Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[AR]

Are you looking for me to rank every problem for the US?

Obviously not. Not our "main problem" says basically nothing. It could be our number two problem or not a problem at all. Then when you say stuff like "not my circus...", it sounds like you're implying the latter. Then later you seem to imply that current levels of support to Ukraine are not a bad idea, which makes "not a problem at all" not right either. It's all very confusing.

The US isn’t currently directly involved (troops on the ground, Air Force bombing, etc.) yet so it’s not something that’s currently at the top of my list. I feel your list is probably different than mine and that’s ok. I’m sorry I don’t have a metaphor that you approve.

No problem. I'm sure it was unintentional. Maybe just stay away from the metaphors for a while.

[Max Power]

Respect, yes... but their nationalism is basically sentencing many civilians to death at this point. It is sad to watch...

...In modern urban warfare, every hands count and a country's will is especially important. I think Zelenskyy is aspirational. He's doing everything that a president should be doing and more. Rallying his people, supporting his troops...

Or maybe they just don't want to be called "Chicken Kyiv"?

[nastle]

Or maybe they just don't want to be called "Chicken Kyiv"?

In this case arming citizen is just asking for a mass slaughter by red oops Russian army
isn’t it illegal under international law ?and I know all the gun toting “ conservatives “ are salivating at the thought of a civilian army defeating the reds ( ************************ let’s just call ‘‘em that ) but this can get really ugly for Ukrainian civilian men and their president does not seem to care about their lives.
Sensible thing to do would be what Denmark did during ww2 , limit casualties and save lives of your men

[uptoolate]

The people of Ukraine have had centuries of dealing with 'foreign' invaders and oppressors so I feel that they are in a better position to decide what is the appropriate response to the current aggression than I am. In the last hundred years they have been faced with Czarist Russia, Austria-Hungary, Communist Russia, Hitler, Stalin, and Post-communist Russia. I have no idea what I would do. Certainly the safest thing would be to surrender and hope for reforms in the future but this may not be the best path to chose. I admire their collective spirit in the face of what seems like impossible odds.

I spent several months working with a project in several parts of Ukraine in the mid-2000s. This included a great deal of time in Donetsk. Wonderful people. Those that I am still in touch with were very unhappy with the Russian supported incursion into the Donbass and the seizure of Crimea and are now in the thick of it. I hope that whatever the world's response is that it is effective in maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty and fragile democracy.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

I remember watching Operation Desert Shield turn into Desert Storm on live cable news years ago. Now we get to see the next generation of this progression with the first TikTok streamed war.

You can see local footage of Putin actually freeing the Ukrainian people, in almost real time these days. It’s shocking and sad what’s online, what doesn’t make it on to the news. This clip did actually….

To paraphrase a quote from TV…. “He would see this country burn, if he could be king of the ashes”.

[Dont_know_mind]

I remember watching Operation Desert Shield turn into Desert Storm on live cable news years ago. Now we get to see the next generation of this progression with the first TikTok streamed war.

You can see local footage of Putin actually freeing the Ukrainian people, in almost real time these days. It’s shocking and sad what’s online, that doesn’t make it on to the news. This clip did actually….

To paraphrase a quote from TV…. “He would see this country burn, if he could be king of the ashes”.

It's pretty amazing how good the Ukrainian social media propaganda (and I use this in a positive way) has been. They have been preparing for this for a while it seems.

The financial sanctions announced are fascinating. It may precipitate another ruble crisis like in 2014 when they took Crimea. I wouldn't want to be holding rubles atm. The swift sanctions don't amount to much, but neutering the central banks ability to defend it's currency is a pretty big stick.

[Dont_know_mind]

Interesting - out of curiosity, what are you using to gain leverage? Letfs, margin, options, futures, loans?

I have a somewhat similar investing mindset, but I sprinkle some 2x Spx etf in various accounts to add some leverage to my large VTI position for the long term.

I had not been keen on LETF's in a previous thread, but changed my mind in the last 12 months. I am currently using mainly non-callable/real estate backed funding facility and LETF's. I have 80% vanilla index funds and 20% LETF's. The funding cost was not that much more for the non-callable debt in 2020-21, but this year the LETF's have a significantly cheaper funding cost. I have been meaning to get a margin loan for even lower borrowing costs. I may do this if borrowing costs continue to increase and the cost difference makes it worth the effort. I think it is important to have a bank loan facility to bail you out if you do have a sizable margin loan.

When I said I am 2X levered, I have 2X LETF's and my net equity in the index funds is about 50% for the vanilla index funds. I have some property that I intend to sell in the next 2-6 years. So the debt is mainly to smooth out the fact that I am very short my final desired index fund allocation. The index funds and LETF are around 25% of my NW and the other 75% is still in property. When I sell the property, I intend to discharge the debt on the vanilla index funds and eliminate the leverage. I guess I could also discharge the debt by selling the LETF if they have appreciated enough and keep the property. But the properties I have are so cashflow negative, I can't retire unless I sell them.

