Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Dont_know_mind]

Things can still take a turn for the worse but he already didn't pick the best time to sell. I would be curious to hear his plan on getting back in but I doubt we'll get a plan. If we get further explanation it will most likely be in hindsight. Nonetheless, if things do drop, I fully expect him to come back in for a victory lap to try to earn useless internet points.

Cord, you idealist you.
The pragmatists might say that what we define as valuable is just ego.
Underneath the surface is … just more surface.

Who is to say that internet points are less valuable than real life points?

Say I decide at the end of life, I wasted years of my only life teaching medical students or impressing work colleagues. And later in my life decide they never gave a darn about me or I them.

Is that more meaningful than time on the internet getting likes from people I’m never likely to meet?

[CordMcNally]

Cord, you idealist you.
The pragmatists might say that what we define as valuable is just ego.
Underneath the surface is … just more surface.

Who is to say that internet points are less valuable than real life points?

Say I decide at the end of life, I wasted years of my only life teaching medical students or impressing work colleagues. And later in my life decide they never gave a darn about me or I them.

Is that more meaningful than time on the internet getting likes from people I’m never likely to meet?

I guess it depends on your motives. Do you (not you, specifically) interact on the forums because you enjoy the atmosphere and enjoy learning new things every day regardless of what people think or do you interact as a way to stroke your own ego? Those are two very separate things that can be difficult to separate. I don’t mean to put down online interactions. I mean to put down the motives behind it. Same thing for real life interactions.

[Tim]

Cord, you idealist you.
The pragmatists might say that what we define as valuable is just ego.
Underneath the surface is … just more surface.

Who is to say that internet points are less valuable than real life points?

Say I decide at the end of life, I wasted years of my only life teaching medical students or impressing work colleagues. And later in my life decide they never gave a darn about me or I them.

Is that more meaningful than time on the internet getting likes from people I’m never likely to meet?

Or Cord might be one if your colleagues that left and wasn’t impressed.
Apoligies. I thought you were great.

[Dont_know_mind]

I guess it depends on your motives. Do you (not you, specifically) interact on the forums because you enjoy the atmosphere and enjoy learning new things every day regardless of what people think or do you interact as a way to stroke your own ego? Those are two very separate things that can be difficult to separate. I don’t mean to put down online interactions. I mean to put down the motives behind it. Same thing for real life interactions.

That's sounds like a stoic philosophy.
I reckon I use the internet way too much for procrastination.
I do like reading other people's opinions and learning and this forum is great for that. But I have to also admit I'm also not without ego and do enjoy reading my own musings from time to time...

[Dont_know_mind]

Or Cord might be one if your colleagues that left and wasn’t impressed.
Apoligies. I thought you were great.

Sometimes the truth can be shocking. It might be better to live in the bliss of ignorance!

[Tim]

Sometimes the truth can be shocking. It might be better to live in the bliss of ignorance!

Is that you Mom?

[Dont_know_mind]

Is that you Mom?

Could be Tim, anything is possible on the internet...

[Tim]

Could be Tim, anything is possible on the internet...

My son once gave his older sister “advice” on med school applications in SDN. True. He discussed it at dinner so she wouldn’t follow it.

[TheDangerZone]

Will we ever see Max Power (not to be confused with the original MaxPower) again?

[CordMcNally]

Will we ever see Max Power (not to be confused with the original MaxPower) again?

I hope. I’m always curious about the thought process people go through on decisions like this. It would be nice to get in-the-moment thoughts. Win or lose, who cares? Nobody bats 100% and nobody bats 0%. I’m just curious what his plan is to get back in whether or not the market goes up or down from when he got out.

[Antares]

I did this on Feb 6, 2020, going against all my principles of investing. Sold a large percentage of my stocks. I did it because at that time I really believed I knew something that the market didn’t yet know. Truth be told, I was also afraid of the deluge coming. This proved to be correct. For a short time after the markets fell, I was pleased and relieved. But the inevitable occurred. I had no idea when to get back in. I watched as prices began to rise again. By the time I convinced myself to get back in, I had reduced what was a huge paper loss avoidance to a modest gain. I have never gone back to calculate it, because it’s not a happy memory. 10% gain max, maybe single digits. With enormous stress being out of the market as it rose. I doubt I will ever again “know something” that the market hasn’t yet priced in. But even if I do, I don’t trust that I will ultimate benefit from it. In hindsight, while I made some money, I prefer not to try to figure out the unfigurable.

