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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • #46
    Even though MP is getting roasted I give props to anyone who is posting their active trading moves in real time. Give me these threads every day over the ones we see all the time about how people made $5M the last 2 years with Tesla options.

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    • #47
      Maybe I am mis-reading these news articles about this situation, but it seems to me that if there is a war, it will mainly just entail Russian tanks rolling into the capital and declaring victory (ie it will be a short one). The disruption to the markets and economy will probably come from all of the sanctions the US and Europe impose on Russia. Russia's mostly a petro-state so I imagine we'd just be looking at a spike in energy prices and the downstream effects of that. A lot of the disruption could have probably been avoided if Europe wasn't so anti-nuclear power.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by nephron View Post
        Maybe I am mis-reading these news articles about this situation, but it seems to me that if there is a war, it will mainly just entail Russian tanks rolling into the capital and declaring victory (ie it will be a short one). The disruption to the markets and economy will probably come from all of the sanctions the US and Europe impose on Russia. Russia's mostly a petro-state so I imagine we'd just be looking at a spike in energy prices and the downstream effects of that. A lot of the disruption could have probably been avoided if Europe wasn't so anti-nuclear power.
        A "short one"? Me thinks you enjoy the insulation of the USA and do not understand the history of this part of the world, sir. This is not some quick conflict... or a population who will lay down. Their past conflicts (and Slavic country ones in general) have been quite messy and prolonged. These are "war countries" for a reason:
        https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/20...vasion/622841/

        And for anyone who says I am trying to profit off of a tragedy, realize that only a fool would not try to gain from events that are being telegraphed and will happen despite anything I personally do or do not do. I think it is tragic, but I am fine to stay out of others' affairs and take what the market will give here (or any COVID, economy collapse, etc). It is just plain dumb not to buy good yet beaten stocks, foreclosure quality homes, gold price dips, etc.

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        • #49
          Umm, that article only seems to argue for my point. I don't see grandma with a knife or the pta practicing with wooden guns putting up much in the way of resistance. They have a few border guards on their northern border facing thousands of troops and armored divisions. That's even if this were a soldier/tank war. The Russians will have air and sea superiority and do not seem to be as limited by the rules of war (ie Syria) as we are with our bombs. The news reports that I have seen have just been about citizens in those parts mostly shrugging off the possibility of invasion. I will admit that I know little about Ukrainian history or about that part of the world though, so I don't know. I just see it being more like a desert storm scenario rather then Afghanistan for Russia.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Max Power View Post
            A "short one"? Me thinks you enjoy the insulation of the USA and do not understand the history of this part of the world, sir. This is not some quick conflict... or a population who will lay down. Their past conflicts (and Slavic country ones in general) have been quite messy and prolonged. These are "war countries" for a reason:
            https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/20...vasion/622841/

            And for anyone who says I am trying to profit off of a tragedy, realize that only a fool would not try to gain from events that are being telegraphed and will happen despite anything I personally do or do not do. I think it is tragic, but I am fine to stay out of others' affairs and take what the market will give here (or any COVID, economy collapse, etc). It is just plain dumb not to buy good yet beaten stocks, foreclosure quality homes, gold price dips, etc.
            What if you're wrong? Markets do not go down 3-6%? Is there any point at which you would get back in , take your losses, move on?

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
              The market reacts to surprises, mostly. If everyone is expecting something to happen, it’s already priced in at that point, long before it happens. You see this with earnings and events all the time. Nothing happens on an earnings beat that everyone expected. It’s where the saying…. “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” comes from.

              Now if Crimea is the Sudetenland, and Ukraine is Czechoslovakia, and what follows is what followed that….. there’s a surprise indeed. Some observe that these events are eerily similar, as are the arguments behind those moves.

              Difference is 1939 Germany was a weak nation with nothing to lose by disrupting the status quo in Europe

              Russia a established nuclear power has nothing to gain and potentially a LOT to lose esp it’s bargaining power wrt China by inviting a full scale war in Europe

              our economies are far more intertwined than they were in 1939

              Not every thuggish foreign dictator is Hitler and not every enemy is nazi Germany

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                A "short one"? Me thinks you enjoy the insulation of the USA and do not understand the history of this part of the world, sir. This is not some quick conflict... or a population who will lay down. Their past conflicts (and Slavic country ones in general) have been quite messy and prolonged. These are "war countries" for a reason:
                https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/20...vasion/622841/

                And for anyone who says I am trying to profit off of a tragedy, realize that only a fool would not try to gain from events that are being telegraphed and will happen despite anything I personally do or do not do. I think it is tragic, but I am fine to stay out of others' affairs and take what the market will give here (or any COVID, economy collapse, etc). It is just plain dumb not to buy good yet beaten stocks, foreclosure quality homes, gold price dips, etc.
                Slavic conflicts are not all like Balkan conflicts

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by nastle View Post

                  Difference is 1939 Germany was a weak nation with nothing to lose by disrupting the status quo in Europe

                  Russia a established nuclear power has nothing to gain and potentially a LOT to lose esp it’s bargaining power wrt China by inviting a full scale war in Europe

                  our economies are far more intertwined than they were in 1939

                  Not every thuggish foreign dictator is Hitler and not every enemy is nazi Germany
                  Most would agree with you. That’s why it would be a surprise.

                  The autobiography of Putin is interesting, and so are the characteristics of the various Slavic peoples and nations. After reading a few books on these, I started to understand that the paranoia, fatalism and tolerance for work and suffering that seems to run through my family lines is not so random after all.

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                  • #54
                    I always enjoy posts including alternate views it really forces people to justify their own actions and view points. Especially ones where they go against a forums dogma.