What is your % LETF in retirement and taxable space ? Do you have something to rebalance with the LETF's?

[White.Beard.Doc]

Putin is a ruthless dictator in growth and expansion mode. We have no idea if, when, or where he will stop his aggression. If he keeps pushing the envelope, we are looking at WWIII.

[CordMcNally]

Obviously not. Not our "main problem" says basically nothing. It could be our number two problem or not a problem at all. Then when you say stuff like "not my circus...", it sounds like you're implying the latter. Then later you seem to imply that current levels of support to Ukraine are not a bad idea, which makes "not a problem at all" not right either. It's all very confusing.



No problem. I'm sure it was unintentional. Maybe just stay away from the metaphors for a while.

I’m sorry you’re confused. Your confusion is kind of like Sandra Bullock in While You Were Sleeping…

[Tim]

Putin is a ruthless dictator in growth and expansion mode. We have no idea if, when, or where he will stop his aggression. If he keeps pushing the envelope, we are looking at WWIII.

WWIII - there is no referee and the rules of engagement haven’t been determined yet. And of course, rules are made to be broken. This could turn very ugly very fast for a very long time.
I don’t think the civilian population has a clue about even the weapons that would be used or where. Putin has ordered nuclear forces on high alert. There will be an end to this conflict. I don’t think anyone knows what it is or when.
Appeasement of resist? History will tell.

[Hatton]

I admire Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. I would want a gun to defend myself and would try to find something to do to help the cause if I was there. I really wonder now about Putin's sanity. His advisor's sanity. Is WW3 starting? I really do not know. If it does we all have more to worry about than the stock market.

[CordMcNally]

I admire Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. I would want a gun to defend myself and would try to find something to do to help the cause if I was there. I really wonder now about Putin's sanity. His advisor's sanity. Is WW3 starting? I really do not know. If it does we all have more to worry about than the stock market.

I'm sure he actually believes the things he says. Every day seems to get a bit worse. At this point, I don't think there's an easy off-ramp for Putin or an easy way to save face.

[Tim]

I'm sure he actually believes the things he says. Every day seems to get a bit worse. At this point, I don't think there's an easy off-ramp for Putin or an easy way to save face.

We think of Putin as cold, calculating and rational.
Putin may view it differently. Visionary hard driving leader with a destiny to achieve. For certain, Putin created an echo chamber for a long time. Alternatives to his visions would be problematic to say the least. He may be living in a different world.

[nastle]

We in the west have to shoulder a lot of the blame on one hand encouraging Ukraine to show Russians defiance and now doing nothing to stop them
on top of that now sending arms to them ? So we can fight Russia to the last Ukrainian?
Disgraceful
Similarly in ww2 Poland was given guarantees and when Germans invaded the western front was silent even though nazis had a weak army in 1939 and obviously no nukes , while France had twice as much artillery and 4 times as many tanks
stalin murdered thousands in Kathyn forest and Churchill s biggest concern is to bomb that glorified coast guard kriegsmarine ships

[Max Power]

It's pretty amazing how good the Ukrainian social media propaganda (and I use this in a positive way) has been. They have been preparing for this for a while it seems...

Yes, 100%...
This is not surprising that the propaganda and news slanting heavily to Ukraine happens, but very excellent for them in how it is actually being published. It surely helps to have the quips from a president who was a professional comedy actor for many years. The guy is charismatic and good on camera.

I'm sure the Russian news is 99% pro-Russia.
Ukraine is probably 98% pro-Ukraine (both in touting their victories or painting Russia as civilian-attacking butchers).
US and UK news and other world seems to be 90% pro-Ukraine.

Just among the implications of stories I've seen so far (CNN, Fox, BBC, etc):
Russian soldiers are bumbling fools (lost, running out of gas, begging for food, etc).
Ukraine military is dominating (many pictures of damaged Russia vehicles, almost zero of any Ukraine losses).
Russia attacks civilian areas (many pictures of damaged Ukraine buildings, cars, etc.... almost none of their military damaged).
Ukraine men talk tough, women and elderly are sobbing.
Russian soldiers are captured and surrendering, but Ukraine treats them well.
Oh, and I think I've seen that story of a Ukraine 6-year old killed re-posted about a dozen times on CNN.
...it is really a good show to watch, although anyone with half a brain knows it's very one-sided.

The take home, for me, is how even the US military invading Mexico would probably look like fools if Mexico had the support of dozens of other countries via media, money, supplies, probably commandos and drones covertly helping the Mexico military, etc. It is obviously a war of attrition here. We shall see how it plays out.