Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Tim]

https://nypost.com/2022/03/12/ukraine-russia-war-elderly-couple-confront-armed-russian-soldiers/

It is a matter of character.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=egnJ0B3hYO0
It is a matter of character.

It is a shame from a human standpoint, that the USA can't focus on achievement and stop the name calling on the internet.
It is a matter of character, each and everyone of us.

[Lithium]

Sounds like you just need to adjust your threshold for taking a loss in the first place.

Increase it—by a lot, from the look of things.

Way less work, exact same result…

It’s almost no work, and whether it’s the same result is something that can only be known in hindsight.

[bovie]

It’s almost no work, and whether it’s the same result is something that can only be known in hindsight.

Personally, I can't imagine sifting through funds to find a fourth option, let alone with the additional requirement that this one also have already distributed its dividend so that I can save $100.

But I suppose everyone values their time differently.

Regarding the hindsight, that's not true. If you adjust your threshold, then it's actually a guarantee of the same result.

You just have to be okay with not constantly monitoring the market and with missing out on little dinky losses.

But that gets back to how one values one's time...

[Lithium]

Personally, I can't imagine sifting through funds to find a fourth option, let alone with the additional requirement that this one also have already distributed its dividend so that I can save $100.

But I suppose everyone values their time differently.

Regarding the hindsight, that's not true. If you adjust your threshold, then it's actually a guarantee of the same result.

You just have to be okay with not constantly monitoring the market and with missing out on little dinky losses.

But that gets back to how one values one's time...

You can set the alerts up for market drops so you don’t have to monitor the market.

And if the market suddenly rebounds, you could miss the chance to capture the loss.

$100 is a lot of money, at least to me. That’s way more than my TV is worth, and it buys me two weeks of groceries.

[bovie]

You can set the alerts up for market drops so you don’t have to monitor the market.

And if the market suddenly rebounds, you could miss the chance to capture the loss.

$100 is a lot of money, at least to me. That’s way more than my TV is worth, and it buys me two weeks of groceries.

Sounds like I need to shop where you shop.

Assuming that TV works and the food is edible, of course

[Max Power]

Chinese markets and stocks are getting skewered!

The news is bad, not the earnings... so I think it might time to load up on a few more contracts of VWO, BABA, TSM, etc today.

[xraygoggles]

Chinese markets and stocks are getting skewered!

The news is bad, not the earnings... so I think it might time to load up on a few more contracts of VWO, BABA, TSM, etc today.

So what if earnings are not bad - there are times when extrinsic factors play a larger role.

For ex: what happens if Russia-China form an alliance, which makes Chinese equities toxic to most investors? Makes no difference how much money Baba is making at that point. If you think that's not feasible, then you haven't been paying attention. Ditto VWO which is heavily Chinese equities I think.

[Zaphod]

Yep, people are just resetting their autocracy risk parameters and starting to actually discount these realities that were previously blown off. China could be in Russias position in 3 months easy, or choose themselves to close markets, limit trading etc....

I've pounded the table for years on here that people under estimated the risks and these were cheaper for good reason and arguably not cheap enough. The risk was simply never worth it.

If you want single stock or extra risk style trading, buy a 2 or 3x levered fund (UPRO/TQQQ) you'll get better upside and known risks with similar draw downs, etc....

[F0017S0]

Chinese markets and stocks are getting skewered!

The news is bad, not the earnings... so I think it might time to load up on a few more contracts of VWO, BABA, TSM, etc today.

Nice! First the Soviet markets, now Chinese markets. Probably because China is in direct communications with the Soviets over “assistance” of military and economic matters.

In the meantime, probably best for everyone to review a safety film: https://youtu.be/IKqXu-5jw60

Anyone else expecting a recession soon due to the Fed’s hawkish position? Think the likelihood of “overdoing” the rate increases in an inflationary environment increases the risks thereof?

[CordMcNally]

Nice! First the Soviet markets, now Chinese markets. Probably because China is in direct communications with the Soviets over “assistance” of military and economic matters.

In the meantime, probably best for everyone to review a safety film: https://youtu.be/IKqXu-5jw60

Anyone else expecting a recession soon due to the Fed’s hawkish position? Think the likelihood of “overdoing” the rate increases in an inflationary environment increases the risks thereof?

