Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Max Power]

...OP said market would be down 3-6% by the end of last week. S&P closed Friday, 2/18 at 4,348, down 1.5% from 2/18...

Ok, so I am one half of a market day late... it is now down over 3%. Oops?
The point of this was just to start a discussion among those who look to max gains and minimize loss... and apparently get roasted by all who passively just watch their portfolio pitch and turn.

...We are still waiting for OP to share a plan for re-entering the market so no gains have been locked in...

When did I say I am not shorting S&P with some of the cash as I look for a good time to buy blocks?
That was incredibly easy to see today based on the news and the fact that all foreign markets floundered yesterday with NYSE on holiday.

There is a reason I sell a lot covered calls and generally do not buy calls: I know it is hard to be correct about both directionality and timing of market events. I had figured the early invasion events of today and yesterday were going to happen last week. No big deal.

I have not bought back in in terms of blocks of indexes or stock shares at all. I now have even more money become potentially available to sell stock contracts to cash with my covered calls on index and stock blocks expiring worthless last Friday. I am currently taking a wait-and-see approach right now. I am fine watching events continue to play out... I think any teenager could tell you the Biden address today won't exactly be a rallying point. If his speech is especially bad, I might short again tomorrow.

...I doubt the Ukrainian situation affects our investments much at all…

I sure wish investing worked that way.
I could've have retired yeeeeeeears ago.

[Random1]

I have not bought back in in terms of blocks of indexes or stock shares at all. I now have even more money become potentially available to sell stock contracts to cash with my covered calls on index and stock blocks expiring worthless last Friday.

Sounds complicated, I have a hard enough time picking red or black.

[Max Power]

...Sounds complicated, I have a hard enough time picking red or black.

Covered calls are the most basic (and my favorite) of all options. It is a strategy that millions of retired folks and investors and funds use every day.

But hey, tell ya what... lets get crazy, I will grab another contract of SDS in your honor. The real question is to let it ride or sell it on a covered call for Friday. How about that?

[nephron]

Why do we sanction individuals? It's not like they told Putin to send troops over the Ukraine or even that having them adversely effected will dissuade Putin from doing anything. I was listening to cnn go on about the sanctions stating how these people won't be able to go to fancy restaurants in other countries anymore. I guess those oligarchs planning their Disney vacations will have to post pone them. It just seems to go against the whole pretty widely accepted principal of not punishing family members for individuals crimes. Anyways, other then the nordic gas line (which seems like just a temporary permit thing), it doesn't look like any huge economic effects yet other then some energy spikes and markets going down due to uncertainty.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

If you listen to Putin’s speech yesterday, he was making race-related arguments over territories that he believes should belong to Russia. This was not limited to Ukraine, but also the other countries that once belonged to the Soviet Union. He wishes to rebuild the old Soviet Union. Talking about “blood ties”, “one people” and the “motherland”. My jaw drops looking at the similarities here. I hope I’m wrong, but these things in the past, progress over a few years.

The break-away regions didn’t want to join Russia. That’s part of the propaganda that has been going on. It’s how Russia takes these areas in pieces. Send in non-uniformed soldiers, then claim they are “rebels” fighting to join Russia.

We’ve become so naive in the US about these things it amazes me.

I’m not drastically changing my investing approach, but the next black swan event could turn out to be something we are long overdue for in the world.

[Turf Doc]

Ok, so I am one half of a market day late... it is now down over 3%. Oops?
The point of this was just to start a discussion among those who look to max gains and minimize loss... and apparently get roasted by all who passively just watch their portfolio pitch and turn.

When did I say I am not shorting S&P with some of the cash as I look for a good time to buy blocks?
That was incredibly easy to see today based on the news and the fact that all foreign markets floundered yesterday with NYSE on holiday.

There is a reason I sell a lot covered calls and generally do not buy calls: I know it is hard to be correct about both directionality and timing of market events. I had figured the early invasion events of today and yesterday were going to happen last week. No big deal.

I have not bought back in in terms of blocks of indexes or stock shares at all. I now have even more money become potentially available to sell stock contracts to cash with my covered calls on index and stock blocks expiring worthless last Friday. I am currently taking a wait-and-see approach right now. I am fine watching events continue to play out... I think any teenager could tell you the Biden address today won't exactly be a rallying point. If his speech is especially bad, I might short again tomorrow.

I sure wish investing worked that way.
I could've have retired yeeeeeeears ago.

I feel what you’re doing is closer to gambling than investing

[Tangler]

I feel what you’re doing is closer to gambling than investing

All a wild guess.

Could do anything?

I imagine in 20 years it will be higher.

Buy, hold, stay the course and ignore the noise.

If you have extra cash, buy, otherwise turn off news.

[Turf Doc]

All a wild guess.

Could do anything?

I imagine in 20 years it will be higher.

Buy, hold, stay the course and ignore the noise.

If you have extra cash, buy, otherwise turn off news.

Exactly. Whenever anything happens, i immediately look at the 20yr history of vtsax. When you look at it like that, it seems really silly to worry about anything going on. I predict whatever is going on right now is going to be a blip for a young investor.

[FIREshrink]

Ok, so I am one half of a market day late... it is now down over 3%. Oops?
The point of this was just to start a discussion among those who look to max gains and minimize loss... and apparently get roasted by all who passively just watch their portfolio pitch and turn.

