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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Am I the only one who found it hilarious that the Belarusian president went on TV with a stick pointer from 1950, pointing to cardboard map showing Russian attack plans, accidentally showing that Russian troops were going to move on Moldova from the south, next? Oops. Gotta look at that cardboard next time, before the national security meeting is televised.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	F0084220-2C4F-4832-B9A8-6B7696C0FE9B.jpg Views:	0 Size:	300.8 KB ID:	323224

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    • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
      Am I the only one who found it hilarious that the Belarusian president went on TV with a stick pointer from 1950, pointing to cardboard map showing Russian attack plans, accidentally showing that Russian troops were going to move on Moldova from the south, next? Oops. Gotta look at that cardboard next time, before the national security meeting is televised.

      Click image for larger version Name:	F0084220-2C4F-4832-B9A8-6B7696C0FE9B.jpg Views:	0 Size:	300.8 KB ID:	323224
      Very amusing, unless you're Maldovian.
      Apparently Putin still uses Windows XP.
      Speaking of which, I am wondering wtf happened to current version of Windows. In the last month, my typing has about 10 times more errors that it used to. This is sort of as serious an issue as the geopolitical one, as I'm not sure if it's declining cognitive ability on my part or microsoft.

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      • Originally posted by Zaphod View Post
        the market doesnt mind wars between big vs small players, depending on the environment. it hasnt done well and is inflationary when large powers are at war, which makes sense.

        Good luck to you international/EM investors going to take a bit of a hammering but we will too eventually, but ofc, will be worse outside. Euro obviously directly impacted by the war, energy/inflation and refugess, EM will get crushed due to dollar.

        Maybe international will get so crushed it actually becomes a good buy here soon.
        I tend to think there's further to run on commodities. It's still unloved. China leading indicators for lending are starting to bottom (my interpretation), so although numbers in the next 1-3 months may decline for construction, I think the bottom is in. EM is basically China. I think also with they will have to pivot to living with COVID by year end and probably earlier so that may also boost construction and activity.

        Anyway, arguments can be made for both sides of the US 100%, international 100% or anything inbetween.

        What I would be very worried about in the current situation is being overweight bonds. It will take nominal yields a while to catch up. Inflation and negative real yields are not good for bonds.

        I love the HFEA idea (UPRO/TMF). But I also don't like to be in a strategy that's very popular. So I applied it to different indexes, mainly with a commodity tilt. My guess is the HFEA strategy will do poorly when QT starts in earnest.

        I don't think trees grow to the sky. There is no way I would lever tech here. And bubbles don't tend to re-form in the same place. I think this will be a commodities decade and the next bubble in tech will not be where it is now, maybe it will be biotech (XBI which is dying atm) in 10 years.

        I will go out on a limb and say something I haven't before. I reckon we have seen the Nasdaq top for the decade. Also the top for Bitcoin. These things can only be seen in retrospect, but it wouldn't surprise me. In fact I think it is likely, which is why I have the portfolio I have.

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        • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
          Is 100% international really any better than being 100% US? Yes, I get valuations are much lower for the former, but sometimes it's for a reason (earnings for Faang seem to back up valuations for ex)...

          Certainly in the near future, international & emerging mkts are gonna get absolutely rekt.
          Probably it's a wash in the long term. Maybe SP500 would be better over a 30 year period.
          For me it is what risk asset can I hold in the long term.
          Behaviourally, I can't buy stuff that is richly valued. So maybe FAANG keeps going up, I have no idea.
          I know what has worked for me is buying stuff that I know has value and holding it long term. This has worked for me in real estate.
          I'm really attracted to real assets, infrastructure or resources that are very out of favor.
          The last property I bought was 20 acres of development land in 2019 in an area dependent on natural gas mining. I bought it for 350k and it previously transacted for 1.8M in 2012. It was incredibly out of favor. I had no difficulty holding it through 2020.

          So I am not a momentum investor. I think everyone has to find their investing strategy. You have to be right about it appreciating in the time period you can hold and be able to hold on through turbulent times and grinding sideways markets.

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          • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
            Am I the only one who found it hilarious that the Belarusian president went on TV with a stick pointer from 1950, pointing to cardboard map showing Russian attack plans, accidentally showing that Russian troops were going to move on Moldova from the south, next? Oops. Gotta look at that cardboard next time, before the national security meeting is televised.

            Click image for larger version Name:	F0084220-2C4F-4832-B9A8-6B7696C0FE9B.jpg Views:	0 Size:	300.8 KB ID:	323224
            Imagine how much more he might have revealed if he had a Sharpie.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
              Lol, if you believe that, I don't know what to tell you.

              If you cherry-pick timelines, you can make market "stats" say anything you like. That no-name kid is picking war + recovery periods and saying war helps. Of course markets tend to recover eventually if fundamentals are strong. To say war helps or does not hurt? That's a joke. He cherry-picks timelines (war + recovery period... then stops the chart well after the war yet before the next market slump)... apparently trying to double down on some article he wrote awhile ago, but one look at the WW2 chart shows you that it crashed and he is FOS.

              Back in reality, in the months (and sometimes years) that follow a significant conflict the market suffers. Those are Pearl Harbor, Saddam Sell-off, Korean War, 9/11, etc are many of your biggest and most famous crashes in market history. This is common knowledge.