Oh, just remembered - funny how we forget these experiments - I also did it the day before the Brexit vote - that was dumb, what did I think I knew that others didn’t? I made something like 5%. Dumb luck. Apparently lesson not learned.

I currently believe the market will fall over the next weeks or months or two years - I have no idea which. Not because of war, although that might be bad for markets in the short run if it happens. But more because of the inflation/Federal funds rate discrepancy, and the delay in raising rates earlier. I could be wrong and I’m doing nothing. There are standing orders to tie me to the mast if I ever again threaten to sell stocks because I think I can predict the future - Here I am at 63, and I still have to watch myself carefully to make sure I stick to what I’ve learned.

[Max Power]

I will post when I buy back in. I have no idea how some of you guys post so much... I have a full time busy job. I just posted this 2 or 3 days ago.

I have not bought back one share yet. A month ago, I was about 40pct indexes and 40pct stocks and 20pct cash (half of that gold or equivalent)... now 20 index/ 20 stocks/ 60 cash. I will post when I start buying back in... very likely to be gradual chunks (just as with COVID) since you never know when the rebound jump will come during the market slide.

The market reacts to surprises, mostly. If everyone is expecting something to happen, it’s already priced in at that point, long before it happens. You see this with earnings and events all the time. Nothing happens on an earnings beat that everyone expected....

Totally correct, but it's not as if you have to get in the moment something happens. Anyone who sold off within a week or two of housing crisis 2007 or Saddam sell-off (I was not in market yet for that one) or dot com or COVID (and then nibbled back in as it kept dropping for weeks) made fantastic money.

The Russia-Ukraine stuff is old news. I agree. That is the beauty: people are bored with it. The market has reacted (a few times). It is to the point where it WILL be a surprise if something meaningful happens. There were minor market slumps due to the concern of supply and energy and wasted war $ already this year and even 2021... but they recovered as nothing materialized. What we have been seeing last week and this week is not just talk and posturing anymore. There is a lot of smoke and tension... I feel it is inevitable that there will be conflict. Can you sell after that actually happens, sure. Will you do as well as I did anticipating it? No, unlikely.

[G]

I did this on Feb 6, 2020, going against all my principles of investing. Sold a large percentage of my stocks. I did it because at that time I really believed I knew something that the market didn’t yet know. Truth be told, I was also afraid of the deluge coming. This proved to be correct. For a short time after the markets fell, I was pleased and relieved. But the inevitable occurred. I had no idea when to get back in. I watched as prices began to rise again. By the time I convinced myself to get back in, I had reduced what was a huge paper loss avoidance to a modest gain. I have never gone back to calculate it, because it’s not a happy memory. 10% gain max, maybe single digits. With enormous stress being out of the market as it rose. I doubt I will ever again “know something” that the market hasn’t yet priced in. But even if I do, I don’t trust that I will ultimate benefit from it. In hindsight, while I made some money, I prefer not to try to figure out the unfigurable.

Oh, just remembered - funny how we forget these experiments - I also did it the day before the Brexit vote - that was dumb, what did I think I knew that others didn’t? I made something like 5%. Dumb luck. Apparently lesson not learned.

I currently believe the market will fall over the next weeks or months or two years - I have no idea which. Not because of war, although that might be bad for markets in the short run if it happens. But more because of the inflation/Federal funds rate discrepancy, and the delay in raising rates earlier. I could be wrong and I’m doing nothing. There are standing orders to tie me to the mast if I ever again threaten to sell stocks because I think I can predict the future - Here I am at 63, and I still have to watch myself carefully to make sure I stick to what I’ve learned.

Ha, Brexit! I took advantage of the drop in sterling and drank my profits (scotch)!

[GIMD]

I've been tax loss harvesting in my taxable account since last month but mainly because I needed cash for a house downpayment. Will probably buy back in after closing the house. I did tilt my 403b to a mutual fund that favors financial and energy after losing 7% last month and plan to keep this until next year. I've been watching the Russia-Ukraine situation in awe. It's impossible to predict what Putin will do.

[CordMcNally]

I will post when I buy back in. I have no idea how some of you guys post so much... I have a full time busy job. I just posted this 2 or 3 days ago.

I have not bought back one share yet. A month ago, I was about 40pct indexes and 40pct stocks and 20pct cash (half of that gold or equivalent)... now 20 index/ 20 stocks/ 60 cash. I will post when I start buying back in... very likely to be gradual chunks (just as with COVID) since you never know when the rebound jump will come during the market slide.

So, you have no plan?