Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Max Power]

...Evacuation from a bluff would have been illogical...
..."Give me liberty or give me death" - P Henry...

I am not against trained military men paid to fight or governmental men, such as Henry, wanting to fight for any patriotic reason that makes sense to them.

As I said, I believe it to be absolutely nonsensical for Ukraine to not have began logistics of evacuating sooner. To try to pretend it is a normal work day when foreign tanks have literally crossed your borders is insane. Enacting a ban of non-elderly men from leaving the country is nuts. That breaks up families or makes the wives and kids women stay in a very dangerous place. People say "well the USA did that with the draft," and no, we really did not... we had suggested the men be registered for the draft... to then potentially be trained for military duty... to then be possibly deployed once trained and armed... under military leadership and into conquest with a fair chance of success. Ukraine is suggesting and softly mandating the peasants use their farm tools to take down the orders and orders of incoming crusade knights. Not cool.

We are not talking about women and children and non-trained male civilians simply passing buckets to help fight the town fire here. To encourage that college students and accountants and baristas who have never fired a weapon should immediately pick up AKs expect them to have any success whatsoever against true military forces is crazy. Think about that. To outlaw evacuation for the millions of civilian men with no training and no desire for combat is worse. I am fine with the men or women in Ukraine or anywhere who want to fight doing so, but maybe I am from the old school where the man of the house and perhaps elder sons might try to defend against a raiding party to buy time for the wife and young children to wisely flee what is clearly overwhelming forces.

People act as if the edges of Ukraine are all some cliff with razor sharp rocks or a river with whitecaps or active volcanos. It is quite the opposite: numerous countries similar to their own or even more prosperous wait to support and feed them with open arms. Will it be tough to leave a place you lived and worked? Of course, but the whole world is covered in dirt and grass and trees with various names to the plots of land. Will it be tough to largely start over financially and possibly learn a new language? Yup, but at least they are alive. Things like this reinforce one of the reasons why I buy (physical) gold: one can't exactly cash out bank or online stock accounts and leave the country in a hurry during a cyber attack and military invasion.

...I hope the best for Ukraine, but they are choosing the 'death before dishonor' thing by culture and by their leadership (since that leadership is pretty cooked at this point... yet civis do not have to be). The president and others are stoking those ' fight until the end' flames hard and fast, but they are terribly outmatched and it was a bad mistake to not prep for evac sooner. And yes, I realize they think (err, they thought?) they will get UK, US, French, etc carpet bombing, sattelite strikes, tanks, etc for support.

The best they will get is some money, some supplies, sanctions, and a few sneaky military help bursts here and there disguised as Ukraine. The US taking out a Russia tank or aircraft or two as they are on "evacuation mission" for their diplomats or guised among Ukraine guerilla force won't help much in the grand scheme. Ukraine is toast and should be getting innocent people who want nothing to do with it out fast. That was Ukraine's mistake to assume the world had their back early and often. They were talking tough and training 60 year old ladys to shoot rifles when they could have been setting up more efficient evac routes. The president is asking for more sanctions, supplies, support at every chance... and logically so. Nobody wants to see them or anyone struggle, but it's sure not worth WW3 either. It is time for civilians to let the military do what they want but to start making some white flag-covered buildings in Kyiv.

'CNN: 12:11 a.m. ET, February 24, 2022
People are going to work in Ukraine's Kramatorsk following reports of explosions in area, local official says

Though there have been several explosions reported around the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, it is currently calm and people are going to work as the sun rises, a local official said.

There were two explosions in Kramatorsk about 5 a.m. local time (10 p.m. ET) and a few more just minutes ago, according to Tatanya Ignachenko, the press secretary of the civil-military administration Donetsk Oblast.
“There is no plan to evacuate people at this moment. It seems calm in Kramatorsk. People are going to the factory for their 6 a.m. shift,” she said.'

[FIREshrink]

It is a lot easier to get weapons out of Afghanistan when you are actually in control. It is a lot easier to get weapons into Ukraine when there is not a war going on.
Choices have been made that were not based upon military or logistics strategies. Both Putin and Biden strongly consider and make less than optimal choices from a warfare standpoint. Putin, not disrupting the Olympics regarding Ukraine. Biden trying for the 9/11 anniversary regarding Afghanistan. Simplified view for sure.

I completely agree a puppet government was Putin's goal. The question is the next step. Ukraine leadership is willing to negotiate. I actually interpret not as a sign of weakness, but more of a concern for the humanitarian good of the population that will pay a heavy price.

If they were just going to negotiate they could have and should have done that before the invasion. It seems stupid to have basically called Russia's bluff and then fold. Hundreds if not thousands of lives lost.

Don't underestimate the power of an insurgency, look at Syria or Afghanistan or Iraq, Russia can win of course but if at enormous cost at some point it becomes a Pyrrhic victory.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

They are clearly choosing the last option 'death before dishonor' out of pride or stubborn nature. It's tragic, but Ukraine is not some island they can't possibly leave. All of the NATO rounds and RPGs and fuel and money in Europe won't do them any good if they have no training, vehicles, and people to realistically use them against one of the world's strongest military occupying and taking over the land's resources. The moral of the story is that with wars and famine and natural disasters, the survivors are typically those who have the foresight to get out early... go where you are treated best. A bunch of fancy speeches or colored lights on landmarks in other countries don't keep you alive.
[/SIZE]

There are different types of people out there and their characteristics are revealed during crisis like these.
For some people, there are things more important than their own personal success, or wealth, or comfort. Things that are worth dying for.

