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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
    The problem becomes, 40 years out, when Russia controls all of Europe, and China controls all of the Pacific, the US becomes pretty small and isolated. But like the environment, and the deficit, that’s the next generation’s problem…. Good luck kids.
    How is Russia going to control all of Europe when they can't even control Ukraine? Russia isn't the Russia everyone thought they were.

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    • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

      How is Russia going to control all of Europe when they can't even control Ukraine? Russia isn't the Russia everyone thought they were.
      Is he really trying to control Europe or perhaps this is the most extreme form of a flex fail?

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      • Russia has an economy smaller the Italy or South Korea. Based upon it's performance in Ukraine, I don't think that it's conventional military would be able to defeat either in a war either. The problem is that when a country has an autocrat that doesn't care about it's own people (eg N Korea), they can do a lot of damage and cause a lot of suffering in the world. This war seems like it is headed towards a prolonged siege without any "winners" for a while. Given global reliance of gas and oil, I hope that they can shift Russian supplies to other countries quickly. Given the global market for gas and oil, I still think that it doesn't make a lot of sense to "sanction" them. If you plan on purchasing the same amount of gas or oil you are sanctioning from another country, you are just increasing prices while shifting distribution around (ie Russian oil will be sold to China which will then not need to purchase the oil from Middle East which will be redirected to Europe). Higher gas and oil prices benefits Russia.

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        • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
          This isn’t like a nonsense, unilateral US operation in some 3rd world country.

          It’s actually more comparable to when Hitler invaded the Sudetenland pre-WW2, then went for all of Czechoslovakia after that. Chillingly comparable. The world’s response is determining global history.

          Putin was planning empire-building far beyond Ukraine. It was supposed to be a few day blitzkrieg takeover, then on to the rest. Luckily it turned into a disaster for Russia, so far.
          ever hear of Godwin's Law ?

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          • Originally posted by fatlittlepig View Post

            ever hear of Godwin's Law ?
            Yes, it’s part mathematical probably, and part social commentary on loose associations.

            I don’t see how it applies here however, as much as it applies to commentary on contemporary presidential candidates and group demonstrations.

            You have Putin, who studied the techniques of Stalin, who was initially a big fan of Hitler’s rise (until one unexpected night, their relationship suddenly soured over Operation Barbarossa).

            WW2 era Germany and present day Russia are two countries that decided to annex part of their neighbor, got little resistance, so decided take take the rest in pursuit of a genetic and mystical destiny for rebuilding an ancient empire. (Read some autobiographies of Putin and some of what he has written himself). It didn’t work out so well in the 1940s for everyone.

            But I must admit, that I was raised on the first hand survival recountings of parents and grandparents who survived and escaped Nazi and Soviet occupation, so I view these current events differently than some.




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            • Putin is like Hitler because they both attacked neighboring countries? hmm.. not quite.
              per wikipedia: There are many corollaries to Godwin's law, some considered more canonical (by being adopted by Godwin himself)[3] than others.[1] For example, there is a tradition in many newsgroups and other Internet discussion forums that, when a Hitler comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever made the comparison loses whatever debate is in progress.[10] This principle is itself frequently referred to as Godwin's law.[11]

              anyways, I do agree, of course, what Putin is doing is horrible. i agree with president biden that we shouldn't go to world war 3 over it. i do question what we should do about it, that's it.

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              • Originally posted by Sampter View Post
                I agree with you....if Ukraine had been a push-over with no response from US and Europe Putin would be marching on to other countries. NATO was formed in part to be strength in numbers against the Soviet Union.
                Yeah, I just don't know about this.

                Again, everyone's played RISK (I sure hope). You have to occupy everything you conquer. You create more and more borders to supply and defend. The peril of every 'empire' in the recorded history of the world is that they run out of troops and resources to occupy. Their campaign stalls out, they have some uprisings, they lose some colonies to independence, they fracture from within.

                Again, USA can sit "on an island." That is why the constitutionalists chose the land they did... far from Euro wars, unlikely to be invaded, defensible if need be.

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                • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post

                  Yes, it’s part mathematical probably, and part social commentary on loose associations.

                  I don’t see how it applies here however, as much as it applies to commentary on contemporary presidential candidates and group demonstrations.

                  You have Putin, who studied the techniques of Stalin, who was initially a big fan of Hitler’s rise (until one unexpected night, their relationship suddenly soured over Operation Barbarossa).

