.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Tangler View Post
                    Also, feel terrible for the people of Ukraine. Terrible. Wish our country would do more.
                    probably best for this thread to stay on the topic of market effects rather than foreign policy.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by MPMD View Post

                      probably best for this thread to stay on the topic of market effects rather than foreign policy.
                      Sorry, Fair. Just sorta thinking out loud. Roger that.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hatton View Post
                        Blood on the streets (sorry Ukraine). I bought a few shares of TSLA. I did this in 2008 with Apple. Only time will tell if this is wise.
                        Long term I think stocks will be higher. Short term (next 5 years) I have no clue.

                        We bought international stocks (vanguard total international) in my wife's IRA last week.

                        That money (wife's IRA) is money we can "afford" to ignore for 20 years. I think it will be higher in 20 years but no one knows for sure.

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                        • #13
                          I sold some bond funds for a tax loss about a week ago. I have too much cash now so I decided to speculate a little bit. Worst case scenario I have a loss to offset a Roth conversion. Only 80k.

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                          • #14
                            I voted no clue because that is the truth and I was way wrong about the past two years but my guess is lower ~15%. Based on past history I recall flush periods are followed by corrections and in my opinion things are overly inflated now both stocks and housing market. Simply put when the average American is jumping on the bandwagon it makes me leery.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View Post
                              I voted no clue because that is the truth and I was way wrong about the past two years but my guess is lower ~15%. Based on past history I recall flush periods are followed by corrections and in my opinion things are overly inflated now both stocks and housing market. Simply put when the average American is jumping on the bandwagon it makes me leery.
                              Roger that!

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