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Where We Are in the Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity

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  • #16
    The best inflation protection is having a job. OP if you are early/mid career than I would not worry and stay the course. If you are late career and retirement is soon inflation can devastate an unprepared portfolio.

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    • #17
      To answer the OP question.
      I have no idea where inflation will go.
      My portfolio is 2X leveraged commodity country tilted indexes (UK, Australia), so would do fantastically if inflation increased sustainably.
      I don't expect that and my base case is for inflation to go back to what it was pre-pandemic.
      My main reason for having the current portfolio is 2% carry with the index return Vs cost of capital.

      I am averse to bonds at the current real interest rates (hence I have a negative bond allocation).

      I think if you are going to tilt with an under-allocation in bonds, you just have to be prepared not to brown your pants when TSHTF.
      Do you think you will be able to HODL without/with less ballast?

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      • #18
        I fully expect bad things in the coming economy and that asset prices will be negatively affected. I do not have confidence that any action I take will be better than letting it ride and waiting for improvement. Tolerating the inevitable downturns is the price of earning money long term through investing. That’s the best I have been able to come up with. I’m not smart enough with the right timing to do better.
        My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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        • #19
          Nobody knows nothin’.

          It’s helpful to make peace with the idea that you cannot predict the market over the short term. Over the long, long term, it seems like there might be a general trend.

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          • #20
            Ray Dalio may have many more millions than me but he has no special insider knowledge of the future than me.

            I am not going to buy overheated and overpriced real estate to try and beat inflation ( OP- have you tried buying real estate now - I have tried and you get crap at highly inflated prices) . I will stick with my current stock and real estate and play the long term game.

            And yes, i did real you linked article.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Hank View Post
              Nobody knows nothin’.

              It’s helpful to make peace with the idea that you cannot predict the market over the short term. Over the long, long term, it seems like there might be a general trend.
              Do you think some of the richest people in the world may have some idea or at least some influence?

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              • #22
                Originally posted by chocolatebear11 View Post

                Do you think some of the richest people in the world may have some idea or at least some influence?
                No. The closest you’ll get is insider trading (politicians are in this group). They can sometimes make moves before something happens but it’s also illegal. Long term they’re no better than anyone else. Lots of smart and rich people make bad investment decisions all the time.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Antares View Post
                  I fully expect bad things in the coming economy and that asset prices will be negatively affected. I do not have confidence that any action I take will be better than letting it ride and waiting for improvement. Tolerating the inevitable downturns is the price of earning money long term through investing. That’s the best I have been able to come up with. I’m not smart enough with the right timing to do better.
                  This is the best plan. Why? It is based on “known factors”.
                  Where You Are in the Big Cycle of Money, Credit, Debt, and Economic Activity.

                  I have no clue where anyone else is or where they are going. Rain or shine, you know where you are going. Like you, I expect it to rain. Just don’t know when. Stay the course.

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                  • #24
                    I will read it later today when i get some free time.

                    A few thoughts for you:

                    1. so what?
                    My plan predicts stock prices will be higher in 10-20 years. If that fails, I am screwed but so is everything and everyone.

                    2. See point 1.
                    Buy the world. Hold = stay the course. Ignore the noise = news.

                    The media = news has become worse and worse. Biased nonsense with agendas. Echo chambers. Gross. Learn something or build something or do something.

                    3. Why does it matter what happens in the next 5 years? If you are not able to adapt & react to short term market changes (< 10 years) by either buying more via DCA and rebalancing according to IPS or doing nothing (which is what most should probably do) then your AA is suboptimal and your IPS is flawed.

                    I’ll read it later but if I change my plan i am likely foolish.

                    Also, this guy is an active hedge fund manager. Why would he tell anyone anything useful for free? He probably would not even tell his own mom what he really thinks. He might be selling his books or advertising for his firm or both but he ain’t giving out free information.
                    Any info from him is probably designed to entertain or sell your something at best.
                    Last edited by Tangler; 02-17-2022, 03:51 AM.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                      No. The closest you’ll get is insider trading (politicians are in this group). They can sometimes make moves before something happens but it’s also illegal. Long term they’re no better than anyone else. Lots of smart and rich people make bad investment decisions all the time.
                      Not illegal for congress. Those people suck.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Hank View Post
                        Nobody knows nothin’.

                        It’s helpful to make peace with the idea that you cannot predict the market over the short term. Over the long, long term, it seems like there might be a general trend.
                        This.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I recently listened to a Podcast with Ray Dalio, I really did not know to much about him prior. He sounds like a really smart and insightful guy, otherwise he would not be in the position he is , he also had some luck along the way. But I would not necessarily agree with his predictions for the future.

                          Charlie Munger would say, read books about things you don't agree with , it is much more insightful than reading about things you agree with.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                            Charlie Munger would say, read books about things you don't agree with , it is much more insightful than reading about things you agree with.
                            Do you think Charlie Munger is reading books about crypto?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                              Do you think Charlie Munger is reading books about crypto?
                              Books, probably not. About articles about crypto? Definitely.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                                I recently listened to a Podcast with Ray Dalio, I really did not know to much about him prior. He sounds like a really smart and insightful guy, otherwise he would not be in the position he is , he also had some luck along the way. But I would not necessarily agree with his predictions for the future.

                                Charlie Munger would say, read books about things you don't agree with , it is much more insightful than reading about things you agree with.
                                I read the article and i don’t necessarily disagree with him.

                                I just don’t think anyone can time anything or prevent anything and in the long run it is irrelevant.

                                He is selling books and getting publicity.

                                I cannot profit from his “guessing”.

                                He can profit nicely from the attention.

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