Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[artemis]

It is obviously a war of attrition here. We shall see how it plays out.

The longer the war of attrition goes on, the worse the outcome is going to be for Russia. Thousands of people were already protesting in the streets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that is before the economic pain of the sanctions really starts to bite.

On a selfish note, this is making me feel a lot better about my decision last September to get out of the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund because I no longer wish to hold any Russian or Chinese stocks. I was planning to get out of my position slowly over time, but I think tomorrow I may just bite the bullet and sell all of my remaining shares. I will be bumping up my 2023 taxes, but right now I really don’t care.

[Tim]

I do think media does play a role. I have no doubt that both sides attempt to use it.
The only slant I have heard about is Russia has restricted media in Russia.
More light is a good change.
I disagree with the notion that media is a type of propaganda campaign.

[AR]

I’m sorry you’re confused. Your confusion is kind of like Sandra Bullock in While You Were Sleeping…

No worries. I haven't seen that movie, but all you've got to do is say what you actually mean.

[F0017S0]

No worries. I haven't seen that movie, but all you've got to do is say what you actually mean.

I just spent this morning (re)watching that old ABC made-for-TV movie The Day After, now that Pootie Poot has activated the strategic nuclear forces.

[F0017S0]

In this case arming citizen is just asking for a mass slaughter by red oops Russian army
isn’t it illegal under international law ?and I know all the gun toting “ conservatives “ are salivating at the thought of a civilian army defeating the reds ( ************************ let’s just call ‘‘em that ) but this can get really ugly for Ukrainian civilian men and their president does not seem to care about their lives.
Sensible thing to do would be what Denmark did during ww2 , limit casualties and save lives of your men

I think the appropriate nomenclature is REDCOM...

[nastle]

I do think media does play a role. I have no doubt that both sides attempt to use it.
The only slant I have heard about is Russia has restricted media in Russia.
More light is a good change.
I disagree with the notion that media is a type of propaganda campaign.

To an extent yes I agree

but media directs us where it wants
there is / was a long running war in Yemen and a great humanitarian disaster but it rarely got much press as a dictator we like was the culprit

[Turf Doc]

The longer the war of attrition goes on, the worse the outcome is going to be for Russia. Thousands of people were already protesting in the streets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that is before the economic pain of the sanctions really starts to bite.

On a selfish note, this is making me feel a lot better about my decision last September to get out of the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund because I no longer wish to hold any Russian or Chinese stocks. I was planning to get out of my position slowly over time, but I think tomorrow I may just bite the bullet and sell all of my remaining shares. I will be bumping up my 2023 taxes, but right now I really don’t care.

Man do international stocks really have a tough time helping their case

[Tim]

Man do international stocks really have a tough time helping their case

Russia and China are Emerging Markets, not really classified as international normally.

[CordMcNally]

On a selfish note, this is making me feel a lot better about my decision last September to get out of the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund because I no longer wish to hold any Russian or Chinese stocks. I was planning to get out of my position slowly over time, but I think tomorrow I may just bite the bullet and sell all of my remaining shares. I will be bumping up my 2023 taxes, but right now I really don’t care.

Man do international stocks really have a tough time helping their case

Russia accounts for only 0.8% of VTIAX. China accounts for 8.6%.

Until the West completely quits buying Russian oil then you'll always be indirectly supporting Russia at some level.

[Turf Doc]

Russia accounts for only 0.8% of VTIAX. China accounts for 8.6%.

Until the West completely quits buying Russian oil then you'll always be indirectly supporting Russia at some level.

Right, not about supporting necessarily but as we all know perhaps the most important thing about an asset allocation is not what it actually is, but about if you can stick to it through thick and thin. When I see what happened with BABA, this thing now with Russia, idk, it just doesn’t inspire confidence for me. I feel like having more international diversification, whether it’s emerging markets or not, might make me less likely to stick to the plan.

[CordMcNally]

Right, not about supporting necessarily but as we all know perhaps the most important thing about an asset allocation is not what it actually is, but about if you can stick to it through thick and thin. When I see what happened with BABA, this thing now with Russia, idk, it just doesn’t inspire confidence for me. I feel like having more international diversification, whether it’s emerging markets or not, might make me less likely to stick to the plan.

