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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • #76
    Wow, looks like Vlad might invade Ukraine after all. I revise my previous probability assessment!

    Is it brinkmanship or does he have to prove he’s tough to the other gangsters? Will US defence underestimate brinkmanship (like WMD in Iraq). It’s fascinating to watch.

    I’m happy to HODL and thank goodness my investments don’t rely on my geopolitical prognostication abilities.

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    • #77
      I am not really sure how to take this thread. Mostly fun, I know. But I doubt the Ukrainian situation affects our investments much at all. Now border shutdowns of trade by frustrated truckers and their supporters, that could affect the economy! Mostly, I find myself hoping the government does not do something irreparably stupid so that market mechanisms can restore the supply chain.

      What would be stupid? Well, there is a geopolitical chain here. Putin watched Biden flail in AFG and decided to push on Ukraine. He’ll end up with the eastern provinces and a “win.” Enough for him for now. China biding it’s time during the Olympics, but watching Biden flail in Ukraine and may decide to push on Taiwan. We go to war to defend the people of Formosa. Trade with Asia grinds to a standstill. Stupid. I’d very much like to be wrong.

      Since I can’t predict, I’ll keep DCA into my total stock market index. I’m close to deciding to work two more years for other reasons. But as a result, I find that I am not too worried about a year or so of down market. Although I’d prefer a bear to a crash…

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      • #78
        I don’t know enough about the geopolitics there to really have a good idea on what’s going on. I’ve seen a person say this was basically the worst case scenario for Putin and now he’s trying to save face and I’ve seen another say this went how he expected. Long term it doesn’t affect me. I did see an interesting piece about the market and war and, shockingly, sometimes the market goes down and sometimes it goes up.

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        • #79
          Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
          I don’t know enough about the geopolitics there to really have a good idea on what’s going on. I’ve seen a person say this was basically the worst case scenario for Putin and now he’s trying to save face and I’ve seen another say this went how he expected. Long term it doesn’t affect me. I did see an interesting piece about the market and war and, shockingly, sometimes the market goes down and sometimes it goes up.
          The problem with current events is that nobody can judge them based on available information today
          True picture of a major international crisis only emerges about 10 to 15 years later
          or if Wikileaks happens

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          • #80
            The Seinfeld clip was the first thing I thought of too, I must be of a certain age (child or at least a teen of the 90s).

            But more seriously, I think this fracas will generate a ton of refugees. Besides Lutheran Refugee service (https://www.lirs.org/) any other way to support those poor souls affected by this conflict? Clearly, the US did NOT step up to its guarantees == security of Ukraine's borders was guaranteed by numerous signatories, US among them when Ukraine unilaterally gave up its legacy soviet nuclear armament; this guarantee was violated with Russian annexation of Crimea and looks to be violated again soon. Perhaps the US administration will do the right thing this time and welcome Ukrainian refugees as well as support their relocation to Western Ukraine and nearby European countries (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Slovakia). And do not underestimate the repression people in any of the occupied territories -- there will be tens of thousands of deaths and "disappearances". So again, I will look at ways to support Ukraine, including and not limited to LIRS and share with the community here.

            In the meanwhile, for some perspective, I recommend a quick if not a light read, a classic by Nobel prize winner Solzhenitsyn, "One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich".

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            • #81
              Originally posted by Marko-ER View Post
              The Seinfeld clip was the first thing I thought of too, I must be of a certain age (child or at least a teen of the 90s).

              But more seriously, I think this fracas will generate a ton of refugees. Besides Lutheran Refugee service (https://www.lirs.org/) any other way to support those poor souls affected by this conflict? Clearly, the US did NOT step up to its guarantees == security of Ukraine's borders was guaranteed by numerous signatories, US among them when Ukraine unilaterally gave up its legacy soviet nuclear armament; this guarantee was violated with Russian annexation of Crimea and looks to be violated again soon. Perhaps the US administration will do the right thing this time and welcome Ukrainian refugees as well as support their relocation to Western Ukraine and nearby European countries (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Slovakia). And do not underestimate the repression people in any of the occupied territories -- there will be tens of thousands of deaths and "disappearances". So again, I will look at ways to support Ukraine, including and not limited to LIRS and share with the community here.

              In the meanwhile, for some perspective, I recommend a quick if not a light read, a classic by Nobel prize winner Solzhenitsyn, "One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich".
              I like for things to be black and white but this is nowhere near that. It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are self-proclaimed breakaway states. How many resources should we devote to this when the people that live in these regions are seemingly fine with this? This is a 'not my circus, not my monkeys' situation. Now, if Russia were to truly invade non-separatists areas then we'd have a different situation but I also don't know how many resources we should devote to that situation, either.

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              • #82
                So....OP was right

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by Marko-ER View Post
                  The Seinfeld clip was the first thing I thought of too, I must be of a certain age (child or at least a teen of the 90s).