                    You have bigger cahonas than me and I hope it works out. Thank you for posting in real time. Please keep info coming I always learn well from the experience of others for good and bad.

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post

                      Most would agree with you. That’s why it would be a surprise.

                      The autobiography of Putin is interesting, and so are the characteristics of the various Slavic peoples and nations. After reading a few books on these, I started to understand that the paranoia, fatalism and tolerance for work and suffering that seems to run through my family lines is not so random after all.
                      Slavs in many ways are the most oppressed people in history
                      we in the western world have demonized them as ruffians far too long
                      My dad who grew up in a third world country used to find echoes of human sufferings and hardships in Russian novels which were absent in even the darkest works of Dickens and EAP
                      Last edited by nastle; 02-18-2022, 09:17 AM.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Antares View Post
                        I did this on Feb 6, 2020, going against all my principles of investing. Sold a large percentage of my stocks. I did it because at that time I really believed I knew something that the market didn’t yet know. Truth be told, I was also afraid of the deluge coming. This proved to be correct. For a short time after the markets fell, I was pleased and relieved. But the inevitable occurred. I had no idea when to get back in. I watched as prices began to rise again. By the time I convinced myself to get back in, I had reduced what was a huge paper loss avoidance to a modest gain. I have never gone back to calculate it, because it’s not a happy memory. 10% gain max, maybe single digits. With enormous stress being out of the market as it rose. I doubt I will ever again “know something” that the market hasn’t yet priced in. But even if I do, I don’t trust that I will ultimate benefit from it. In hindsight, while I made some money, I prefer not to try to figure out the unfigurable.

                        Oh, just remembered - funny how we forget these experiments - I also did it the day before the Brexit vote - that was dumb, what did I think I knew that others didn’t? I made something like 5%. Dumb luck. Apparently lesson not learned.

                        I currently believe the market will fall over the next weeks or months or two years - I have no idea which. Not because of war, although that might be bad for markets in the short run if it happens. But more because of the inflation/Federal funds rate discrepancy, and the delay in raising rates earlier. I could be wrong and I’m doing nothing. There are standing orders to tie me to the mast if I ever again threaten to sell stocks because I think I can predict the future - Here I am at 63, and I still have to watch myself carefully to make sure I stick to what I’ve learned.
                        thank you for your perspective. It seemed you made the “right” the decision to sell. Could you have avoided the emotional coaster if you would have dollar cost average after you sell?

                        The 2020 Covid recovered quickly, but the prior large corrections of 2000, 2008, and 2018 were extended time lengths.

                        It seems you have great intuition. You don’t have to time the bottom, but even if you sold in the middle of a downturn and then DCA to the bottom and then continue DCA onwards, could you able to stomach the sell better?

                        i index in VTI but have slowed down my biweekly purchases since December. VTI has lost all the gains since March 2021. I plan to DCA larger amounts or even lump sum with the saved capital before the proposed rate hike in March (I think market has already priced that in) in a week.

                        im still young so have time to make mistakes and my portfolio is not near retirement so a lot easier mentally.

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                        • #57
                          Error

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by nastle View Post

                            Slavs in many ways are the most oppressed people in history
                            we in the western world have demonized them as far too long
                            My dad who grew up in a third world country used to find echoes of human sufferings and hardships in Russian novels which were absent in even the darkest works of Dickens and AEP
                            My father died this past November. His older sister is now the last living member of our family who lived through the the Nazi occupation and subsequent Russian occupation. She was older and remembers even more than he did. He would tell stories about running up to the cattle cars, and sticking his fingers through the slats and touching the fingers of the people being carted off to the concentration camps, before being chased away by Nazi soldiers, as a young boy.

                            He would tell us about his interactions with the soldiers, what the family did to survive, what the people in the towns acted like during occupation and liberation, and occupation again. The correct way to walk around buildings during shelling. How to avoid being lined up. How to blend into the background.

                            About our family who made it through, and about those who did not, and about how each army dealt with problems…. Gather up some random people from their homes, line them up in the street, and mow them down.

                            The characteristics and skills of our surviving family members, that served them so well during wartime, could often be a moderate hinderance during their normal peacetime lives.

                            May they never be needed again.

                            But we are likely doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, as we outgrow them and forget them.


                            This scene from “Bridge of Spies”, always makes me think of some of those stories…..










                            Last edited by Jaqen Haghar MD; 02-18-2022, 03:46 PM.

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                            • #59
                              This thread was started at 1050 am on Monday Feb 14 if I'm not mistaken.
                              ​​​​​​
                              S&P was about 4390 at the time.

                              Friday Feb 18 market open, we're at 4380, a drop of under 0.25%.

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by chocolatebear11 View Post
                                im still young so have time to make mistakes and my portfolio is not near retirement so a lot easier mentally.
                                I appreciate your rationalization.
                                The last one, is a little offbeat. Your age vs Antares’ don’t actually matter. Two portfolio’s with a 30 year future have the same goals.
                                Appropriate choices, risk vs returns.
                                Managing financial capital should be emotionally agnostic.
                                Managing personal capital should be emotionally agnostic.
                                The “mistake” was AA, the result was over/under AA in the portfolio. Behavioral finance leads to mistakes, no matter the age, unintended consequences. The market over corrects, and over recovers. Just because you have personal capital does not mean you should spend it paying for mistakes.
                                The only way this makes sense is if you set aside a “sandbox” for fun . You can afford it as you say.
                                From my take, the result doesn’t matter. It is not an investment plan for core portfolio. That why rebalancing is important in the process. Gets you back to appropriate risk profile, regardless of performance. That is a skill one can master.


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