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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • The market is so crazy . Hard to predict when it will rally and what will spook it ? I doubt a Predicted raise will spook it

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    • Originally posted by Kamban View Post
      Will the expected Fed interest rate hike spook the market further? I know it has probably already factored into the stock prices but what happens if on the day of the rate hike there is a new offensive in Ukraine?

      Luckily COVID is lying quiet and not coming up with a new variant.
      Well, the State of the Union Address seemed to indicate everything is fantastic and under control and going exactly as planned. A lot of factoring in to do.

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      • Originally posted by Tim View Post

        Well, the State of the Union Address seemed to indicate everything is fantastic and under control and going exactly as planned. A lot of factoring in to do.
        This comes from the same President who stated last month that in his first year he exceeded expectations, so take that with a grain of salt.

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        • CNN is reporting that Russian troops have set a building on fire at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. It's not clear if the fire involves the actual building housing the reactor - but if it does, things might be about to get interesting (to say the least), as the reactor is the largest in Europe, and shares the same (badly flawed) design as the reactor at Chernobyl.

          God knows what the market is going to do when it hears THAT!

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          • Originally posted by artemis View Post
            CNN is reporting that Russian troops have set a building on fire at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. It's not clear if the fire involves the actual building housing the reactor - but if it does, things might be about to get interesting (to say the least), as the reactor is the largest in Europe, and shares the same (badly flawed) design as the reactor at Chernobyl.

            God knows what the market is going to do when it hears THAT!
            Some nuclear reactor expert on Twitter is saying this reactor actually has containments which Chernobyl didn’t have and doesn’t think this will be a second Chernobyl but still obviously not fantastic. Take that for face value but he seems knowledgeable.

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            • Originally posted by artemis View Post
              CNN is reporting that Russian troops have set a building on fire at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. It's not clear if the fire involves the actual building housing the reactor - but if it does, things might be about to get interesting (to say the least), as the reactor is the largest in Europe, and shares the same (badly flawed) design as the reactor at Chernobyl.

              God knows what the market is going to do when it hears THAT!
              futures were only down 1%. could this have been an intentional attack? I don't understand how that benefits russia at all. perhaps its part of his plan to "escalate to de-escalate"?

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              • Originally posted by triad View Post

                futures were only down 1%. could this have been an intentional attack? I don't understand how that benefits russia at all. perhaps its part of his plan to "escalate to de-escalate"?
                Control of infrastructure and energy is a “smart strategy”. Regardless of nuclear or fossil fuel.

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                • It is a big buying day...
                  A few 5 share blocks of GOOG, a few contracts of Blackstone and a contract of SPY, got back to where I was with many contracts of NVO.

                  The Google I got last week and index types are at a 5-10% or more discount versus start of this thread, the NVO shares are roughly a wash sale with what I sold them at a couple weeks ago. Added ten contracts of VWO today since it is beaten even worse than USA stocks.

                  Now at roughly 35% cash+gold/35 index/30 single stocks between the accounts. Is anyone else buying today?
                  Last edited by Max Power; 03-04-2022, 11:54 AM. Reason: spelling

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                  • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
                    Now at roughly 35% cash+gold/stocks/35 index/30 singles between the accounts. Is anyone else buying today?
                    Yes, I am picking up more Vanguard S&P 500 Index and Vanguard Developed Markets International Index shares today. I may do some tax loss harvesting from my Vanguard Small Cap index into S&P 500 later today as I am too top-heavy with small cap relative to large cap, but right now Vanguard won't let me pull up Specific ID lots, so I will have to try again later and see if whatever glitch is preventing me from viewing specific lots on that fund gets fixed.

                    If I can do some tax-loss harvesting, I'll sell some more of my Vanguard Total International Index and let the small cap loss offset the capital gains on the International Index sale. Right now none of my Total International Index lots are in the red, alas.

                    I've decided to keep $100k of the Total International shares to use to fund a scholarship this summer, so I only need to trade out of $50k. Then it will be developed markets only for my international exposure; no more China or Russia companies in my portfolio!

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                    • Yep another good international TLH day for me today

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                      • Would be interesting to hear comments on those that “tilt”. Specifically to Intl and EM. I don’t plan on rebalancing, I view it simply as diversification.

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                        • Originally posted by Tim View Post
                          Would be interesting to hear comments on those that “tilt”. Specifically to Intl and EM. I don’t plan on rebalancing, I view it simply as diversification.
                          I suppose you would have to define what an INT tilt is exactly. I think vanguard total world is around 40% international.

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                          • Originally posted by childay View Post

                            I suppose you would have to define what an INT tilt is exactly. I think vanguard total world is around 40% international.
                            Just saying that a few have chosen to use the “current” valuation to overweight Intl or significantly underweight US due to valuation that they view . @CM I thought had this in mind. Whatever the target allocation is, the rebalancing would be the issue.

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                            • Well, no tax loss harvesting for me today. My Small Cap fund has only one lot with a long-term capital loss, and it's only down by about a dollar. I'll have to wait another day to rebalance Small Cap and S$P 500.

                              First world problems, for certain!

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                              • Originally posted by Tim View Post
                                Control of infrastructure and energy is a “smart strategy”. Regardless of nuclear or fossil fuel.
                                I would be highly surprised if Ukraine didn't already set into motion when the war begun last week to shut down any critical infrastructure, with nuclear plants obviously being top priority.

                                Anyways, it ended up being sorta fake news. The building they were shooting at yesterday was a training facility.

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