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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Originally posted by Kamban View Post
    Without getting too political, I will be more worried about the financial implications of China invading and taking over Taiwan than Russia invading Ukraine.

    Taiwan is an electronics powerhouse. Once it goes, we have lost a ton of components that are vital to many industries. Going to war over Taiwan means that we have started WWIII since China won't back down, we will not win using conventional weapons and once you use the first nuke, all bets are off.

    China has a much better internal economy than Russia. It can survive with any amount of sanctions.. Their economy will get crimped, but so will ours and all other first, second and thirds world countries. They know that and we know that too.

    The person who is most interested in the current stand off is not Putin or Biden but Xi. He is far more intelligent than either of them and knows that once we cave in to Ukraine, we will do the same for Taiwan. Unfortunately we have spent our trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan and lost countless lives in those countries that our public is in no mood to stomach another war in a far off country that does not affect our peace. Add in the inflation and that we have tons of debt, the reality is once Putin attacks, we can only sit back and whimper.

    Geez, a nothingburger 10% market correction and folks are talking about WWIII?!?

    Insert serious eye roll here
    Last edited by FIREshrink; 02-23-2022, 09:05 PM.

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    • Reports of multiple explosions in Kyiv and bordering cities per BBC.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

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      • It's fine. The West is still buying oil and other commodities from Russia so it can't be that serious.

        Commodities Aren't Being Weaponized in Confrontation Over Ukraine, For Now - Bloomberg

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        • [QUOTE=Max Power;n321871][SIZE=14px][FONT=Tahoma]

          You guys do realize that you only pay taxes on GAINS, right? (/QUOTE]

          yes, yes I do.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Dusn View Post

            The problem is that the west cannot go to war with Russia over anything - Russia can keep invading more countries. My understanding is that Russia still has enough nuclear capabilities to destroy the entire world.

            Theres a saying in playwriting that “if you introduce a gun in the first act, you have to use it in the third act.”

            Unfortunately, nuclear weapons are that gun. We’ve ignored them for awhile but we have no solution to get rid of them. Eventually someone is going to be crazy or desperate enough to use them.

            Bertrand Russell in 1955, early in the nuclear age, wrote about control of nuclear weapons: “You may reasonably expect a man to walk a tightrope safely for ten minutes; it would be unreasonable to do so without accident for two hundred years.”
            My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kamban View Post
              Without getting too political, I will be more worried about the financial implications of China invading and taking over Taiwan than Russia invading Ukraine.

              Taiwan is an electronics powerhouse. Once it goes, we have lost a ton of components that are vital to many industries. Going to war over Taiwan means that we have started WWIII since China won't back down, we will not win using conventional weapons and once you use the first nuke, all bets are off.

              China has a much better internal economy than Russia. It can survive with any amount of sanctions.. Their economy will get crimped, but so will ours and all other first, second and thirds world countries. They know that and we know that too.

              The person who is most interested in the current stand off is not Putin or Biden but Xi. He is far more intelligent than either of them and knows that once we cave in to Ukraine, we will do the same for Taiwan. Unfortunately we have spent our trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan and lost countless lives in those countries that our public is in no mood to stomach another war in a far off country that does not affect our peace. Add in the inflation and that we have tons of debt, the reality is once Putin attacks, we can only sit back and whimper.
              Chances are good that Xi has known for a long time that the US would not intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan takeover. But there would be serious economic consequences. China has much greater incentive to remain a participant in good standing in the global economy than does Russia. Putin has accepted becoming a pariah state in exchange for getting his way in Ukraine and satisfying his sense of outrage and humiliation at the hands of NATO, and his ongoing regret about the fall of the Soviet Union. Continued economic growth is an existential imperative for the CCP. I suspect they will bide their time on Taiwan, and continue to play the long game. I hope events do not prove me wrong.
              My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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              • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post


                Geez, a nothingburger 10% market correction and folks are talking about WWIII?!?

                Insert serious eye roll here
                The correction is expected and insignificant.

                The fact that our country and western world was out played by Russia and the fact that China is watching; those are the concerns.

                The market is gonna market.

                Market is overdue for a correction. Not a major concern.

                China watching Afghanistan debacle and our response now is a major concern.

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                • Whelp, Putin is now talking about “denazifying” and tracking down “war criminals” and eliminating them so he can make Ukraine safe and free…. For people who were involved in the government, military and community leadership positions, and for vocal opponents, it’s going to be very dangerous times now. Many will be disappeared and some bloodlines will be ending shortly. I hope they can get out or at least get wives and children out of there.

                  “Fly, you fools!”

                  As a side note, I was aggressively paying the mortgage down. I’m going to let the last couple years of it ride, and start putting everything extra toward the market again starting this month, essentially DCAing into whatever slide is happening and ahead.

                  Comment


                  • Impressive volatility.
                    Russian stocks (RTS, MOEX) down 40% at one point today.

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                    • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
                      Whelp, Putin is now talking about “denazifying” and tracking down “war criminals” and eliminating them so he can make Ukraine safe and free…. For people who were involved in the government, military and community leadership positions, and for vocal opponents, it’s going to be very dangerous times now. Many will be disappeared and some bloodlines will be ending shortly. I hope they can get out or at least get wives and children out of there.

                      “Fly, you fools!”

                      As a side note, I was aggressively paying the mortgage down. I’m going to let the last couple years of it ride, and start putting everything extra toward the market again starting this month, essentially DCAing into whatever slide is happening and ahead.
                      I think everything you have said here is wise.

                      1. They should fly! Run! Hope they went last week!

                      2. Great time to buy. Your decision to buy slowly rather than pay extra to mortgage seems like a good strategic plan. I am slowly buying too. Interesting times.

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                      • I really admire the optimism that this is a correction only without any long term impact.
                        Regime change occurs internally and externally.
                        Alliances count. BATNA.
                        https://history.state.gov/milestones...1945/us-soviet
                        Russia and China are a formidable opponent, especially considering their alliances and influences.
                        Sanctions are economic blockades. The question becomes whether energy and supply chain alliances can be weaponized and who has the power. Ukraine is only one move in the game. This is not “messaging”. Both China and Russia want to expand influence, central government control.
                        Ironically, that desire is expressed in the “free world” democracies as well currently.
                        Go figure.

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                        • Looks like the Fed have found themselves with their backs really against the wall.

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                          • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                            Looks like the Fed have found themselves with their backs really against the wall.
                            Well they've used easy money as the solution to every problem for twenty five years. This means when the world really could use a little liquidity, they're pushing on a string and fanning the flames of an inflation fire at the same time. So yeah, they made their bed but we all get to lie in it.

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                            • Originally posted by Tangler View Post

                              I think everything you have said here is wise.

                              1. They should fly! Run! Hope they went last week!

                              2. Great time to buy. Your decision to buy slowly rather than pay extra to mortgage seems like a good strategic plan. I am slowly buying too. Interesting times.
                              Not sure why today is a great time to buy. Stocks are down to levels last seen.... eleven months ago. Eleven months ago I didn't think stocks were any kind of screaming buy. P/GDP, CAPE, still very high.

                              Call me when the time machine takes us back to spring 2020 values.

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                              • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post


                                Geez, a nothingburger 10% market correction and folks are talking about WWIII?!?

                                Insert serious eye roll here
                                Please roll those eyes more :-)

                                I talked about WWIII if China attacked Taiwan and we defended it and by chance nuclear weapons were to be used since we cannot win a conventional warfare with China in their backyard. I never said that Russia invading Ukraine would trigger a WWIII.

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