              ...The interesting part in the rest of this month will be to see if the USA markets can continue to diverge from the rest of the world. If nothing else, we might get an "invisible crash" of sorts (NYSE/NASDAQ markets wiggle largely sideways awhile - yet inflation diminishes buy power as we print billions and billions in that timespan). That was seen mostly in circa 1980 and 2009, but it goes on constantly to various degrees.

              As it sits a couple weeks after the Ukraine invasion, VWO and VEA are down 8%, world markets are down but VOO is only down less than half that. There are many days where France, China, etc are down... yet USA is up (maybe significantly). That usually doesn't continue forever, and it doesn't make sense to me. There is either pent-up energy for a USA stocks crash... or inflation is the buoy (and we'll get away with it since USD is the world reserve)? We shall see. Stay tuned.

              You can usually tell this inflation (invisible/silent market crash) by gold price spikes to account for all of the new money supply. Right now here is already $1B to Ukraine, another $10B for Ukraine bill, much more billions for COVID, etc etc going to vote. Fed has no room to go lower. Buckle up.. and buy a bit of gold.

              But yeah, to say war helps or does not hurt markets is not even worth any real reply. In other news, penicillins are bad for bacterium.
              As per usual, I have no idea what your mountain of text actually means but I will just note that if someone cashed out on 2/14, they would be stuck with a capital gains bill without whatever benefit the inevitable crash by weeks end you called for coming to pass. Two more weeks and actual conflict hasn’t helped your case either. Who knows what the next months will bring, definitely not you or me.

              Also strange you’ve never heard of Ben Carlson, even if his brand of analysis doesn’t fall in line with your beliefs.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post

                I tend to think there's further to run on commodities. It's still unloved. China leading indicators for lending are starting to bottom (my interpretation), so although numbers in the next 1-3 months may decline for construction, I think the bottom is in. EM is basically China. I think also with they will have to pivot to living with COVID by year end and probably earlier so that may also boost construction and activity.

                Anyway, arguments can be made for both sides of the US 100%, international 100% or anything inbetween.

                What I would be very worried about in the current situation is being overweight bonds. It will take nominal yields a while to catch up. Inflation and negative real yields are not good for bonds.

                I love the HFEA idea (UPRO/TMF). But I also don't like to be in a strategy that's very popular. So I applied it to different indexes, mainly with a commodity tilt. My guess is the HFEA strategy will do poorly when QT starts in earnest.

                I don't think trees grow to the sky. There is no way I would lever tech here. And bubbles don't tend to re-form in the same place. I think this will be a commodities decade and the next bubble in tech will not be where it is now, maybe it will be biotech (XBI which is dying atm) in 10 years.

                I will go out on a limb and say something I haven't before. I reckon we have seen the Nasdaq top for the decade. Also the top for Bitcoin. These things can only be seen in retrospect, but it wouldn't surprise me. In fact I think it is likely, which is why I have the portfolio I have.
                Im currently 50% commodities, a decent bit of that has been gains. The amount left to run may be substantial, if not bumpy. HFEA is a decent strategy but this is the exact worst environment possible, so its a def no. Bonds are a disaster and if you thought they were bad before, it'll probably get worse until we're forced into a recession (the most likely outcome that chills inflation).

                Agree about tech/btc, i dont know about a decade but def for a min, tech had massive out performance because it was hated AND had massive earnings and then was priced correctly and finally beyond.

                Stocks are simply not priced for where rates need to be to tame inflation, no matter if it is long lasting or not, and recent events just make sure it will be here at least a decent amount of time. Bonds arent either. But it will be great to pick up some bonds for the future at some point.

                We've gone over intl/us ad nauseam and I think the difference just continues to play out in an obvious fashion. UK is starting to get more tech, but their index is flat from the late 90s. Europe has given back all covid gains, that might come for everyone, and is kind of my base "most ironic" outcome likelihood, like covid was a most ironic in taking back all gains of trump presidency.

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                • All russian indexes are dead and being delisted. >99% down already, those are gone, RIP.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Zaphod View Post
                    All russian indexes are dead and being delisted. >99% down already, those are gone, RIP.
                    This is good for Brazillian and Australian indexes.
                    My antiquated country index tilting strategy is a bit like Putin's use of Windows XP.
                    I'm aware that there are resource index's out there, but I persist with the country thing to make my life more complicated.
                    Deep down though, I have this underlying delusional belief that I'm able to get cheaper commodity exposure in non-US countries.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Zaphod View Post
                      All russian indexes are dead and being delisted. >99% down already, those are gone, RIP.
                      tax loss harvesting for the win! uhhh....

                      💀

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                      • You think tech overpriced like ARKK tech or QQQ or all of the above?

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                        • I am probably throwing money away but after I bought an s-ton of OGZPY and RSX I was not allowed to buy more a few days ago nor convert USD to RUB on xe.com. Go figure?

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                          • I am now looking at non Taiwanese semiconductors and fertilizer companies. I believe I'm too late to the party.

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                            • Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
                              Am I the only one who found it hilarious that the Belarusian president went on TV with a stick pointer from 1950, pointing to cardboard map showing Russian attack plans, accidentally showing that Russian troops were going to move on Moldova from the south, next? Oops. Gotta look at that cardboard next time, before the national security meeting is televised.
                              I'd call it a happy accident, as it makes Putin's long-term plans crystal clear - no matter what he says, it's clear he never intended to just stop with Ukraine. (Although now that he's thoroughly stuck on Ukrainian flypaper, he won't have a choice about that.)

                              Comment


                              • What's the chance that this was a strategic leak? Trying to get the rest of the world to overreact faster and jump in sooner?

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