Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[FIREshrink]

You think you know something the market doesn't already know?

[Bmac]

Maybe tax loss harvest, but not exit the market. I will probably do that tomorrow for some fixed income funds. I've been tax loss harvesting among a few tax-exempt bond funds in our taxable account over the last 30 days and will probably go back to the original one on day 31. If I sold our equity index funds to exit the market I would have rather large LTCG for which we would have to pay 23.8% in taxes, most likely. That doesn't seem particularly smart.

[Tim]

Maybe tax loss harvest, but not exit the market. I will probably do that tomorrow for some fixed income funds. I've been tax loss harvesting among a few tax-exempt bond funds in our taxable account over the last 30 days and will probably go back to the original one on day 31. If I sold our equity index funds to exit the market I would have rather large LTCG for which we would have to pay 23.8% in taxes, most likely. That doesn't seem particularly smart.

Hindsight will tell. Just saying it could turn out to be a brilliant move.
Stirring the pot. Capital preservation is not without value.

[Dont_know_mind]

My 5 mins reading about the Russia-Ukraine last week. Thought there wad close to zero chance of Russia invading Ukraine.

They just wanted to shakedown the EU to play ball on Nordstream, & to show the US it can’t arm all their neighbors. I thought it was a different situation to when they took Crimea.

I bought more last week. I guess a market has many different POV’s. I have been burnt going to cash in the past on scares.

[Dont_know_mind]

I remember going to cash when the Bill Clinton impeachment was occurring. Just seems totally ridiculous now, but was actually very scary at the time. The whole Starr report, DNA analysis of Bill’s sperm on Monica’s dress had me very worried at the time.

[Nestor400]

Real time example of why you don’t time the market. You. Don’t. Know.

[Craigslist]

Isn't OP the one that bought BABA at 200 saying it was gonna go up?

[FIREshrink]

Market doesn't like war... never has. This might be the most predictable dip since COVID started...

I would say probably down 3-6% by week's end. The bottom will depend on the headlines.

And yeah, I did put my money where my prediction is... sold basically everything that isn't locked out on a covered call (so roughly half of my stocks/indexes sold and over 60% of my overall portfolio to cash now).

Global stocks climbed on Tuesday after Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that the country would pull back from its military standoff in Ukraine, easing concerns over disruptions in global energy supplies.
The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 1.3 percent, while Germany’s DAX index rose 1.7 percent and the CAC 40, the benchmark index in France, was up 1.4 percent.

[CordMcNally]

Isn't OP the one that bought BABA at 200 saying it was gonna go up?

Give it time...

[CordMcNally]

Things can still take a turn for the worse but he already didn't pick the best time to sell. I would be curious to hear his plan on getting back in but I doubt we'll get a plan. If we get further explanation it will most likely be in hindsight. Nonetheless, if things do drop, I fully expect him to come back in for a victory lap to try to earn useless internet points.

[Kamban]

And yeah, I did put my money where my prediction is... sold basically everything that isn't locked out on a covered call (so roughly half of my stocks/indexes sold and over 60% of my overall portfolio to cash now).

I don't think your selling a big chunk with no idea of when to get in was a good idea.

But I liked your linked video. Basically all funny clips of Seinfeld brings back memories of good times in NYC.

[Tangler]

Short term market fluctuations are impossible to predict.

Guessing the one week outcome is impossible to do repeatedly.

We forum nerds cannot even predict the one year outcome:

Last year no one here predicted > 20% returns in this poll.

https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/...rns#post311429

[Tim]

Short term market fluctuations are impossible to predict.
Correctly
Guessing the one week outcome is impossible to do repeatedly.
Correctly
We forum nerds cannot even predict the one year outcome:
Correctly
Last year no one here predicted > 20% returns in this poll.
One person did.
https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/...rns#post311429

Just saying the odds are against you no matter how many times you try.

[Tangler]

Just saying the odds are against you no matter how many times you try.

You are right! my mistake! Craigslist called it!

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

The market reacts to surprises, mostly. If everyone is expecting something to happen, it’s already priced in at that point, long before it happens. You see this with earnings and events all the time. Nothing happens on an earnings beat that everyone expected. It’s where the saying…. “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” comes from.

Now if Crimea is the Sudetenland, and Ukraine is Czechoslovakia, and what follows is what followed that….. there’s a surprise indeed. Some observe that these events are eerily similar, as are the arguments behind those moves.