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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

    I'm sure Russia has had to incur some negative economic impacts from sanctions, but based on what I've read and heard, I'm skeptical of that degree of distress that you describe (if anything, it's the EU, not Russia, that is on the edge of economic catastrophe as a result of sanctions). But if the timeline as you say is truly just a matter of months until total collapse, I guess we'll find out soon if you're right.
    Might be EU is distressed by dependence on Russia for energy. That is an EU strategic decision, not sanctions. What could go wrong depending on a hostile nation for energy?
    There is a lesson to be learned there,

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry Ict
    replied
    Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

    Financial? 10 Trillion Ruble stockpile since 2014 is nearing tapped out with estimates at last for few more months. There's not enough inflow to keep up their burn. With its partial mobilization of the general population, large swaths of the working class has fled and you think they will send remittances back to the motherland?

    Don't believe western news. Sure. Check out Telegram russian channels and search Kherson. That's the current state of the Russian military.
    I'm sure Russia has had to incur some negative economic impacts from sanctions, but based on what I've read and heard, I'm skeptical of that degree of distress that you describe (if anything, it's the EU, not Russia, that is on the edge of economic catastrophe as a result of sanctions). But if the timeline as you say is truly just a matter of months until total collapse, I guess we'll find out soon if you're right.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

    The Russian military is even more advanced in some areas than the US, so I doubt that they're "relying" on military aid from those other countries. Did NK or Iran offer some type of military equipment that Russia accepted? That seems plausible, but as far as painting Russia - militarily, economically, or otherwise - as in a desperate situation needing to beg other countries for help, I'd be careful about pinning too much on what you read in western media. Remember all the predictions about how the west was turning "the Ruble to rubble" with sanctions? How'd that pan out?

    China and Russia have been launching joint military drills in response to recent events. They are much more than trade partners.
    Financial? 10 Trillion Ruble stockpile since 2014 is nearing tapped out with estimates at last for few more months. There's not enough inflow to keep up their burn. With its partial mobilization of the general population, large swaths of the working class has fled and you think they will send remittances back to the motherland?

    Don't believe western news. Sure. Check out Telegram russian channels and search Kherson. That's the current state of the Russian military.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry Ict
    replied
    Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

    China and Russia are trade partners at best at this time.

    You must not be following the Ukraine conflict. Russia is relying on direct Iranian and North Korean military support. Russia would LOVE to have China military assistance.

    China has sat on the sidelines this whole time militarily and simply buying really cheap Russian oil. Same with India, another large buyer of Russian military tech. Trade partners -- not allies.

    The Russian military is even more advanced in some areas than the US, so I doubt that they're "relying" on military aid from those other countries. Did NK or Iran offer some type of military equipment that Russia accepted? That seems plausible, but as far as painting Russia - militarily, economically, or otherwise - as in a desperate situation needing to beg other countries for help, I'd be careful about pinning too much on what you read in western media. Remember all the predictions about how the west was turning "the Ruble to rubble" with sanctions? How'd that pan out?

    China and Russia have been launching joint military drills in response to recent events. They are much more than trade partners.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

    Russia and China are allies in all but name. The reason China isn't sending "military assistance" is that that Russia, having one of the most powerful militaries in the world, likely doesn't need it. What Russia probably needed from China were certain items (including some tech produced in China's factories) affected by sanctions, and those items probably were provided.
    China and Russia are trade partners at best at this time.

    You must not be following the Ukraine conflict. Russia is relying on direct Iranian and North Korean military support. Russia would LOVE to have China military assistance.

    China has sat on the sidelines this whole time militarily and simply buying really cheap Russian oil. Same with India, another large buyer of Russian military tech. Trade partners -- not allies.



    Leave a comment:


  • Perry Ict
    replied
    Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post
    I'm curious when China will simply drive up and take Siberia -- there's no army left there.

    Russia has little to stop them and certainly wouldn't nuke China as it'll simply absorb that and give it back too on the way into Moscow.

    That's a lot easier for China than trying to pry Taiwan into submission.
    Is that a serious comment? China isn't going to do that. First of all, Russia and China are essentially allies. Second of all, either country invading the other would be a disaster for both, and each of them know that. This isn't a game of Risk... in real life two military superpowers going at each other in a war would be catastrophic.

    China will eventually take Taiwan, unless the US stops involving itself there.

    Leave a comment:


  • Perry Ict
    replied
    Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

    Scheme of things. Mexico is more important to USA than Russia is to China.

    China gets cheap oil from Russia and a source of exports to them. Some 'hi-tech' military like engines, but China has a pretty robust domestic program now.

