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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Originally posted by Tim View Post
    The most effective economic deterrent against Russia would be really simple. A boycott of Russian oil.
    As long as oil flows, Russia will get paid some way or other. That at this time would be devastating.
    The question is, what economies would be damaged the most and which governments would survive?
    There is concern within the intelligence community about Putin's mental stability - total rejection from SWIFT, or total oil boycott is being seen as a "nuclear non nuclear" option. Fear of pushing him into a real corner and the unpredictability of his response. As with any caged animal, need to leave some kind of off ramp.

    ​​​​

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    • Originally posted by childay View Post
      Can anyone explain why Russia doesn't have air superiority yet? Seems odd in 2022 to be first rolling all these tanks anywhere
      In a decentralized battle environment even if they did have air superiority it would not make much of a difference

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      • Originally posted by nephron View Post
        This invasion with the resultant sanctions looks like a disaster for the Russian economy. That's the problem with these dictatorships/autocrats. They may work well when the leader in their prime and somewhat aware of their people's needs/not surrounded by sycophants. Over time though, I would imagine most autocrats get less attached to reality and looking out for whatever needs their people have. That's why Russia and China and several of these other countries ruled by autocrats are only going to get more dangerous as their leaders age. The reasons for this war seem absurd. By invading an eastern European country, the Russians seem to have accelerated and justified the growth of NATO rather then contracting it. The whole reason for NATO was to prevent this kind of thing from happening to it's member states. The scary part about these countries acting more erratic is that no degree of air superiority/superior tanks/military/etc is going to matter very much in a nuclear conflict.
        Ditto
        self fulfilling prophecy will haunt the Russians
        even the neutrals will not line up to join NATO

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        • Originally posted by G View Post

          Small amount of money. ERUS. No technical analysis or detailed approach. Market says it is worth X...Putin (I mean Russia) gets belligerent...market says it is worth X/4. The truth is probably somewhere in between. It feels like counting cards to a degree. (Any blackjack players out there?)

          I do not disagree with folks that say there is no such thing as "play money"...but it kinda feels like those days when WFC was in the single digits.
          ERUS at 75% down is interesting. I personally wouldn't, but it's probably not a bad idea.
          Sber bank at 1-2c (99.9% decline) looks like a lottery ticket and I would buy $50 worth, but hard to buy any individual stocks. Can't find a broker who will allow purchase of Russian ADR's currently. Likely too much of a headache.

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          • Originally posted by Tim View Post
            The most effective economic deterrent against Russia would be really simple. A boycott of Russian oil.
            As long as oil flows, Russia will get paid some way or other. That at this time would be devastating.
            The question is, what economies would be damaged the most and which governments would survive?
            They'd all survive, but the Europeans and Germans would be the most screwed.
            I think that's where my idea of having the troops in Ukraine conversation would really open up the possibilities.
            Faced with sending some troops in, the German's probably would cope with higher energy prices.

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            • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

              There is concern within the intelligence community about Putin's mental stability - total rejection from SWIFT, or total oil boycott is being seen as a "nuclear non nuclear" option. Fear of pushing him into a real corner and the unpredictability of his response. As with any caged animal, need to leave some kind of off ramp.

              ​​​​
              I wonder what the off ramps currently are because self-sanctions are already affecting Russia. I believe I read yesterday that there were no buyers for about 2M of the 10M or so barrels of oil Russia produces each day.

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              • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                I wonder what the off ramps currently are because self-sanctions are already affecting Russia. I believe I read yesterday that there were no buyers for about 2M of the 10M or so barrels of oil Russia produces each day.
                Self-sanctions are an interesting topic.
                Netflix customers in Russia were unable to pay for their subscriptions with credit cards issued by some Russian banks, including Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank and a target of U.S. sanctions. The problem was soon resolved, according to Netflix”
                Bitcoin anyone? That would be an interesting discussion of where independent vs control might need some thought.
                Are self-sanctions and self-restraint a good thing?
                Netflix seems to have made a choice. I hope they are at ease with it. Apple seems to have made a different decision.

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                • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                  I wonder what the off ramps currently are because self-sanctions are already affecting Russia. I believe I read yesterday that there were no buyers for about 2M of the 10M or so barrels of oil Russia produces each day.
                  I dunno if there is an off-ramp. Putin's Plan A was to drive tanks across the border to be welcomed by the hordes of sympathetic Ukrainians. The Ukrainian armed forces were supposed to collapse. The Russians were only supposed to have a handful of casualties.

