Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Tim]

"And if you want to know what ruthlessness by governments actually looks like, you don't have to look beyond our own seats of government."
No saying our government, actually our politicians, is completely innocent (i.e. the higher the gas prices the better), but are you really saying it is equivalent?

[Dont_know_mind]

I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree for now and see in 5 to 10 years whose guess is more accurate. Most of all though, I disagree with the idea that this is some kind of zero-sum game on a global scale, that if Russia or China rise economically then it must necessarily mean a bad quality of life for everyone else or that those countries can only improve their economic standing by ruthless means. And if you want to know what ruthlessness by governments actually looks like, you don't have to look beyond our own seats of government.

I think globalisation will make a comeback at some point.
On the one hand, Chinese equities are cheap.
On the other hand, there is definitely a cult of personality with Xi and this to me makes China still uninvestable.

I love the Uranium story though and used the recent market turbulance to get a nice position.

[triad]

China RE is problematic. some banks are freezing withdrawals.. don't sound good.

[Perry Ict]

I think globalisation will make a comeback at some point.

I guess it depends on what is meant by globalization. Countries will always trade with each other to some extent. But I believe the idea of making nations as dependent as they've been on fragile supply chains, mostly for purposes of corporate profit, is on the decline. The push away from this is happening all over the world, including within the US. I imagine that even within the US government, it's been realized that it isn't good for the health of the country to be dependent on other countries (such as China and Russia, for example) for items such as semiconductors or critical military parts, regardless of how effective such a system might be for enriching CEOs and investors.

On the one hand, Chinese equities are cheap.
On the other hand, there is definitely a cult of personality with Xi and this to me makes China still uninvestable.

I don't think Xi or the Chinese government policies are primarily what make China equities a risky investment. What we saw with Russia is that, more likely, the US government, through its sanctions, will try to punish adversarial countries, and the collateral damage will be US investors, possibly hurting them even more than the countries they are intended to punish. Either way, it's a risk to be mindful of.

[Dont_know_mind]

I guess it depends on what is meant by globalization. Countries will always trade with each other to some extent. But I believe the idea of making nations as dependent as they've been on fragile supply chains, mostly for purposes of corporate profit, is on the decline. The push away from this is happening all over the world, including within the US. I imagine that even within the US government, it's been realized that it isn't good for the health of the country to be dependent on other countries (such as China and Russia, for example) for items such as semiconductors or critical military parts, regardless of how effective such a system might be for enriching CEOs and investors.



I don't think Xi or the Chinese government policies are primarily what make China equities a risky investment. What we saw with Russia is that, more likely, the US government, through its sanctions, will try to punish adversarial countries, and the collateral damage will be US investors, possibly hurting them even more than the countries they are intended to punish. Either way, it's a risk to be mindful of.

The comparative advantage benefits of trade between countries at different levels of income and development is beneficial for most of the transactors. It will be interesting to see whether this is really pared back in the long term. On the other hand you also have the supply chain Peter Zeihan type viewpoint as you point out. I can see merit to both sides and have no real idea what will turn out to be the case.

I was thinking over the last few months about China tech. I think it could be a great investment in the next decade. I would only be interested in it after a decade of serious dissapointments. Like say the US tech bubble deflating, then in 5-10 years, Chinese tech could be good value if there was a catayst for political regime change.

[fatlittlepig]

It's turned into a stalemate. It looks like from on both sides of the aisle the focus has gone from helping Ukraine to punishing Putin. The little blue and yellow flags on Twitter posts and handles are disappearing and no one is doing photo ops with Zelensky.

I think the attention of the world has moved on but we're still bankrolling a war, it's doing tremendous damage and I can't see that it's helping anyone at this point.

For those still following the war,

It’s a surreal thing to read the front page of the NYTimes and see that Russian generals have had high level discussions regarding the use of tactile nuclear weapons.

Recently a letter was released by a group of politicians recommending to President Biden to pursue a diplomatic end to the war. When the letter was met with opposition the politicians quickly distanced themselves from the letter and the leader of the group hilariously claimed that the letter was released without her knowledge by a staffer. It’s never a good thing when debate and voices are stifled.

