Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Yowza]

This thread was started at 1050 am on Monday Feb 14 if I'm not mistaken.

S&P was about 4390 at the time.

Friday Feb 18 market open, we're at 4380, a drop of under 0.25%.

and even if it were down 5-10% in the long term that wouldn't even matter

Let's repeat what we already know: "Time in the market beats timing the market". "You can't predict the market." "Stick to your investment policy statement"

[Antares]

thank you for your perspective. It seemed you made the “right” the decision to sell. Could you have avoided the emotional coaster if you would have dollar cost average after you sell?

The 2020 Covid recovered quickly, but the prior large corrections of 2000, 2008, and 2018 were extended time lengths.

It seems you have great intuition. You don’t have to time the bottom, but even if you sold in the middle of a downturn and then DCA to the bottom and then continue DCA onwards, could you able to stomach the sell better?

i index in VTI but have slowed down my biweekly purchases since December. VTI has lost all the gains since March 2021. I plan to DCA larger amounts or even lump sum with the saved capital before the proposed rate hike in March (I think market has already priced that in) in a week.

im still young so have time to make mistakes and my portfolio is not near retirement so a lot easier mentally.

I acted on intuition twice. I elected not to act on intuition many other times. The sense that one has good intuition about the markets is probably a liability, or a behavioral finance logical error. It would be a terrible idea for me to believe I have good intuition and then make investment decisions around that. I know I am vulnerable to worry about the markets and to my own assessments. My job is to restrain myself from acting on those. As we all well know, even if you are right you have to be right twice, and almost no one - and possibly NO ONE - consistently prospers that way. Better to work on tolerating the downturns. They are the price of earning money in the long term in the markets.

[bovie]

Let's repeat what we already know: "Time in the market beats timing the market". "You can't predict the market." "Stick to your investment policy statement"

You forgot "my crystal ball is cloudy." LOL.

Really need some new slogans in the echo chamber. Yes, they're accurate and helpful, blah blah blah. But broken records hurt the ears.

Even an original phrasing of a tired line would be refreshing at this point.

[Tim]

You forgot "my crystal ball is cloudy." LOL.

Really need some new slogans in the echo chamber. Yes, they're accurate and helpful, blah blah blah. But broken records hurt the ears.

Even an original phrasing of a tired line would be refreshing at this point.

My mask is in the way?

[GIMD]

You forgot "my crystal ball is cloudy." LOL.

Really need some new slogans in the echo chamber. Yes, they're accurate and helpful, blah blah blah. But broken records hurt the ears.

Even an original phrasing of a tired line would be refreshing at this point.

"Don't fight the feds"

[burritos]

Nord stream 2. Question. Is Germany more dependent on Russian natural gas than we are on Made in China? Ultimately, we can't blow up too many things cause we stuff and Germans need heat. But you can blow up enough stuff to entertain the masses I suppose.

[Tim]

Nord stream 2. Question. Is Germany more dependent on Russian natural gas than we are on Made in China? Ultimately, we can't blow up too many things cause we stuff and Germans need heat. But you can blow up enough stuff to entertain the masses I suppose.

I got the covid home test kits from government last week. All four of them.
Made in China by I Health. A new brand not available in stores. I am sure there was a contract that was fully compliant with minimum wage, global warming and and equity, no corners were cut. Lowest bid I bet.

[nephron]

The news organizations are reporting the "attack" order has been sent. I think that this is the first time they have been so open with real time intelligence. You do have to wonder if members of congress had this insider information before it was publicized, if they could "time" the market (ie hit the "sell" button when the order to attack was given before anyone else knew about it). I think that was part of the controversy surrounding covid in the early part of 2020. I would guess that members of congress are no better at timing the market then the rest of us. They may know when to "exit" the market before a sell off, but I doubt that any amount of insider information would tell them enough to tell them when to re-enter the market. Before they pass these laws barring insider trading by congressmen, I think that someone should see if any one of them have actually been able to beat the market.

