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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • "And if you want to know what ruthlessness by governments actually looks like, you don't have to look beyond our own seats of government."
    No saying our government, actually our politicians, is completely innocent (i.e. the higher the gas prices the better), but are you really saying it is equivalent?

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    • Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

      I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree for now and see in 5 to 10 years whose guess is more accurate. Most of all though, I disagree with the idea that this is some kind of zero-sum game on a global scale, that if Russia or China rise economically then it must necessarily mean a bad quality of life for everyone else or that those countries can only improve their economic standing by ruthless means. And if you want to know what ruthlessness by governments actually looks like, you don't have to look beyond our own seats of government.
      I think globalisation will make a comeback at some point.
      On the one hand, Chinese equities are cheap.
      On the other hand, there is definitely a cult of personality with Xi and this to me makes China still uninvestable.

      I love the Uranium story though and used the recent market turbulance to get a nice position.

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      • China RE is problematic. some banks are freezing withdrawals.. don't sound good.

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        • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

          I think globalisation will make a comeback at some point.
          I guess it depends on what is meant by globalization. Countries will always trade with each other to some extent. But I believe the idea of making nations as dependent as they've been on fragile supply chains, mostly for purposes of corporate profit, is on the decline. The push away from this is happening all over the world, including within the US. I imagine that even within the US government, it's been realized that it isn't good for the health of the country to be dependent on other countries (such as China and Russia, for example) for items such as semiconductors or critical military parts, regardless of how effective such a system might be for enriching CEOs and investors.

          Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post
          On the one hand, Chinese equities are cheap.
          On the other hand, there is definitely a cult of personality with Xi and this to me makes China still uninvestable.
          I don't think Xi or the Chinese government policies are primarily what make China equities a risky investment. What we saw with Russia is that, more likely, the US government, through its sanctions, will try to punish adversarial countries, and the collateral damage will be US investors, possibly hurting them even more than the countries they are intended to punish. Either way, it's a risk to be mindful of.

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          • Originally posted by Perry Ict View Post

            I guess it depends on what is meant by globalization. Countries will always trade with each other to some extent. But I believe the idea of making nations as dependent as they've been on fragile supply chains, mostly for purposes of corporate profit, is on the decline. The push away from this is happening all over the world, including within the US. I imagine that even within the US government, it's been realized that it isn't good for the health of the country to be dependent on other countries (such as China and Russia, for example) for items such as semiconductors or critical military parts, regardless of how effective such a system might be for enriching CEOs and investors.



            I don't think Xi or the Chinese government policies are primarily what make China equities a risky investment. What we saw with Russia is that, more likely, the US government, through its sanctions, will try to punish adversarial countries, and the collateral damage will be US investors, possibly hurting them even more than the countries they are intended to punish. Either way, it's a risk to be mindful of.
            The comparative advantage benefits of trade between countries at different levels of income and development is beneficial for most of the transactors. It will be interesting to see whether this is really pared back in the long term. On the other hand you also have the supply chain Peter Zeihan type viewpoint as you point out. I can see merit to both sides and have no real idea what will turn out to be the case.

            I was thinking over the last few months about China tech. I think it could be a great investment in the next decade. I would only be interested in it after a decade of serious dissapointments. Like say the US tech bubble deflating, then in 5-10 years, Chinese tech could be good value if there was a catayst for political regime change.

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