If you have 25% international in VTIAX then China is 2.15% of your portfolio and Russia is 0.2%. Those aren't big enough percentages for anyone to truly notice if they completely tank. Granted, there will be huge shockwaves if the Chinese economy truly tanked. If you can't stick to your plan then your plan isn't right for you and it needs adjusted.

[Turf Doc]

If you have 25% international in VTIAX then China is 2.15% of your portfolio and Russia is 0.2%. Those aren't big enough percentages for anyone to truly notice if they completely tank. Granted, there will be huge shockwaves if the Chinese economy truly tanked. If you can't stick to your plan then your plan isn't right for you and it needs adjusted.

Right, i agree. I mean right now i barely have a plan because, while im proud of what ive been able to invest thus far, its peanuts in the long run so i'm just 100% VTSAX which has obviously been easy to stick to in recent history. as an attending ill have to force myself to include international probably, but until then im happy to pay attention to whats going on and gain more experience so by the time i have real money coming in i know myself better.

[Tim]

Russia accounts for only 0.8% of VTIAX. China accounts for 8.6%.

Until the West completely quits buying Russian oil then you'll always be indirectly supporting Russia at some level.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germa...115836984.html

A complete LNG terminal takes about 6-10 years. On top of that, the supplies are long term contracts and need a reliable source. The Keystone Pipeline an LNG supply sources seem to have been "cancelled". There is a possibility that energy independence gets a new look from the USA. Politically, this will be a challenge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...nd_Puerto_Rico

These are huge capital investments but I think energy policy will be changed. None of this will be short term. A pragmatic solution for the Climate Change seems to be needing some work.

[Antares]

We in the west have to shoulder a lot of the blame on one hand encouraging Ukraine to show Russians defiance and now doing nothing to stop them
on top of that now sending arms to them ? So we can fight Russia to the last Ukrainian?
Disgraceful
Similarly in ww2 Poland was given guarantees and when Germans invaded the western front was silent even though nazis had a weak army in 1939 and obviously no nukes , while France had twice as much artillery and 4 times as many tanks
stalin murdered thousands in Kathyn forest and Churchill s biggest concern is to bomb that glorified coast guard kriegsmarine ships

Not a fair assessment.
The west did not make Ukrainian policy nor decide for the Ukrainians whether or not they wished to defend their country. And let’s not forget a previous offer to send arms if only Zelensky would “Do me a favor”. Wasn’t exactly encouragement; it was they wanted arms and we said no, not unless you give us what you want. It’s the opposite of encouraging defiance. It’s actually an abandonment of Ukraine. This was not a case of naive Ukrainians hoodwinked into defending themselves, and I’m sure the brave Ukrainians now fighting for their country would take extreme offense at that characterization. They were under no illusions about Putin, and took the measure of the man more accurately than we did. They saw the results in Chechnya and Georgia. Sometimes a country just happens to be located in a dangerous neighborhood, and they have no choice but to decide how to deal with a powerful and aggrieved country next door. The Ukrainians tried to go their own way. They knew there would be no NATO membership and no boots on the ground or planes in the sky. We’d love those things, they said, but please just send us arms to defend ourselves. They chose to fight for their country rather than capitulate. Argue over whether that was wise, not over whom to blame.

As to the comparison to prewar Poland, there is no parallel here. Poland was under no illusion that Britain or France could rush to their defense - they couldn’t - and the Poles did nothing to encourage Nazi aggression upon western guarantees, or to “defy” Hitler. They happened to inconveniently be located in a place that Hitler planned to overrun on his way to the Soviet Union. The guarantee given to the Poles were very soft, and the actual intention of the Polish guarantees was a futile attempt to deter an undeterrable Hitler.

[Tangler]

The longer the war of attrition goes on, the worse the outcome is going to be for Russia. Thousands of people were already protesting in the streets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that is before the economic pain of the sanctions really starts to bite.

On a selfish note, this is making me feel a lot better about my decision last September to get out of the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund because I no longer wish to hold any Russian or Chinese stocks. I was planning to get out of my position slowly over time, but I think tomorrow I may just bite the bullet and sell all of my remaining shares. I will be bumping up my 2023 taxes, but right now I really don’t care.

I bought more international (total international stock index funds).

Long term I think it is reasonable to be 20-40% international.

Buy and hold. 20 year plan. Long term strategy.