Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Perry Ict]

It's turned into a stalemate. It looks like from on both sides of the aisle the focus has gone from helping Ukraine to punishing Putin. The little blue and yellow flags on Twitter posts and handles are disappearing and no one is doing photo ops with Zelensky.

I think the attention of the world has moved on but we're still bankrolling a war, it's doing tremendous damage and I can't see that it's helping anyone at this point.

Yep! Our government bungled this one badly. The policies the administration implemented are only speeding up the process of the downfall of the US empire while needlessly increasing the pain of US (and EU) citizens.

[burritos]

Anyone thinking that Russia ultimately will be a vassal state of China?

[Perry Ict]

I don't think so. I would say that Russia is an independent rising great power which will have a strong say (along with China, and, yes, the US still) in the "world order" of the future.

[FIREshrink]

I don't think so. I would say that Russia is an independent rising great power which will have a strong say (along with China, and, yes, the US still) in the "world order" of the future.

Russia is in terminal decline, population, per Capita GDP, cultural influence, conventional military strength. It literally has 3 commodities, gas, oil, nukes. Those will put a floor under its demise but compared to China they are nothing.

[burritos]

Russia is in terminal decline, population, per Capita GDP, cultural influence, conventional military strength. It literally has 3 commodities, gas, oil, nukes. Those will put a floor under its demise but compared to China they are nothing.

China remembers history: What the West calls the "Boxer Rebellion", China calls the 8 nation war where Japan, Russia, England, France, Italy, Austria-Hungary, India and the US allied themselves to militarily secure their interests in China around 1900. Biggest winner? Russia. They secured the land that they had taken from the Qing dynasty(which to be honest was slowly imploding) during the Amur annexation(around the time we were in our civil war). 350,000 sq miles(texas + 1/2 califonia).

China wants it back. They need the resources. They need land. China has 10 cities with more people than all of resource rich Siberia. Weakly prop up an imploding Putin era. Russia's decline eventually evolves to low grade civil war. Create some kind of china-ethno crisis ruse on the sino-russia border. Send in troops to protect the citizens. Will the west care? ************************ no. Free media entertainment at no cost to the 'merican taxpayer.

China doesn't have the next-quarter's-profit-mentality. They have 100 year plans.

Just speculation. Would be an entertaining flex.

[fatlittlepig]

who would’ve guessed that being in a war against an enemy without wanting to admit to being at war by helping another country fight that enemy and without agreeing to what the end game is wouldn’t work. So what’s our ROI on the 50 billion and how was it spent, how much went to the Ukrainian people.

[nastle]

I don't think so. I would say that Russia is an independent rising great power which will have a strong say (along with China, and, yes, the US still) in the "world order" of the future.

Russia golden yrs were 1950 to 1990
they are in free fall
the best scenario for them is to stab PRC in the back and ally with Europe but I fear it’s too late for that now

[CordMcNally]

Russia golden yrs were 1950 to 1990
they are in free fall
the best scenario for them is to stab PRC in the back and ally with Europe but I fear it’s too late for that now

Don’t underestimate the world of hurt Europe is going to be in with fossil fuels over the next several years.

[Perry Ict]

Russia is in terminal decline, population, per Capita GDP, cultural influence, conventional military strength. It literally has 3 commodities, gas, oil, nukes. Those will put a floor under its demise but compared to China they are nothing.

Well, obviously nobody can perfectly predict the future..but my guess is a lot of people who share your thoughts are going to be surprised 5 to 10 years from now about the state of the world. Putting aside the comments about population decline (which is "a problem" in many places around the world including China), I would disagree with you on the importance (re:gdp) or reality (re: Russia's conventional military strength, considering the ongoing dismantling of arguably NATO's best army) of those other criteria you listed.

Specifically with regard to GDP, the western world is waking up to the reality of GDPs flaws (as a measure of financial strength) as we watched economic sanctions boomerang while the ruble and Russian economy held firm. The gdp of big macs and lattes were withdrawn from Russian economy while the west cut itself off from the gdp of Russian energy, rocket engines, and food, and it hasn't worked out too well. That's obviously a bit of an oversimplification, but it's just to illustrate why I think GDP measures incorrectly led people to believe that sanctions would have the opposite effect than reality. It's also why I think the future is going to be different than people are anticipating. If you look at what's going on geopolitically, Russia and China, along with other BRICS nations like India and Brazil, are spearheading a new financial system that will function alongside the western financial system that has been in place for decades.

In any case, is any of this investable or good for us, financially or otherwise? I have no clue, maybe not. But I also don't believe that the rise of Russia, China, etc has to be a bad thing for most of us here in the US, unless our leaders foolishly lead us into direct military confrontation (accidentally or intentionally).

[Perry Ict]

Don’t underestimate the world of hurt Europe is going to be in with fossil fuels over the next several years.

This. Europe is a lovely place to visit, but I would not want to be living there right now given the economic situation.

[Perry Ict]

who would’ve guessed that being in a war against an enemy without wanting to admit to being at war by helping another country fight that enemy and without agreeing to what the end game is wouldn’t work. So what’s our ROI on the 50 billion and how was it spent, how much went to the Ukrainian people.

The ROI for a select few people is very good. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of US citizens, the Ukrainian people, and the rest of the world, the ROI is deeply negative, financially and otherwise. As if we didn't need more proof that our government is totally dysfunctional.

[bovie]

Don’t underestimate the world of hurt Europe is going to be in with fossil fuels over the next several years.

Agreed. And gas is already like $10/gallon.

Makes our situation look like a fire sale!

[FIREshrink]

In five to ten years Russia will have less global influence than it has today. That's assuming halfway competent western leadership which is not a given. But neither is it given that China or Russia can muddle through unscathed. They are far more ruthless than us which counts but so does money and if you think some viable competitive currency exists to surpass the US by 2030 that's just fantasy, same fantasy as BTC HODLers but still fantasy. That doesn't concern me at all.

China has a serious population problem. By 2040 they will have 400 million people over age 60 which is as much as all of the US will have. They will grow old before getting anywhere near as rich as us. They are net energy importers while we are exporters. People do not want to immigrate to China and never will as long as it remains Communist/totalitarian. They are serious rivals and we should not underestimate their resolve, their pain tolerance, or their sophistication, but we have many many advantages.

[Perry Ict]

In five to ten years Russia will have less global influence than it has today. That's assuming halfway competent western leadership which is not a given. But neither is it given that China or Russia can muddle through unscathed. They are far more ruthless than us which counts but so does money and if you think some viable competitive currency exists to surpass the US by 2030 that's just fantasy, same fantasy as BTC HODLers but still fantasy. That doesn't concern me at all.

China has a serious population problem. By 2040 they will have 400 million people over age 60 which is as much as all of the US will have. They will grow old before getting anywhere near as rich as us. They are net energy importers while we are exporters. People do not want to immigrate to China and never will as long as it remains Communist/totalitarian. They are serious rivals and we should not underestimate their resolve, their pain tolerance, or their sophistication, but we have many many advantages.

I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree for now and see in 5 to 10 years whose guess is more accurate. Most of all though, I disagree with the idea that this is some kind of zero-sum game on a global scale, that if Russia or China rise economically then it must necessarily mean a bad quality of life for everyone else or that those countries can only improve their economic standing by ruthless means. And if you want to know what ruthlessness by governments actually looks like, you don't have to look beyond our own seats of government.

[AR]

So here's a nice example of how negotiating with the Russians works out:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/europe/russia-ukraine-odesa-strike-grain-exports-intl/index.html