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Where We Are in the Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity

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  • #31
    I don't think I've heard anyone say that bonds aren't going to really suck for the near term. I think the summary is that there aren't many other low-volatility alternatives that don't also suck right now or have a higher risk.

    I agree with Random1 (and Charlie Munger). I try to go out of my way to have my beliefs challenged--thanks for providing some of that here. I learned a lot from the book, Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me). It's an insightful review of how we are pretty much "hard-wired" for self-justification. Might be one of the hardest psychological barriers to overcome because it's so self-soothing and ego-protecting. Much harder to say, "What am I missing? Where might I be wrong?" and then really pay attention to the answers.


    • #32
      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
      You talking about the same Ray Dalio that said the market would crash if Trump were elected? Or are you talking about the Ray Dalio that said we're going into a Great Depression in April 2020? The more stuff one can throw at a wall the more likely something will stick. And eventually these people will get something right but they're typically wrong a lot more than they're right. Ignore the noise.
      Predicting the future is so hard that I'm super glad my investing plan doesn't require me to be able to do it in order to be successful.
      Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011


      • #33
        Originally posted by Tangler View Post
        Not illegal for congress. Those people suck.
        i love index funds so much that i think that every elected official (at every rank) should not be able to buy anything else!


        • #34
          Originally posted by minervaMD View Post
          Come on guys, give it a read and *then* comment

          Dalio is a china shilling self absorbed pontificator with a ton of takes. You can usually exit and short market every time he says cash is trash. He's becoming the next Gartman.

          I've no problem radically changing the porfolio allocation and/or timing the market within reason.

          You should have reassessed your bond allocation after covid when rates bottomed, QE maxed and huge fiscal transfers came in. Literally was no where for them to go but down. Short/int term arent even unattractive at this point, but I've no bonds.

          There were wonderful inflation/rate hybrid plays that made far more sense, but now you're buying at a much higher price, nothings great.


          • #35
            Interesting article. I ask myself hasn't the market priced this in already. Furthermore Bitcoin the so called inflation hedge and answer doesn't seem any better than the market.

            I will say the inflation parameters are concerning and I have no idea what that means for long term personal wealth.

            Thanks for the article and the TED talk.


            • #36
              Originally posted by MPMD View Post

              i love index funds so much that i think that every elected official (at every rank) should not be able to buy anything else!
              We can agree on one thing: index funds are excellent.
              I only invest in index funds & ETFs.
              That and some small business ventures that I personally run.

              Every time someone from congress gets insider info and trades on it they are screwing over the people they are supposed to represent.

              Regardless of party, it is a dirtball move.


              Last edited by Tangler; 02-18-2022, 03:47 AM.