[Lordosis]

For those still following the war,

It’s a surreal thing to read the front page of the NYTimes and see that Russian generals have had high level discussions regarding the use of tactile nuclear weapons.

Recently a letter was released by a group of politicians recommending to President Biden to pursue a diplomatic end to the war. When the letter was met with opposition the politicians quickly distanced themselves from the letter and the leader of the group hilariously claimed that the letter was released without her knowledge by a staffer. It’s never a good thing when debate and voices are stifled.

I doubt we will do anything substantial until after nov 8th. Do not want to rock the boat this close to election day. Maybe next week. Maybe...

[jacoavlu]

For those still following the war,

It’s a surreal thing to read the front page of the NYTimes and see that Russian generals have had high level discussions regarding the use of tactile nuclear weapons.

Recently a letter was released by a group of politicians recommending to President Biden to pursue a diplomatic end to the war. When the letter was met with opposition the politicians quickly distanced themselves from the letter and the leader of the group hilariously claimed that the letter was released without her knowledge by a staffer. It’s never a good thing when debate and voices are stifled.

Elon Musk recently tweeted about the war and his ideas toward a negotiated end, which involved some Ukrainian concessions, and you had folks here shaming him.

[CordMcNally]

I think everyone is over the war outside of Ukraine/Russia. Zelenskyy was initial seen as this hero but now not so much. I had read an article a few days ago about how Biden reportedly got upset with Zelenskyy because he hasn't seemed grateful for the cash, weapon assistance, etc. but just continues to ask for more and say the help given isn't enough. I don't blame Biden. This seems to be a recurring theme in recent life...it's never enough.

[fatlittlepig]

The war has predictably entered a more unpredictable and volatile phase.

[Kamban]

I think everyone is over the war outside of Ukraine/Russia. Zelenskyy was initial seen as this hero but now not so much. I had read an article a few days ago about how Biden reportedly got upset with Zelenskyy because he hasn't seemed grateful for the cash, weapon assistance, etc. but just continues to ask for more and say the help given isn't enough. I don't blame Biden. This seems to be a recurring theme in recent life...it's never enough.

I have been saying this from the beginning. We are just prolonging the war by giving weapons to Zelensky rather than try and negotiate a settlement. We could have used the $50B+ here rather than send there. And Zelensky is as corrupt and ruthless as Putin. We should have kept our noses out of this war but we did not. And Europe is suffering because of the sanctions.

[fatlittlepig]

I have been saying this from the beginning. We are just prolonging the war by giving weapons to Zelensky rather than try and negotiate a settlement. We could have used the $50B+ here rather than send there. And Zelensky is as corrupt and ruthless as Putin. We should have kept our noses out of this war but we did not. And Europe is suffering because of the sanctions.

I don't think we should go down to road where we are placing a moral equivalency between the two. I mean it's pretty obvious that what Putin has done and is doing is beyond the pale, especially with the recent attacks on civilian infrastructure. Diplomacy will be the solution. The odd thing about this situation, and I haven't quite figured it out, is why support for Ukraine has morphed into a situation where discussion of diplomacy or increased oversight of funding has become off limits.

[Panscan]

I have been saying this from the beginning. We are just prolonging the war by giving weapons to Zelensky rather than try and negotiate a settlement. We could have used the $50B+ here rather than send there. And Zelensky is as corrupt and ruthless as Putin. We should have kept our noses out of this war but we did not. And Europe is suffering because of the sanctions.

The goal is suffering for everyone besides america. It’s a financial world war we are waging and asserting our position. Weakening China and Russia, the entire point.

[Hank]

The war could be over by the weekend. The Russians are more than welcome to march back across the border and not return.

[jacoavlu]

The odd thing about this situation, and I haven't quite figured it out, is why support for [insert current thing] has morphed into a situation where discussion of [any opposition to or questioning of the current thing] has become off limits.

fify