Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[jacoavlu]

Basically exactly what we are doing now which is working beautifully.

define "working beautifully".

[xraygoggles]

this was Elon’s tweet about the war a month ago for which he was roundly chastised including here on this forum though of course no one discussed any specific criticism or alternative ideas toward peace

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000?s=46&t=Gx14lkGEpwO9m1EZKpp7yw

“Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.“

There are reports Elon spoke to Putin or one of his higher ups before tweeting out his horrible take. But even if he didn't, why in the world do you think this is a good solution?

Btw, Elon has also said in a not-so-subtle way that China should have hegemony over Taiwan. His geopolitical views tend to lean very right-wing and authoritarian friendly - not the American way.

[Dusn]

define "working beautifully".

The best option is to create enough pain for Putin to discourage any further invasions but not escalate the war. I don’t know Putin and so I don’t know where that line is.

But when Ukrainians are the ones willingly losing their lives in this fight, if we were to try to pressure them into giving up when they’re winning because our gas prices are too high, then that would reveal a profound weakness of us and democracies in general. Putin and Xi would realize they don’t even need to win on the battlefield, they just need to create a little bit of economic discomfort and we’ll fold.

I’d just leave it up to Ukraine while reminding them to keep diplomatic options open.

[FIREshrink]

authoritarian friendly - not the American way.

sadly, increasingly the American way.

[Panscan]

define "working beautifully".

Ensuring Ukraine sovereignty, causing havoc in Russia, China to a lesser extent and even Europe less so, while harming us the least, in the background of reasserting US geopolitical power

[jacoavlu]

Ensuring Ukraine sovereignty, causing havoc in Russia, China to a lesser extent and even Europe less so, while harming us the least, in the background of reasserting US geopolitical power

you realize there are large parts of Ukraine being controlled by Russian military right?

[jacoavlu]

I’d just leave it up to Ukraine while reminding them to keep diplomatic options open.

"leave it up to Ukraine" means we keep spending our money to support them

[jacoavlu]

There are reports Elon spoke to Putin or one of his higher ups before tweeting out his horrible take. But even if he didn't, why in the world do you think this is a good solution?

Btw, Elon has also said in a not-so-subtle way that China should have hegemony over Taiwan. His geopolitical views tend to lean very right-wing and authoritarian friendly - not the American way.

I think peace and minimizing lives lost is a good solution, and i think its unlikely at this point that Russia leaves and Ukraine retains control of all of their prior territory.

if we are playing our part in this as others have suggested for our own selfish interests while Ukrainians and Russians die, I think that's shameful

[FIREshrink]

russians dying have only Russian leaders to blame.

ukranians dying also only have Russian leaders to blame.

big difference.

how easy it is to sacrifice the liberty of others for your own temporary peace. ask neville chamberlain how that worked out for the world.

[jacoavlu]

russians dying have only Russian leaders to blame.

ukranians dying also only have Russian leaders to blame.

big difference.

how easy it is to sacrifice the liberty of others for your own temporary peace. ask neville chamberlain how that worked out for the world.

if you knew the war was unwinnable, certainly you would agree that supporting Ukraine to prolong the war would result in unnecessary Ukrainian deaths, right?

[jacoavlu]

russians dying have only Russian leaders to blame.

ukranians dying also only have Russian leaders to blame.

big difference.

how easy it is to sacrifice the liberty of others for your own temporary peace. ask neville chamberlain how that worked out for the world.

also note, the proposal suggested by Elon included a UN supervised vote of the annexed regions (not including Crimea) and Russia leaves if that is the will of the people

so who defines those people's liberty?

[FIREshrink]

if you knew the war was unwinnable, certainly you would agree that supporting Ukraine to prolong the war would result in unnecessary Ukrainian deaths, right?

to paraphrase donald rumsfeld that's a known unknown. it's a strawman argument to engage in unknowable hypotheticals.

at any rate if ukranians want to fight to the death and it meets our strategic national interests ie preventing spread of Axis power into one of our allies and right up to the doorstep of NATO - then why shouldn't we support that? And why is it acceptable to you that Russia invade right up to our NATO doorstep but not ok if that exact same country chooses itself to lean toward NATO? in either case Russia sharesa border with NATO or its proxy - what's the difference?

While i'm not happy Russia illegally invaded Eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014, that status quo existed without a hot war and Ukraine was not trying to take those areas back. Then Russia upped the ante with a medieval scorched earth campaign and the civilized world barring autocratic China and its client states rightfully fought back.

I said six months ago we need an exit ramp for Putin. The pre-February 24 borders are a start but formal recognition of those illegally seized lands without a free election and reparations to Ukraine for the economic and human catastrophe Putin has inflicted is not a serious proposal.

[FIREshrink]

also note, the proposal suggested by Elon included a UN supervised vote of the annexed regions (not including Crimea) and Russia leaves if that is the will of the people

so who defines those people's liberty?

probably 1/3 of Texas would like to secede from the US. Should we offer them a UN sanctioned election and abide by the results?

[Tim]

As Kamban mentioned, we don't even have to speculate on whether we'd tolerate Russia or China arming nearby countries with missiles aimed at our cities, it's right there in the historical record.

Hopefully we can all agree that diplomacy is the better alternative to WW3 and risk of nuclear annihilation.

This is an extremely naive take on history. "It is right there in the historical record" completely ignores the changes in the world that have taken place.
Fighting the last battle is a HUGE mistake. News flash, the world is different. It really is, to make the assumptions that "it's right there" is lunacy.

[Perry Ict]

at any rate if ukranians want to fight to the death and it meets our strategic national interests ie preventing spread of Axis power into one of our allies and right up to the doorstep of NATO - then why shouldn't we support that?

While it's apparently true that some of our leaders cynically believe this proxy war to be in our national interests, the supposition that Ukrainians wish "to fight to the death" is questionable. Western actions this year and going back some time before that suggest that Ukrainians are basically being used as a tool to weaken Russia at the expense of their country, and their blood. That is not something I can support.