                  But more seriously, I think this fracas will generate a ton of refugees. Besides Lutheran Refugee service (https://www.lirs.org/) any other way to support those poor souls affected by this conflict? Clearly, the US did NOT step up to its guarantees == security of Ukraine's borders was guaranteed by numerous signatories, US among them when Ukraine unilaterally gave up its legacy soviet nuclear armament; this guarantee was violated with Russian annexation of Crimea and looks to be violated again soon. Perhaps the US administration will do the right thing this time and welcome Ukrainian refugees as well as support their relocation to Western Ukraine and nearby European countries (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Slovakia). And do not underestimate the repression people in any of the occupied territories -- there will be tens of thousands of deaths and "disappearances". So again, I will look at ways to support Ukraine, including and not limited to LIRS and share with the community here.

                  In the meanwhile, for some perspective, I recommend a quick if not a light read, a classic by Nobel prize winner Solzhenitsyn, "One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich".
                  Thanks for sharing, first I have heard of this organization. I will donate to LIRS out of our DAF today.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by Craigslist View Post
                    So....OP was right
                    OP said there would be war. There isn't an actual war, at least not yet.

                    OP said market would be down 3-6% by the end of last week. S&P closed Friday, 2/18 at 4,348, down 1.5% from 2/18.

                    So far, I'm seeing 0 for 2. We are still waiting for OP to share a plan for re-entering the market so no gains have been locked in. Also unclear if OP realized capital gains when selling and going to cash. Now, the market might tank further and we might go to war. Tons of people make predictions about the future. As always, some of them will be correct. Does that mean their process is fool proof? Almost certainly not.

                    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                    Market doesn't like war... never has. This might be the most predictable dip since COVID started...

                    I would say probably down 3-6% by week's end. The bottom will depend on the headlines.

                    And yeah, I did put my money where my prediction is... sold basically everything that isn't locked out on a covered call (so roughly half of my stocks/indexes sold and over 60% of my overall portfolio to cash now).

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                      I like for things to be black and white but this is nowhere near that. It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are self-proclaimed breakaway states. How many resources should we devote to this when the people that live in these regions are seemingly fine with this? This is a 'not my circus, not my monkeys' situation. Now, if Russia were to truly invade non-separatists areas then we'd have a different situation but I also don't know how many resources we should devote to that situation, either.
                      Agreed
                      remember we went to ww1 based on Zimmerman telegram fearful Mexico might retake what we took from them ?
                      personally I feel more needs to be done to engage Russia as a partner and not adversary does not mean we give into every thuggish impulse of Putin either
                      we should have handled the situation in 90s much better , it’s not all Biden or Trumps fault

                      give putin a symbolic face saving gesture , try to wrest him away from China

                      Ukrainians have suffered immensely too under nazis and communists yes but this is not the world of 1939
                      our media does not get tired of making false analogies with ww2 where every peacemaker is a chamberlain and every chest thumping war monger is Churchill

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                        I like for things to be black and white but this is nowhere near that. It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are self-proclaimed breakaway states. How many resources should we devote to this when the people that live in these regions are seemingly fine with this? This is a 'not my circus, not my monkeys' situation. Now, if Russia were to truly invade non-separatists areas then we'd have a different situation but I also don't know how many resources we should devote to that situation, either.
                        Black and white is never as easy as it appears.
                        Truly is a judgement that can be deceiving.
                        Truckers in Ottawa for instance don’t seem to be welcomed. I would guess a truck bringing wine for Trudeau would be viewed as a different color.

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Craigslist View Post
                          So....OP was right
                          He COULD be right eventually, but keep in mind that the Vix is currently at 30, which means an expected annualized change in the S&P of 30% - either way – with a 68% probability of being true (1 standard deviation).

                          What that means practically is that at current Vix levels, there is going to be a lot of volatility daily: both up and down days.

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                          • #88
                            one of my favorite things about what i've learned from WCI is that i am watching the market dip with absolutely no feelings at all aside from, "oh, well, i wish it would go up?"

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                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Craigslist View Post
                              So....OP was right
                              He was already wrong about last week being down 3-6% after calling it the most predictable dip since COVID started. You can still end up being right despite flawed thinking/reasoning. I have no doubt the market will go down 3-6%, at a minimum, at some point this year. The trick is when that will happen. What if it’s after it goes up a bunch? Then you’ve got to have a plan to get back into the market and so far his plan is going to be to wing it. As I said before, nobody is 100% right or wrong every time but it’s near impossible to try to time the market and continue to come out ahead. I could see the market going down much further but I can also see it going up from here.

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                              • #90
                                I have no doubt the market will go down 3-6%, at a minimum, at some point this year.

                                Maybe you will be right sooner, rather than later.

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