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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    I am out on BABA. Up 34 or 35% *in one day* right now.... fine for me (ok if I miss 36% or whatever it may end at, I want to miss any substantial correction tomorrow open). That is the biggest boost I have ever had in one day... I think maybe TeamHEalth was similar the day they got bought out by Blackstone. I was not holding half as many shares and the shares were worth less than half with that one, so I will take it here with Ali. Big win.

    VWO is up 7% also... I will jump out of that also with some profits. I expect a bit of a correction later this week for BABA and the index, but it really doesn't matter... I will lock in a gain. You guys can rip all you want, but it's not as if I don't have the US indexes and everything that you hold also.

    Today was, no joke, basically an average year's worth of gains on the BABA and NVO. Over a thousand of shares VWO and thousands of BABA. That is at least one year less of getting up at 5am for rounds or reviewing charts in depositions or dealing with admins. That's impactful. I sure didn't buy the Chinese stuff all at yesterday's price, but it ends with over 10% realized now (plus all of the covered call fees along the way), bought and sold over weeks and months... and it pays off all in one day. Can't keep a good dog down. Work$$$ for me.
    I guess it takes true genius to buy at $220 (which was apparently a very good price at the time), watch it tumble to $76 and yet still net a years worth of income when it goes back up to $105.

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    • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
      Alibaba up 25% today... it has been a fun ride with S&P, commod, Chinese stocks, gold, etc.

      I still don't get the wait-it-out and take your lumps approach. Never have. Even if the DOW is up 1000, it is still down for the month... I'm up a very significant amount (dozens of shares of GOOG, hundreds of BX, a hundred more SPY more than I had a month ago). The BABA would have been a crusher, but it was unreazlized... so that's back also.

      The volatility is always a way to get more shares. Will you bat 1.000? Of course not, but you don't need to by any means.
      BABA is still down over 50% from when you were recommending it last year. You said the Russia/Ukraine situation was going to be the most predictable drop since COVID and the S&P is down 1%, excluding any taxes. I’m glad you feel like the Hokey Pokey approach is going well for you but it’s far from the best approach for the majority.

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      • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
        I am out on BABA. Up 34 or 35% *in one day* right now.... fine for me (ok if I miss 36% or whatever it may end at, I want to miss any substantial correction tomorrow open). That is the biggest boost I have ever had in one day... I think maybe TeamHEalth was similar the day they got bought out by Blackstone. I was not holding half as many shares and the shares were worth less than half with that one, so I will take it here with Ali. Big win.

        VWO is up 7% also... I will jump out of that also with some profits. I expect a bit of a correction later this week for BABA and the index, but it really doesn't matter... I will lock in a gain. You guys can rip all you want, but it's not as if I don't have the US indexes and everything that you hold also.

        Today was, no joke, basically an average year's worth of gains on the BABA and NVO. Over a thousand of shares VWO and thousands of BABA. That is at least one year less of getting up at 5am for rounds or reviewing charts in depositions or dealing with admins. That's impactful. I sure didn't buy the Chinese stuff all at yesterday's price, but it ends with over 10% realized now (plus all of the covered call fees along the way), bought and sold over weeks and months... and it pays off all in one day. Can't keep a good dog down. Work$$$ for me.
        Wait what? You did all this work over the past few weeks/months, and your net gain was 10% profit? Or am I mis-reading?

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        • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
          Wait what? You did all this work over the past few weeks/months, and your net gain was 10% profit? Or am I mis-reading?
          Yes, exactly... up 10% in the past month overall.

          Sold off most of my SPY, GOOG, NVO, FWRD, BX, BABA, VWO, etc etc around Valentine's or whenever I started the thread to free up cash...

          Shorted the market most days with 2x and 3x inverses in the early weeks of Ukraine crash. Bad idea on a few days but mostly a great idea.

          Nibble back at SPY, GOOG, NVO, VWO, etc as the market dropped and dropped. Came out with roughly 8-12% more shares on all of those (a bit more on NVO, good amount more on GOOG and SPY, and much more on VWO).

          Started buying BABA blocks around 100/share as I posted a week or so ago... kept buying 90, 85, etc (as posted). That was the big gainer... sold nearly all at 105 and locked it in today. This turned out to be the genius play (barely... I would have only been down 20% on BABA and overall up less than 5% overall if China comm pressures kept up).

          I am not saying I didn't lose some money on trading shares/options with BABA last year, etc... I am just saying my total portfolio is up +10% in the last month... S&P is down 2% or 3% in same, and that's index I always bench against since nearly all of my stocks are within it. In reality, I gained over 15% from trading the volatility (since a lot of SPY and GOOG and REITs, physical gold, and etc that is ~35% of my portfolio was never sold off and just sat through the market cycle). I am back to 75% stocks/index, 5% gold, 20% cash now.

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          • I don't know how Zelensky was as a president pre-war, but he just seems like an awesome leader in this war. Watching him address leaders around the world makes me jealous. Our most recent leaders would struggle passing a mini mental status exam, much less lead soldiers in a battlefield. I don't know why it's so hard to find regular people to run for office.