    If China was remotely aligned with Russia, China would have lent military assistance ---it hasn't.
    Russia and China are allies in all but name. The reason China isn't sending "military assistance" is that that Russia, having one of the most powerful militaries in the world, likely doesn't need it. What Russia probably needed from China were certain items (including some tech produced in China's factories) affected by sanctions, and those items probably were provided.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    I'm curious when China will simply drive up and take Siberia -- there's no army left there.

    Russia has little to stop them and certainly wouldn't nuke China as it'll simply absorb that and give it back too on the way into Moscow.

    That's a lot easier for China than trying to pry Taiwan into submission.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hank
    replied
    Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post
    Oh? That's interesting. Has the world really changed to the point that we would accept China or Russia heavily arming their allies with high tech weaponry (or worse) at our border?
    Russia can’t arm itself adequately. Look at the supplies and training for Russian conscripts and the dependence on Iran for drones and North Korea for artillery shells.

    Most of the Russian economy was dependent on extractive industries. Oil, gas, timber, and round white diamonds from Siberia. Their few value added industries were IT, cyber crime related to IT, and arms sales to countries so awful that even the French wouldn’t sell to them.

    Recent battlefield performance of the second most powerful army in Ukraine means that countries that can avoid buying Russian arms will do so in the future. Turkey and China should see significantly better arms sales over the next two decades at the expense of Russia’s arms exports. This cuts off a vital source of hard foreign currency. It also means that the cost of researching, developing, and manufacturing domestic arms isn’t amortized over profitable additional foreign sales. That means a weaker Russian defense sector in the mid to long term.

    Legitimate white hat Russian IT workers have fled the country in droves. I suspect a fair number of the cyber criminals and scammers have left too to avoid conscription. (Some may have bribed their way out and remain in St. Petersburg or Moscow.). In fairness, quite a few hackers, cyber criminals, and other black hats were on Ukrainian soil before Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine in February, but I suspect most of the Ukrainian IT bad guys aren’t on very good terms with the Russian IT bad guys now.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Originally posted by Panscan View Post

    China is integral to Tesla and Russia is integral to China. It’s not hard to see why musk wants Russias power reassured.
    Scheme of things. Mexico is more important to USA than Russia is to China.

    China gets cheap oil from Russia and a source of exports to them. Some 'hi-tech' military like engines, but China has a pretty robust domestic program now.

    If China was remotely aligned with Russia, China would have lent military assistance ---it hasn't.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by Panscan View Post

    China is integral to Tesla and Russia is integral to China. It’s not hard to see why musk wants Russias power reassured.
    I have never viewed Musk’s style of hype of Tesla as favorable long term.
    BUT. I don’t pretend to understand “why” he pops off on issues in an amateur fashion in ways that are “out of his lane”.
    He very easily could have expressed his views privately to any parties involved. Just another “why” to speculate about.

    Leave a comment:


  • Panscan
    replied
    Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

    Elon actually seems willing to say what he thinks regardless of consequences. Whereas the NBA seems to toe the party line and isn’t interested in expressing any opinion opposing the current thing

    do you disagree?
    China is integral to Tesla and Russia is integral to China. It’s not hard to see why musk wants Russias power reassured.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    It all goes back to money. We’ve seen it with the NBA and various companies. Elon and Tesla are no different.
    A Life in Two Worlds.​ Yao Ming
    Yao seems to have started the money flow across the Pacific in 2002. When he joined the Rockets, Chinese broadcasting teams, team sponsorship deals (both ways) exploded. Yao still makes most of his substantial earnings from US companies. He is a member of CPPCC (an officially allowed political organization) and more importantly runs basketball in China, president of the Chinese Basketball Association (governing body of basketball in China).

    There was a time that doing business with China was viewed as wonderful thing.

    Leave a comment:


  • jacoavlu
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    I honestly don’t see how either Ukraine-Russia could personally benefit him unless it has to do with getting some money for Starlink but that’d be a drop in the bucket. Neither are buying Teslas and I’m not sure if either are big sources of mining for EV needs.
    he benefits from not having nuclear war. Like all of us.

    warhawks want to deny reality

    Leave a comment:


  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by jacoavlu View Post

    yeah I fail to connect Ukraine-Russia to China except where it’s a convenient excuse.

    let’s see where we’re at 3-6 months from now.
    I honestly don’t see how either Ukraine-Russia could personally benefit him unless it has to do with getting some money for Starlink but that’d be a drop in the bucket. Neither are buying Teslas and I’m not sure if either are big sources of mining for EV needs.

    Leave a comment:

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