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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Originally posted by PWMDMD View Post

    Obviously, this post didn't age well but it is a reminder to me about why no one can predict the actions of even one other human being not to mention millions or billions = why it's impossible to time/predict the market. Not trying to pick on you - I didn't think it would happen either.
    Nope, didn’t age well at all! Oh well, if I could go back in time I’d make the same prediction, the invasion didn’t and still doesn’t make alot of sense. Don’t want to be results oriented
    Last edited by HikingDO; 03-15-2022, 08:49 AM.

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    • Originally posted by PWMDMD View Post

      Obviously, this post didn't age well but it is a reminder to me about why no one can predict the actions of even one other human being not to mention millions or billions = why it's impossible to time/predict the market. Not trying to pick on you - I didn't think it would happen either.
      Pootie Poot is pushing the eastern border of NATO with his bombardments. One miscalculation by a field-grade Soviet/Russian officer and we have the makings of a NATO-Soviet/Russia (possibly China, too) conflagration. I think odds of theatre expansion are not insignificant as of now, and increasing.
      Last edited by F0017S0; 03-15-2022, 01:09 PM.

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      • Originally posted by HikingDO View Post
        Nope, didn’t age well at all! Oh well, if I could go back in time I’d make the same prediction, the invasion didn’t and still doesn’t make alot of sense. Don’t want to be results oriented
        Don't worry, I have lost almost as much on shorting up days and grabbing BABA as I have gained shorting down days, buying commod and gold ETFs, and buying cheaper stocks/index that I sold back in early Feb.

        I am really on nearly the same +/- level as the buy-and-holders so far. I have more shares of GOOG and BX and a few others with the same money, but I am down (unrealized) on Ali. So, even someone who accurately saw the invasion a couple weeks ahead couldn't capitalize much. If I didn't like BABA and NVO, I would be well ahead, though. The jury remains out on those I suppose.

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        • Originally posted by PWMDMD View Post

          Obviously, this post didn't age well but it is a reminder to me about why no one can predict the actions of even one other human being not to mention millions or billions = why it's impossible to time/predict the market. Not trying to pick on you - I didn't think it would happen either.
          Its still really early. We very easily could have seen our speculative blow off top and the start of a bear market. Or not. But it would be wild to try to take much away from a couple weeks, long way to go with long term reverberations in the world and markets.

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          • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
            This part of the original post has turned out to be pretty accurate, so far.

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            • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
              Don't worry, I have lost almost as much on shorting up days and grabbing BABA as I have gained shorting down days, buying commod and gold ETFs, and buying cheaper stocks/index that I sold back in early Feb.

              I am really on nearly the same +/- level as the buy-and-holders so far. I have more shares of GOOG and BX and a few others with the same money, but I am down (unrealized) on Ali. So, even someone who accurately saw the invasion a couple weeks ahead couldn't capitalize much. If I didn't like BABA and NVO, I would be well ahead, though. The jury remains out on those I suppose.
              Up 1000 points in just over a day of trading.

              The invasion was much worse than anyone predicted including Ukrainians, Russian soldiers, and probably most Russian military leaders save a the highest ranking inner circle. No one knows nothing.

              But the bet would have been short term bet on commodities. That's already substantially reversed itself.

              Buy, hold, wait forty years is very low stress and takes almost no time.

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              • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
                ...But the bet would have been short term bet on commodities. That's already substantially reversed itself...
                Alibaba up 25% today... it has been a fun ride with S&P, commod, Chinese stocks, gold, etc.

                I still don't get the wait-it-out and take your lumps approach. Never have. Even if the DOW is up 1000, it is still down for the month... I'm up a very significant amount (dozens of shares of GOOG, hundreds of BX, a hundred more SPY more than I had a month ago). The BABA would have been a crusher, but it was unreazlized... so that's back also.

                The volatility is always a way to get more shares. Will you bat 1.000? Of course not, but you don't need to by any means.

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                • Money on real estate is in the front end, good price on the purchase.
                  At this time in your life, flipping stocks is as much fun as “flipping houses”? I do commend you being transparent on your moves. At some point, you will have better uses for your time.
                  Hope it works out.

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                  • https://stocks.apple.com/AyY4NzBbURvK7ziT3cqSX0A

                    Defaults on Russian debt would have serious long term impacts.
                    https://nypost.com/2022/03/11/wealth...ss-the-us/amp/
                    A motivated seller can lead to discounts. Trophy properties anyone? The problem is real estate ownership is really hard to track and enforce and seizure. The motivation is probably there.

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                    • Woah Hang Seng ripping!

                      Max Power - Baba is back to IPO price: might as well sell everything and go all in, since you seem to have high conviction. Especially now that there's much more clarity from CCP.

                      They finally got their heads out of the sand, realized you can't just sit back and watch your equity & real estate markets self-immolate, and expect to continue your breakneck economic growth.

                      Also interesting how they decided to get back in the good graces of US vis-a-vis ADRs and accounting transparency for their equities listed in US.

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                      • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                        Alibaba up 25% today... it has been a fun ride with S&P, commod, Chinese stocks, gold, etc.

                        I still don't get the wait-it-out and take your lumps approach. Never have. Even if the DOW is up 1000, it is still down for the month... I'm up a very significant amount (dozens of shares of GOOG, hundreds of BX, a hundred more SPY more than I had a month ago). The BABA would have been a crusher, but it was unreazlized... so that's back also.

