Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[CordMcNally]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-step-plans-cut-dependence-115836984.html

A complete LNG terminal takes about 6-10 years. On top of that, the supplies are long term contracts and need a reliable source. The Keystone Pipeline an LNG supply sources seem to have been "cancelled". There is a possibility that energy independence gets a new look from the USA. Politically, this will be a challenge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LNG_terminals#United_States_and_Puerto_Rico

These are huge capital investments but I think energy policy will be changed. None of this will be short term. A pragmatic solution for the Climate Change seems to be needing some work.

That post was about oil and not LNG but from a US standpoint the US has always been a net exporter of natural gas. From an oil standpoint, I’ve long held the opinion that those who support something similar to a Green New Deal typically don’t live in reality and hopefully these recent events open their eyes. I’m always for finding better energy sources but it’s one of those things that we just can’t legislate ourselves into. It’ll take time. Until then, fossil fuels are king and we can’t rely on other people for them. In order for these sanctions to work, Americans are going to have to really swallow some higher energy prices.

[Dusn]

I admire Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. I would want a gun to defend myself and would try to find something to do to help the cause if I was there. I really wonder now about Putin's sanity. His advisor's sanity. Is WW3 starting? I really do not know. If it does we all have more to worry about than the stock market.

If Putin’s gone crazy, or maybe has neuro-syphilis, we may not get a chance to even worry at all. We ALL
live with several guns to our heads and our children’s heads everyday, in the form of nuclear weapons.

[artemis]

Russia accounts for only 0.8% of VTIAX. China accounts for 8.6%.

Any number higher than 0% is too high for me when it comes to those two countries.

Until the West completely quits buying Russian oil then you'll always be indirectly supporting Russia at some level.

Indirect support is tough to avoid, but direct support is another matter. Selling VTIAX is easy.

[Max Power]

Russia accounts for only 0.8% of VTIAX. China accounts for 8.6%....

Any number higher than 0% is too high for me when it comes to those two countries.

Indirect support is tough to avoid, but direct support is another matter. Selling VTIAX is easy.

You guys do know Alibaba, the largest company in China, is on the NYSE, right? It was number one market cap NYSE company at one time.

We all, well anyone who holds any index funds, have international exposure whether we like it or not (both directly and via US companies doing business/sales abroad). It is a global economy.

[burritos]

Yes or no or it depends?

[nephron]

I bought about $75,000 in the vanguard total world stock ETF in my taxable account in the beginning of January. I have tax loss harvested all but $20,000 since then converting the funds to the total stock market etf. I am tempted to convert the rest of the total world etf to the total stock market etf. I just think that the international/European stocks are going to be more adversely effected by this war then the US.

[CordMcNally]

I just think that the international/European stocks are going to be more adversely effected by this war then the US.

Flipping a coin would give you about the same chance of being correct.

[CordMcNally]

You guys do know Alibaba, the largest company in China, is on the NYSE, right? It was number one market cap NYSE company at one time.

We all, well anyone who holds any index funds, have international exposure whether we like it or not (both directly and via US companies doing business/sales abroad). It is a global economy.

I don’t believe we’ve said anything to the contrary.

[Max Power]

Yes or no or it depends?

I am definitely not buying index funds at this time... probably much better to enjoy the volatility unless a single stock you like really slumps.

Personally, I have not picked back up very much since this thread started... a few blocks of Google last week. I will look to get a few thousand NVO or BX back and more and more GOOG, but I'm in no hurry... there should be plenty of opportunities upcoming.

The market volatility should last as long as the conflict does... and I'd say that's now through March, at minimum (not "a short one" per thread page 4). The US and other countries are clearly propping Ukraine up as well as they can with aerial intel to let them be dug in and mainly ready for and ambushing any Russian advances. Ukraine is fairly tough. They can sit and defend for quite awhile with NATO country satellite maps, drones, and intel letting them know what attacks are coming where. It also helps to have many countries providing basically limitless ammo and supplies (many of which are likely US supply under guise of Poland, Bulgaria etc Ukraine neighbors).

I think that after a bit more propaganda of civilian lives lost, a few more failed peace talks, etc... then a few major powers are going to jump in and declare war, try to swiftly end this. That is, unless the current tactics of Ukraine supply assists, mapping, weapons, news media attacks, and any other underhanded ways of attacking Russia with commandos disguised as Ukraine are actually working to hold Russia out. I think it's near impossible Russia caves to the world opinion and the negative news pressure back in Moscow. It is more likely Russia begins to start fires to make smoke so the clear air assistance from countries "not involved in the war" isn't very effective. I'm sure they have thought of this, but they might be avoiding it to not get a bad rap for "burning Ukraine to the ground." News flash: Russia will always have a bad rap regardless.

The interesting stock market part will be to see if (when?) major events happen:
-NATO jumps into the fray as above to try to decisively end it
-a US or UK drone or fighter gets shot down in Ukraine, a few of American or Brit or French special forces "supply truck" guys get captured/killed and exposed to blatantly prove that countries who haven't declared are already very in the war
-Russia gets sick of indirectly fighting half the world in Ukraine uses a low-powered nuke to try to end the Ukraine situation
-China wakes up due to aforementioned issues (mainly NATO countries sneaking around in the war but not declared)
-something else happens that will really escalate the situation.
[Ukraine surrender seems highly unlikely as they have endless supply and surveillance help, which is the hardest part of a war]

...Personally, I still have thousands of shares of SDS and thousands of SPXU to short the US market. I like the US market, and I got burnt bad at the end of last week after looking clever early week... but I still just don't see that type of record market gains happening three days in a row with energy spiking, war costs, global economy grinding, most other major world markets slumping, etc. I may very well be wrong. I'll likely pull most of the shorts before market close tomorrow or definitely on Tuesday. I doubt the Monday peace talks will gain any traction, but State of the Union Address is Tuesday night, and the markets seem to spike when Sleepy Joe takes the mic and says anything but overtly declaring war.

We shall see. Nobody knows anything.

[F0017S0]

We shall see. Nobody knows anything.

Roger, that. We are all monkeys on a rock orbiting a star that in a few billion years will implode upon itself, turn into a back hole, and eliminate the local solar system. Eventually, the universe could collapse upon itself in a "big crunch" (reverse of the big bang), or it could "big rip", or a few other "big [thing]s"...

[F0017S0]

A couple of gems from Dr. Strangelove: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CRRVZqrRl0; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJAveWO5Lvc

Or The Simpsons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z77JFw2D6f8

[TheDangerZone]

Reports of peace talks happening Monday between Ukraine and Russia. I very much hope they are fruitful.

[Lordosis]

Roger, that. We are all monkeys on a rock orbiting a star that in a few billion years will implode upon itself, turn into a back hole, and eliminate the local solar system. Eventually, the universe could collapse upon itself in a "big crunch" (reverse of the big bang), or it could "big rip", or a few other "big [thing]s"...

I do not think our sun is massive enough to form a black hole.

[Lordosis]

The problem with timing the market is just like last week didn't make any sense so might next week. And the following month. The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[F0017S0]

I do not think our sun is massive enough to form a black hole.

I stand corrected; should have verified my assumptions...