I honestly don’t think it matters what the Fed does. The end result will likely be similar. They’ve played themselves out of the game where they no longer control the outcome.

[Tim]

I honestly don’t think it matters what the Fed does. The end result will likely be similar. They’ve played themselves out of the game where they no longer control the outcome.

$8.7 trillion holdings is not exactly broke. They are still in the game. They question is do they have the guts to go all in which would destroy the game. Players fold and drop out. Significant influence, not control.

[PWMDMD]

I full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. If the market drops this week it’ll be unrelated.

Obviously, this post didn't age well but it is a reminder to me about why no one can predict the actions of even one other human being not to mention millions or billions = why it's impossible to time/predict the market. Not trying to pick on you - I didn't think it would happen either.

[Tim]

I am in awe about the access to real time information ( video , online, live broadcast and satellite). I would have to think Musk providing the satellite communications was huge factor.

My understanding is that what the world is seeing is called “misinformation” in Russia. Not permitted and gets you in prison. It’s a good thing Twitter hadn’t canceled access. We might want to revisit the ability of private companies to deny access.

[Dont_know_mind]

Yep, people are just resetting their autocracy risk parameters and starting to actually discount these realities that were previously blown off. China could be in Russias position in 3 months easy, or choose themselves to close markets, limit trading etc....

I've pounded the table for years on here that people under estimated the risks and these were cheaper for good reason and arguably not cheap enough. The risk was simply never worth it.

If you want single stock or extra risk style trading, buy a 2 or 3x levered fund (UPRO/TQQQ) you'll get better upside and known risks with similar draw downs, etc....

The narrative is that China could become like Russia. That's catching fire.
But who knows what could happen.

At some point Chinese stocks become cheap enough to buy and it's getting there for me to take a nibble soon.

One narrative that hasn't caught on fire is the oil producers vs consumers.
The west decided to disengage from oil.
Once it did this, there was no incentive for the US to stay invested in the middle east.
And there was no incentive for the oil producers to support the West.
The interests of the oil producers are now to extract the highest possible revenue from the customers and now that they have been discarded, why should they care about longevity of the customers.

And China has also disengaged towards renewables also, but it's actually developed some nuclear and is keeping the door open to Russia.
But at the end of the day, I would guess China's self-interests are overwhelmingly more aligned with the West than Russia.
Given enough pressure, I would guess the Chinese will let Russia fall.
And so the West will apply pressure on China.

But that doesn't mean China is Russia, so there may be a false narrative to play at some stage.

I actually see the Chinese and US working together pretty well in the last 20 years. After the GFC, the Chinese had a massive fiscal stimulus (2009-2010) to get the world economy going again when the US was unable to. The US has had a massive fiscal stimulus in 2020-21 to get the world economy kick started when the Chinese and Europeans were hampered. Interestingly the US stock market underperformed from 2009-2011, but very well thereafter and the reverse for the Chinese stocks. So it will be interesting if they run at the same pace or one outperforms the other the next 10 years.

Hard to have much on Chinese stocks, and I wouldn't but it wouldn't shock me to see them have a better decade than US stocks.

US stocks to me are still very overvalued. Maybe they never get to a good valuation again. I doubt it though.

[Dont_know_mind]

Yep, people are just resetting their autocracy risk parameters and starting to actually discount these realities that were previously blown off. China could be in Russias position in 3 months easy, or choose themselves to close markets, limit trading etc....

I've pounded the table for years on here that people under estimated the risks and these were cheaper for good reason and arguably not cheap enough. The risk was simply never worth it.

If you want single stock or extra risk style trading, buy a 2 or 3x levered fund (UPRO/TQQQ) you'll get better upside and known risks with similar draw downs, etc....

The other thing I remember about 2014 was that the Fed could have crushed the Chinese by raising US interest rates when the Yuan crisis occurred. They didn't. Which i could not believe at the time as there were compelling domestic arguments to and the futures market had even priced it in!

The Fed could hurt China now by increasing rates quickly here, but my guess is they won't. Despite the rhetoric the US-China relationship has been pretty supportive from my POV.