                        The volatility is always a way to get more shares. Will you bat 1.000? Of course not, but you don't need to by any means.
                        I know you think you're uniquely talented and insightful and the data doesn't apply to you. For me the data is persuasive that the majority of individual investors, probably the vast majority, and definitely including me, aren't smarter than the markets and net of bid-ask spread, trading costs, taxes, opportunity costs are not going to come out ahead, and are probably going to be worse off. And I think when people tell me they are beating the market, I usually think they don't know how to compare to a proper benchmark and are maybe comparing to the S&P rather than an appropriate small or growth or commodities or alt investment benchmark. Or maybe they're just engaged in Beardstown ladies accounting. Or maybe they just ignored all the costs I noted above. Or maybe they really are that rare special case. But for me it's irrelevant. Buying 1/3 international stocks, 1/3 US stocks, 1/3 US Bonds with a value tilt has worked for twenty years, fifty years, one hundred years, and I'm pretty confident it'll help me reach my goals over the next 30-50 years. I never have to sell, and I never have to wonder what I should do with my investments. Set it and forget it and move on.

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                        • Originally posted by Tim View Post
                          https://stocks.apple.com/AyY4NzBbURvK7ziT3cqSX0A

                          Defaults on Russian debt would have serious long term impacts.
                          https://nypost.com/2022/03/11/wealth...ss-the-us/amp/
                          A motivated seller can lead to discounts. Trophy properties anyone? The problem is real estate ownership is really hard to track and enforce and seizure. The motivation is probably there.
                          These oligarchs are literally the richest people on Earth - much more so than any of the publicly listed CEOs like Musk, Bezos, et al. While it would definitely not be fun for them seeing some of their 8-figure properties frozen/seized in the US and UK, rest assured they have much more where that came from.

                          It's entirely plausible that Putin has been and currently still is a trillionaire - the amount of wealth that was created/stolen when the Soviet Republic crumbled and previously nationalized conglomerates were gobbled up by Putin & his functionaries for fractions of basis points on the ruble (no exaggeration - this is a point of fact) is staggering and incomprehensible. The only analogy that would be remotely similar would be someone who bought BTC at 10 cents in 2009.

                          I highly suggest 'Red Notice' by Bill Browder which is a great account of this transition.

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                          • Yes. They can buy whatever they want. Real estate to them is merely a storer of wealth. Who knows, what the chose as the next alternative? Simply asset allocation.

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                            • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

                              I know you think you're uniquely talented and insightful and the data doesn't apply to you. For me the data is persuasive that the majority of individual investors, probably the vast majority, and definitely including me, aren't smarter than the markets and net of bid-ask spread, trading costs, taxes, opportunity costs are not going to come out ahead, and are probably going to be worse off. And I think when people tell me they are beating the market, I usually think they don't know how to compare to a proper benchmark and are maybe comparing to the S&P rather than an appropriate small or growth or commodities or alt investment benchmark. Or maybe they're just engaged in Beardstown ladies accounting. Or maybe they just ignored all the costs I noted above. Or maybe they really are that rare special case. But for me it's irrelevant. Buying 1/3 international stocks, 1/3 US stocks, 1/3 US Bonds with a value tilt has worked for twenty years, fifty years, one hundred years, and I'm pretty confident it'll help me reach my goals over the next 30-50 years. I never have to sell, and I never have to wonder what I should do with my investments. Set it and forget it and move on.
                              Completely correct. MP, I am not writing this to pick on you or pile on but any novice investor reading this thread needs to be careful.

                              For every active trade there is a buyer and a seller.

                              The person on the other side of the trade is often a super computer programed by a math geek.

                              Can an ordinary doc outcompete repeatedly for decades?

                              Overconfidence is a real thing. Richard Thailer said it was the most common cognitive bias.

                              In 2000 this paper was published by Terry Odean:

                              Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors

                              The abstract is included here:

                              https://econpapers.repec.org/article...tive%20trading.


                              The author of the paper (Terry Odean) was on morningstar's podcast yesterday:

                              Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000554140471

                              Podcast title: Terry Odean: Who's on the Other Side of the Trade?

                              Podcast: The Long View

                              More info: A noted researcher examines investors' trading behavior in the Robinhood era, the role of social media, and gender differences in investing.
                              Last edited by Tangler; 03-16-2022, 12:10 PM.

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                              • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                                ...Max Power - Baba is back to IPO price: might as well sell everything and go all in, since you seem to have high conviction. Especially now that there's much more clarity from CCP...
                                I am out on BABA. Up 34 or 35% *in one day* right now.... fine for me (ok if I miss 36% or whatever it may end at, I want to miss any substantial correction tomorrow open). That is the biggest boost I have ever had in one day... I think maybe TeamHEalth was similar the day they got bought out by Blackstone. I was not holding half as many shares and the shares were worth less than half with that one, so I will take it here with Ali. Big win.

                                VWO is up 7% also... I will jump out of that also with some profits. I expect a bit of a correction later this week for BABA and the index, but it really doesn't matter... I will lock in a gain. You guys can rip all you want, but it's not as if I don't have the US indexes and everything that you hold also.

                                Today was, no joke, basically an average year's worth of gains on the BABA and NVO. Over a thousand of shares VWO and thousands of BABA. That is at least one year less of getting up at 5am for rounds or reviewing charts in depositions or dealing with admins. That's impactful. I sure didn't buy the Chinese stuff all at yesterday's price, but it ends with over 10% realized now (plus all of the covered call fees along the way), bought and sold over weeks and months... and it pays off all in one day. Can't keep a good dog down. Work$$$ for me.

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