Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[jacoavlu]

I find the German strategy puzzling also. The only way I can make sense of their energy policy (particularly their decision to decommission remaining nuclear reactors) is if some of their politicians are being paid or influenced by Russian interests. Or it could be just odd decision making.

they like many others are captured by the woke ESG narrative, comfortably ignorant about the reality of the state of the world as it relates to energy, what is required and where it comes from

[CordMcNally]

Germany gets a lot of imported energy from Russia but I'm not sure how it compares to other countries.

I'm sure there are more instances of Gerhard Schroder: Gerhard Schröder - Wikipedia

Gerhard Schröder to be stripped of privileges for not cutting ties with Russia | Germany | The Guardian

[Max Power]

...I think that we could invade Canada very easily. In a conventional war on a battlefield, I don't think that there is a country that is anywhere close to our military. The problem isn't the invasion as much as it is holding onto ground in a population that doesn't want you there with citizens willing to violently oppose you...

Well, occupation is always an issue.

The other huge issue is half the world is pouring in weapons and intel and money and supplies to prop up the weaker country.

US would actually look fairly bad and incompetent invading Canada in that case of 100 countries helping Canada (or any minimal military country).

[Max Power]

Is there some news I'm missing? Some truce or agreement or statement that China or India or Brazil won't be sanctioned? My BICK is up like 10% today.

All I see in news is that there is still Russian advances and solidifications and Ukraine keep getting fundings from USA, NATO stuff.

[Tangler]

Is there some news I'm missing? Some truce or agreement or statement that China or India or Brazil won't be sanctioned? My BICK is up like 10% today.

All I see in news is that there is still Russian advances and solidifications and Ukraine keep getting fundings from USA, NATO stuff.

Everyone will have an answer after things improve or after they deteriorate. The problem with prediction is two fold: 1. prediction of what will happen 2. prediciton of when and for how long.

In a sick and selfish sort of way, I am hoping it stays down for another 5 months or so to allow me to pour money in. I signed up to work more to help in this effort.

It could go down further or this could be the start of another upward swing.

No clue. Why? Also zero clue and skeptical of anyone who give you a confident answer.

[Tim]

"1. prediction of what will happen 2. prediciton of when and for how long."
Sorry, need to add:
3. prediction of how the market will react.
The last one gets really weird.

[Antares]

I find the German strategy puzzling also. The only way I can make sense of their energy policy (particularly their decision to decommission remaining nuclear reactors) is if some of their politicians are being paid or influenced by Russian interests. Or it could be just odd decision making.

I find this mind boggling. Not in the sense that it’s totally mystifying; their Green antinuclear sentiment is very strong and there is a reflexive fear of nuclear in many places. But it is so obviously an advantageous approach to both their energy shortage without Russian oil, and to the general problem of burning stuff to produce energy. Then again, I don’t understand the attitudes about this in many countries including the US. It’s irrational.

[Tim]

“Then again, I don’t understand the attitudes about this in many countries including the US. It’s irrational.”

Of course. People are animals! Instinct and training.
Reflexive, fear, advantageous, attitudes! It would be irrational to expect you to understand people or more importantly to expect people to make rational choices. People are weird creatures. Of course you know that,

[Zaphod]

If Russia pulls off Ukraine, the natural thing for the Chinese to do would be to take a weakened Russia, if they could neutralise the nuclear threat. Russia has everything that China needs.

Taiwan I guess would be good backup if they require something nationalist to chest thump about, and that’s good to keep in reserve.

It’s interesting that the Chinese and Russians are allies atm because they both want the US hegemony displaced. Take away the US though and they are natural enemies.

you're rationalizing where ideology prevails. they'll take taiwan, its basically a guarantee, because they see it as theirs, just as russia sees ukraine and everywhere of the old empire as theirs.

[Tim]

you're rationalizing where ideology prevails. they'll take taiwan, its basically a guarantee, because they see it as theirs, just as russia sees ukraine and everywhere of the old empire as theirs.

And the Mexico sees Ca and Tx etc as part of Mexico. Old territorial claim never die.

[Zaphod]

And the Mexico sees Ca and Tx etc as part of Mexico. Old territorial claim never die.

We take canada to finally complete the break from the UK. Mission accomplished.

[CordMcNally]

We take canada to finally complete the break from the UK. Mission accomplished.

They’d never see it coming.

[Dont_know_mind]

you're rationalizing where ideology prevails. they'll take taiwan, its basically a guarantee, because they see it as theirs, just as russia sees ukraine and everywhere of the old empire as theirs.

Good point, I thinks it’s the main thing holding commodities back, this and the China Covid policy.

I guess we all end up with a major bias to our own book (our positions). Currently, my portfolio is heavily correlated with China and commodities, so I tend to think the Chinese won’t invade Taiwan…until I reduce my exposure!

[Tangler]

What will happen with China?

Will they displace us?

China is a complicated problem. They hate us and are focused on long term dominance. We are focused on short term (getting re-elected) while they are working towards economic and military dominance. They have an innocuous sounding "belt and road initiative" that seeks to establish a presence in Africa, South America and other areas holding natural resources. They will control those resources and the people living there. They are very focused on beating us militarily while our military must focus on terrorism / policing the world. They are totally focused on a non-nuclear conflict with our forces.

War game simulations our defense department has conducted look very pessimistic for us. Hypersonic technology, AI powered drones, etc.

What will we do when they invade Taiwan?

I don't know?

[CordMcNally]

What will happen with China?

Will they displace us?

China is a complicated problem. They hate us and are focused on long term dominance. We are focused on short term (getting re-elected) while they are working towards economic and military dominance. They have an innocuous sounding "belt and road initiative" that seeks to establish a presence in Africa, South America and other areas holding natural resources. They will control those resources and the people living there. They are very focused on beating us militarily while our military must focus on terrorism / policing the world. They are totally focused on a non-nuclear conflict with our forces.

War game simulations our defense department has conducted look very pessimistic for us. Hypersonic technology, AI powered drones, etc.

What will we do when they invade Taiwan?

I don't know?

There’s not a second that goes by that I worry about the US not being the greatest military power in the world. I’d be more concerned about China more from an economic standpoint. I also wonder how long a country’s people will want to continue under a government like theirs.