When did I say I am not shorting S&P with some of the cash as I look for a good time to buy blocks?
That was incredibly easy to see today based on the news and the fact that all foreign markets floundered yesterday with NYSE on holiday.

There is a reason I sell a lot covered calls and generally do not buy calls: I know it is hard to be correct about both directionality and timing of market events. I had figured the early invasion events of today and yesterday were going to happen last week. No big deal.

I have not bought back in in terms of blocks of indexes or stock shares at all. I now have even more money become potentially available to sell stock contracts to cash with my covered calls on index and stock blocks expiring worthless last Friday. I am currently taking a wait-and-see approach right now. I am fine watching events continue to play out... I think any teenager could tell you the Biden address today won't exactly be a rallying point. If his speech is especially bad, I might short again tomorrow.

I sure wish investing worked that way.
I could've have retired yeeeeeeears ago.

I have no idea what you just wrote but I'm sure you'll tell us in a week or a month that you made a lot of money doing it.

You're gonna be right sometimes. You're going to be wrong sometimes. And one day you're maybe going to be so wrong that it kind of blows up the whole strategy. Like Cathy Woods .

Taking a shot with a small amount of money could be a hedge. Selling off 60% of your portfolio to eke out a 3% gain based on short term swings in the market seems crazy to me, like you can't even see how you might be wrong just once and the market moves without you and then your opportunity cost is 10-20-30+% and you can never get back to break even.

But I am grateful folks like you bring liquidity to the markets, that's good even for buy and hold investors like me.

[TheDangerZone]

When did I say I am not shorting S&P with some of the cash as I look for a good time to buy blocks?

Are we supposed to telepathically know what you're doing without you saying it?

[Tim]

I hope Biden is right.
I hope Putin is wrong.
I hope Max Power is right.
I have absolutely no evidence that any of the three will actually have a significant impact on my life, my NW, or any publicly trade stock. Today, tomorrow or how any stock price will react. I can spin some conspiracy theories if that helps. I doubt it.

https://www.imdb.com/video/vi2287385625?playlistId=tt0087985&ref_=vp_nxt_btn

I have seen this movie before, Red Dawn (August 10, 1984) At the time I thought it was great. Not a dang thing happened.

[Zaphod]

If you listen to Putin’s speech yesterday, he was making race-related arguments over territories that he believes should belong to Russia. This was not limited to Ukraine, but also the other countries that once belonged to the Soviet Union. He wishes to rebuild the old Soviet Union. Talking about “blood ties”, “one people” and the “motherland”. My jaw drops looking at the similarities here. I hope I’m wrong, but these things in the past, progress over a few years.

The break-away regions didn’t want to join Russia. That’s part of the propaganda that has been going on. It’s how Russia takes these areas in pieces. Send in uninformed soldiers, then claim they are “rebels” fighting to join Russia.

We’ve become so naive in the US about these things it amazes me.

I’m not drastically changing my investing approach, but the next black swan event could turn out to be something we are long overdue for in the world.

100

All going very predictably, like covid before it, we seem to just not believe the world stage can shift so dramatically so fast. Sure, highly unlikely, but its not impossible.

Read Putins July 21 essay, er, manifesto. The man is a zealot. He has been plotting and preparing for this for years, he has the countrys accounts set up to withstand severe sanctions (havent happened yet) and the upper hand in energy requirements for euro.

Idk anything about geopolitics, but I'll just keep assuming intent from actions, and it aint pretty thus far. Market has far bigger problems than Ukraine, though contrary to popular takes that likely makes things much worse (fed would like to continue accomodation but increase in costs/inflation likely increase at same time).

Can you believe the interesting times we live in?

[HikingDO]

I have seen this movie before, Red Dawn (August 10, 1984) At the time I thought it was great. Not a dang thing happened.

The original Red Dawn with Patrick Swayze was great, the remake, not so much.

[ShredtheGnar]

Ukraine aside, there are compounding issues which the crisis only makes worse. I think the Fed is going to be in a tight spot and it will be very interesting how they react to control inflation. They might have to force a recession, which no one wants to see. Well, except maybe Putin?

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

100

All going very predictably, like covid before it, we seem to just not believe the world stage can shift so dramatically so fast. Sure, highly unlikely, but its not impossible.

Read Putins July 21 essay, er, manifesto. The man is a zealot. He has been plotting and preparing for this for years, he has the countrys accounts set up to withstand severe sanctions (havent happened yet) and the upper hand in energy requirements for euro.

Idk anything about geopolitics, but I'll just keep assuming intent from actions, and it aint pretty thus far. Market has far bigger problems than Ukraine, though contrary to popular takes that likely makes things much worse (fed would like to continue accomodation but increase in costs/inflation likely increase at same time).

Can you believe the interesting times we live in?

It’s almost admirable (if it wasn’t our own demise). Russia and China are playing the long game. Using intelligent strategy and Machiavellian techniques looking three moves ahead, while we are squabbling over nonsense and trivial issues, and left reacting to the courses they have dictated. We look weak and indecisive at this point. Not great, in a world that is naturally harsh and dangerous. I’m hoping for a pendulum swing in our culture soon. We can be decent and fair, but also strong at the same time.