[CordMcNally]

The news organizations are reporting the "attack" order has been sent. I think that this is the first time they have been so open with real time intelligence. You do have to wonder if members of congress had this insider information before it was publicized, if they could "time" the market (ie hit the "sell" button when the order to attack was given before anyone else knew about it). I think that was part of the controversy surrounding covid in the early part of 2020. I would guess that members of congress are no better at timing the market then the rest of us. They may know when to "exit" the market before a sell off, but I doubt that any amount of insider information would tell them enough to tell them when to re-enter the market. Before they pass these laws barring insider trading by congressmen, I think that someone should see if any one of them have actually been able to beat the market.

While I trust our government more than China and Russia, I don't blindly trust them. There is certainly a reason they are letting this information get out. I can see reasons why it would be true and they would report it and I can see reasons why it isn't true but they are letting it get reported, too.

[CM]

I currently believe the market will fall over the next weeks or months or two years - I have no idea which. Not because of war, although that might be bad for markets in the short run if it happens. But more because of the inflation/Federal funds rate discrepancy, and the delay in raising rates earlier.

This. The biggest threat to the market is the rate-rising cycle. The downturn was triggered by the Fed announcing its intention to finally begin.

The high recent (i.e., for most of this bull market) valuations are primarily due to the lowest interest rates in history and other Fed maneuvers (to expand its balance sheet).

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

While I trust our government more than China and Russia, I don't blindly trust them. There is certainly a reason they are letting this information get out. I can see reasons why it would be true and they would report it and I can see reasons why it isn't true but they are letting it get reported, too.

They are trying to clip Russian misinformation campaigns and false flag attack justifications off at the knees. Russian military strategy employs this a lot. “Rebel separatists” in Eastern Ukraine have turned out to be Russian special forces troops, dressed up as rebel separatists, in the past.

I’m assuming that most people here aren’t familiar with the “terrorist” attacks on Russian apartment buildings that killed 300, and were used to get the strong leader like Putin elected. Any idea who the “terrorists” turned out to be when the were foiled setting up yet another bomb by local police.

I’ll give you a hint. The detonation was prevented in that building and those that where caught, turned out to be Russian government operatives doing a “training exercise”. Ha, ha, ha…. Just a misunderstanding, you see.

As a former KGB operative, Putin seems to enjoy practicing high level deceptions, and is quick to eliminate political opponents, activists, journalists, etc…. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Hank]

Russia is a gas station in the frozen tundra that happens to have nukes. For efficient, honest government, it's quite competitive with Zimbabwe.

The Russian people have made innumerable contributions to math, physics, music, art, ballet, chess, engineering, space exploration, etc. They deserve far better than their current leadership and the kleptocrats who are plundering their country. However, vodka, depression, and suicide led to a male life expectancy of 50-some years for a couple decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Conquering former Soviet states by force isn't the way to a better future for the Russian people or for those whom Putin would annex.

[Tim]

The best defense is a good offense. So far, things are going according to plan. Putin is overconfident. I expect messaging. I kind of doubt Putin feels vulnerable.

[chocolatebear11]

They are trying to clip Russian misinformation campaigns and false flag attack justifications off at the knees. Russian military strategy employs this a lot. “Rebel separatists” in Eastern Ukraine have turned out to be Russian special forces troops, dressed up as rebel separatists, in the past.

I’m assuming that most people here aren’t familiar with the “terrorist” attacks on Russian apartment buildings that killed 300, and were used to get the strong leader like Putin elected. Any idea who the “terrorists” turned out to be when the were foiled setting up yet another bomb by local police.

I’ll give you a hint. The detonation was prevented in that building and those that where caught, turned out to be Russian government operatives doing a “training exercise”. Ha, ha, ha…. Just a misunderstanding, you see.

As a former KGB operative, Putin seems to enjoy practicing high level deceptions, and is quick to eliminate political opponents, activists, journalists, etc…. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

You were a KGB operative? You must have some interesting stories!

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

You were a KGB operative? You must have some interesting stories!

A man is not Ivan Hagharchev.