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            • Hmm. I bought an allocation of US, Intl, an EM as a base in 2008. Never traded per se. 8%+ , you made me look. Only 16% more and it’ll be back to its high. I have certainly been disappointed all these years. Still up, after all these years. I have a thing: FOMO on everything I hold.
              One month does not make a year, decade or investment.
              The mistake I see is judging by outcomes rather than the results of your process. Did your process have a basis in the one day pop? Talk about a winning process is how to refine trading strategies.

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              • Originally posted by nephron View Post
                I don't know how Zelensky was as a president pre-war, but he just seems like an awesome leader in this war. Watching him address leaders around the world makes me jealous. Our most recent leaders would struggle passing a mini mental status exam, much less lead soldiers in a battlefield. I don't know why it's so hard to find regular people to run for office.
                So who is the president in 2022?

                Zelensky.

                Zelensky?!? The actor?!

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                • Originally posted by nephron View Post
                  I don't know how Zelensky was as a president pre-war, but he just seems like an awesome leader in this war. Watching him address leaders around the world makes me jealous. Our most recent leaders would struggle passing a mini mental status exam, much less lead soldiers in a battlefield. I don't know why it's so hard to find regular people to run for office.
                  He is charismatic and likable.

                  He will also be dead by the end of the year if he won't get out of the country.

                  I would bet on him being dead by the end of 2022 (along with most other high rank Ukraine govt who don't evac). I don't think Zelensky has any road to fleeing when he has already stated he won't, implored (mandated?) all Ukrainians to fight even if civilians and out-gunned, and pressured the rest of the world to help them fight. Life is full of choices.

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                  • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                    These oligarchs are literally the richest people on Earth - much more so than any of the publicly listed CEOs like Musk, Bezos, et al. While it would definitely not be fun for them seeing some of their 8-figure properties frozen/seized in the US and UK, rest assured they have much more where that came from.

                    It's entirely plausible that Putin has been and currently still is a trillionaire - the amount of wealth that was created/stolen when the Soviet Republic crumbled and previously nationalized conglomerates were gobbled up by Putin & his functionaries for fractions of basis points on the ruble (no exaggeration - this is a point of fact) is staggering and incomprehensible. The only analogy that would be remotely similar would be someone who bought BTC at 10 cents in 2009.

                    I highly suggest 'Red Notice' by Bill Browder which is a great account of this transition.
                    The Chandler brothers (*) fought this in the 90’s and gave up.

                    One day Russia will be a frontier market again and hopefully it will be different. It could be an amazing investment one day.

                    (*) my favourite investors of all time:
                    https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-of-sovereign

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                    • Originally posted by nephron View Post
                      I don't know why it's so hard to find regular people to run for office.
                      LOL. I can think of a couple reasons…

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                      • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

                        The Chandler brothers (*) fought this in the 90’s and gave up.

                        One day Russia will be a frontier market again and hopefully it will be different. It could be an amazing investment one day.

                        (*) my favourite investors of all time:
                        https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...s-of-sovereign
                        I don't know if I would ever invest in publicly traded equities from frontier markets.

                        It seems like the only real way to pursue alpha in this space would entail boots on the ground locally and be able to survey the scene, network with biz folks, and perhaps even have to resort to dubiously ethical behavior (under the table bribes) to actually get a fair return. I have no interest in any of those things, so it would be a pass for me.

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                        • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                          I don't know if I would ever invest in publicly traded equities from frontier markets.

                          It seems like the only real way to pursue alpha in this space would entail boots on the ground locally and be able to survey the scene, network with biz folks, and perhaps even have to resort to dubiously ethical behavior (under the table bribes) to actually get a fair return. I have no interest in any of those things, so it would be a pass for me.
                          Why not just buy the whole market?

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                          • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

                            Why not just buy the whole market?
                            You mean a frontier market ETF? Because I believe it is not as efficient as tracking the underlying companies - due to poor transparency, bureaucracy, corruption. Hence much more difficult to pursue alpha.

                            We're so used to the consistently vetted and regulated public equity market in the US, it's sometimes easy to forget developing/3rd world countries are not always analogous.

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                            • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                              You mean a frontier market ETF? Because I believe it is not as efficient as tracking the underlying companies - due to poor transparency, bureaucracy, corruption. Hence much more difficult to pursue alpha.

                              We're so used to the consistently vetted and regulated public equity market in the US, it's sometimes easy to forget developing/3rd world countries are not always analogous.
                              Those disadvantages are priced in., Ie p/e might be 3 or 5 instead of 25 in the US. What do you know the market pricing mechanism doesn't?

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                              • Broadway Joe B is on his way to Europe right now... US markets stumbled after a rally back to pre-war over the last week.

                                And the Moscow Stock Exchange is set to open tomorrow Thurs after a month of shutdown... anyone think that will last a whole day?

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