                  He has had multiple opportunities to stop the war and has only doubled down in an attempt to "win".

                  The non-NATO countries bordering Russia are terrified and will be desperate to join the EU/NATO to avoid being the next Ukraine.

                  What Western country is going to risk investing or trading with Russia even if Putin withdraws tomorrow? Western companies with assets in Russia are facing huge losses as they are unsellable.

                  For someone who is supposed to be a strategic genius Putin isn't looking very smart.

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                  • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                    I wonder what the off ramps currently are because self-sanctions are already affecting Russia. I believe I read yesterday that there were no buyers for about 2M of the 10M or so barrels of oil Russia produces each day.
                    Exactly, it's hard to see a face-saving exit for Putin and yet that is the diplomatic imperative or we risk seeing Kiev turned into Aleppo.

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                    • Originally posted by zlandar View Post
                      The non-NATO countries bordering Russia are terrified and will be desperate to join the EU/NATO to avoid being the next Ukraine.
                      The autocrats currently running Belarus and Kazakhstan have thrown their lot in with Putin. Mongolia abstained in the UN general assembly vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Although Mongolia has been pretty close with the US defense sector, they’re landlocked between Russia and China.)

                      China isn’t in a rush to join NATO and North Korea is its own brand of evil.

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                      • Originally posted by Hank View Post

                        The autocrats currently running Belarus and Kazakhstan have thrown their lot in with Putin. Mongolia abstained in the UN general assembly vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Although Mongolia has been pretty close with the US defense sector, they’re landlocked between Russia and China.)

                        China isn’t in a rush to join NATO and North Korea is its own brand of evil.
                        Barring a nuclear war, will Russia be a vassal state of China after all of this?

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                        • Originally posted by burritos View Post

                          Barring a nuclear war, will Russia be a vassal state of China after all of this?
                          Debt peonage looks likely.

                          Russia’s demographic trends are worse than China’s. (Which is really saying something!)

                          China’s role in both military and commercial space launch is growing. Russia on the other hand…

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                          • Originally posted by Hank View Post

                            Debt peonage looks likely.

                            Russia’s demographic trends are worse than China’s. (Which is really saying something!)

                            China’s role in both military and commercial space launch is growing. Russia on the other hand…
                            In China, you at least get some firm talkings-to first. That HBO documentary about COVID showed the government was coming to people telling them to shut up about what was really going on during the pandemic. In Russia, you get thrown off the roof of your building, or beaten to death on your way home from work, or sent to prison for decades if you are lucky.

                            Both places will tell bald-faced lies as official government reports…. Not just the usual twisting of the truth. I always find it sadly amusing when people quote China’s COVID statistics…. That’s some serious naivety. You can’t use modern, western default assumptions when getting information from these places. Information is highly falsified, and it can be a serious crime to reveal the truth there.

                            It’s good that people are realizing this now.

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                            • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                              I'm gobsmacked that you are still loading up on Baba - aren't you at least a wee bit concerned about the CCP and their attempts to kneecap their prominent tech stocks into the ground?
                              Picked up 10 contracts today at 101.5 a share.

                              Sold calls on all for strike 112 for 03/18 for $1.60 each... $1600 into my pocket and I don't lose the shares unless they rise over 10% in the next week and a half (wouldn't mind that). Check back soon.

                              Basically, for those who don't own BABA (outside their indexes) and like to hate on it, it is a fantastic stock to sell options on (or buy options, but I don't do that). My 1099 was littered with hundreds and thousands of dollars in sold calls on BABA last year... although I did lose on many share price sales of it also. It has a lot of ways to pay you besides just through share growth... although share growth is not unreasonable to expect either based on its P/E and profits and biz model. Tesla used to be this way also (great volatility, fantastic options), but I think Baba has much better profits and fundamentals... I don't want to be stuck holding the bag on a company that doesn't profit.

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                              • Will the expected Fed interest rate hike spook the market further? I know it has probably already factored into the stock prices but what happens if on the day of the rate hike there is a new offensive in Ukraine?

                                Luckily COVID is lying quiet and not coming up with a new variant.

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