                  WW2 era Germany and present day Russia are two countries that decided to annex part of their neighbor, got little resistance, so decided take take the rest in pursuit of a genetic and mystical destiny for rebuilding an ancient empire. (Read some autobiographies of Putin and some of what he has written himself). It didn’t work out so well in the 1940s for everyone.

                  But I must admit, that I was raised on the first hand survival recountings of parents and grandparents who survived and escaped Nazi and Soviet occupation, so I view these current events differently than some.
                  I'm reading Peter Zeihan's book 'Disunited nations' atm. It's an interesting take on the geopolitics.
                  I think you and a few others actually actually took notice of what Putin was saying and writing in the past, but for others who didn't, the invasion was a surprise.

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                  • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                    Yeah, I just don't know about this.

                    Again, everyone's played RISK (I sure hope). You have to occupy everything you conquer. You create more and more borders to supply and defend. The peril of every 'empire' in the recorded history of the world is that they run out of troops and resources to occupy. Their campaign stalls out, they have some uprisings, they lose some colonies to independence, they fracture from within.

                    Again, USA can sit "on an island." That is why the constitutionalists chose the land they did... far from Euro wars, unlikely to be invaded, defensible if need be.
                    Putin had delusions about how he would have easily taken and held Ukraine, it is clear he planned and maybe still fantasizes of taking Moldova, Georgia, beyond that who knows but certainly the Baltics were in play. I'm not sure where the correct line is but there is no question in my mind that the west has made the correct strategic calculation that they could not allow Russia to waltz into Ukraine like Hitler did Czechoslovakia. We have accomplished that. Beyond that, not sure of the best off ramp.
                    Last edited by FIREshrink; 05-17-2022, 08:15 PM.

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                    • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
                      We have accomplished that. Being that, not sure of the best off ramp.
                      Yeah that off ramp is going to be hard to find when: We have a prominent politician who vows U.S. support until "victory is won". And you have a politician who requested a special inspector general to ensure oversight of the $40B (this to me seems like it should be a no brainer), only to be chastised by his fellow senators.

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                      • Originally posted by fatlittlepig View Post

                        Yeah that off ramp is going to be hard to find when: We have a prominent politician who vows U.S. support until "victory is won". And you have a politician who requested a special inspector general to ensure oversight of the $40B (this to me seems like it should be a no brainer), only to be chastised by his fellow senators.
                        You're hardly the first to question the wisdom of the pro regime change stance advocated by some in the administration, they've taken flak from Democrats as well. But that isn't why there's not an off ramp. Putin was told and shown repeatedly in the lead up to the war that the west knew his plans, would defend Ukraine, and would unveil/counter his efforts at disinformation. At no point did he take the opportunity to stand down, and despite escalating losses on the battlefield, economic and social isolation, etc, he hasn't shown any interest in backing down. So regardless of what Austin or anyone else said or did, at some point Putin has to signal some openness to leave or the west simply has no choice but to defend against the expansion of totalitarianism in the heart of Europe. For many existential reasons it is obvious that cannot stand.

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                        • Things tend not to work out well when you provide assurances of victory without first defining what victory entails. Mission creep and quagmire are things which come to mind.

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                          • Agree, and also agree that if we intended to give Ukraine $40B we should have voted publicly to give them $40B last January, to further dissuade Russian invasion. What's done is done. Even a great number of Russia and Ukraine experts were surprised Putin went in the way he did, and most experts are also surprised by the poor performance of his military. So there were surprised all around and everyone has to adapt on the fly. Welcome to war.

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                            • Regime change is tricky business, because in a vacuum of power, it’s hard to predict what takes over next. I’m actually shocked at how well the Ukrainians have done, and how weak the conventional Russian army has been. Still, winter will come again and it’s going to be a hard one with no power, no food, no healthcare or infrastructure when the snow starts falling again. Russia will also learn from its military failures. The world has responded pretty well to this so far. Everything but the invasion is surprising.

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                              • “Putin was told and shown repeatedly in the lead up to the war that the west knew his plans, would defend Ukraine,”

                                “Except for a small incursion. “
                                From my understanding, support for Ukraine has been long standing. Money has been use as a tool but more importantly there was significant military training, undercover of course. Political and military intelligence appears to be the problem. Our (yes all of the us) seems to view the conflict as we want things to be, rather than how it actually is. The messaging about “corruption” really seems hollow now.
                                Just “Another Fine Mess”.
                                https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0020643/
                                Intelligence and government intelligence agencies seem to be mutually exclusive.

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