Sure, your survival is better if you escape, but if everybody took this approach, there would eventually be no where to escape to. Somebody has to hold the line. Somebody has to sacrifice and die, so that others can live in comfort and safety.

Unfortunately, we might be entering another “time of heros”. History will tell us if it was worth it.

[nephron]

Speaking of heroes, when the US reportedly offered to get Zelenskyy somewhere safe, he was quoted as saying "I need ammo, not a ride". That's got to be one for the history books.

[AR]

I like for things to be black and white but this is nowhere near that. It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are self-proclaimed breakaway states. How many resources should we devote to this when the people that live in these regions are seemingly fine with this? This is a 'not my circus, not my monkeys' situation. Now, if Russia were to truly invade non-separatists areas then we'd have a different situation but I also don't know how many resources we should devote to that situation, either.

Curious if you still think bolded after recent events.

[CordMcNally]

Curious if you still think bolded after recent events.

Yes. What’s changed? NATO, or its individual countries, sending weapons and supplies? This has been happening (whether public or not) since the beginning of wars. Sanctions? We’re the king of sanctions, although most are fairly harmless with many loopholes. Once the US gets actually dragged in then it’s my monkeys and circus.

[FIREshrink]

Yes. What’s changed? NATO, or its individual countries, sending weapons and supplies? This has been happening (whether public or not) since the beginning of wars. Sanctions? We’re the king of sanctions, although most are fairly harmless with many loopholes. Once the US gets actually dragged in then it’s my monkeys and circus.

You said it would be different if Russia went beyond the separatist regions. They're now bombing a major European capital, bringing vicious weapons of war like flamethrowers to civilian population centers, and plans of mass human rights abuses have been unearthed. This is far from a limited decapitation exercise and obviously has nothing to do with the separatist regions.

Does it change anything? Germany has changed its tune and is sending arms to Ukraine. Evicting some Russian enterprises from SWIFT is being openly discussed. There is now discussion of freezing Russian central Bank assets. Finland and Sweden talking of reconsidering NATO membership. Tens of thousands of NATO troops into Eastern Europe. This is no limited raid, this is evolving into Clausewitzian total war, albeit on a geographically limited basis. In total war are we going to do more against naked aggression? I know what we said a week ago. Things have changed.

Of course the stock market is flat since the thread was started. If Putin has gone mad and the world figures it out , I expect a much more serious downdraft than 3-6%.

[Tim]

Speaking of heroes, when the US reportedly offered to get Zelenskyy somewhere safe, he was quoted as saying "I need ammo, not a ride". That's got to be one for the history books.

I am certainly amazed at this dude. From his early push back to running of to Germany and playing the press to the hilt has been masterful.
The funny thing, he does not need a speech writer or messaging.
In one word, Authentic. Deserves a gold medal for sure.

[Tangler]

I am certainly amazed at this dude. From his early push back to running of to Germany and playing the press to the hilt has be masterful.
The funny thing, he does not need a speech writer or messaging.
In one word, Authentic. Deserves a gold medal for sure.

I hope he and his family survive.
Hero.
Courage.
Respect brother! Fight on!

[AR]

Yes. What’s changed? NATO, or its individual countries, sending weapons and supplies? This has been happening (whether public or not) since the beginning of wars. Sanctions? We’re the king of sanctions, although most are fairly harmless with many loopholes. Once the US gets actually dragged in then it’s my monkeys and circus.

You picked a really weird metaphor. Generally if it is a not your monkeys, not your circus situation, then you would be opposed to spending any time/effort/money on it at all.

Also what FIREshrink said.

[CordMcNally]

You said it would be different if Russia went beyond the separatist regions. They're now bombing a major European capital, bringing vicious weapons of war like flamethrowers to civilian population centers, and plans of mass human rights abuses have been unearthed. This is far from a limited decapitation exercise and obviously has nothing to do with the separatist regions.

Does it change anything? Germany has changed its tune and is sending arms to Ukraine. Evicting some Russian enterprises from SWIFT is being openly discussed. There is now discussion of freezing Russian central Bank assets. Finland and Sweden talking of reconsidering NATO membership. Tens of thousands of NATO troops into Eastern Europe. This is no limited raid, this is evolving into Clausewitzian total war, albeit on a geographically limited basis. In total war are we going to do more against naked aggression? I know what we said a week ago. Things have changed.

Of course the stock market is flat since the thread was started. If Putin has gone mad and the world figures it out , I expect a much more serious downdraft than 3-6%.

Things have changed and I previously said I’m not sure how many resources we should devote to the situation where they invade outside the separatist states and I’m still not sure what the right answer is. It’s still not our circus. That opinion could change as things evolve but it’s where I’m at now. It seems as though previous Russia-friendly countries are also trying to create distance between their previous alliances.

[CordMcNally]

You picked a really weird metaphor. Generally if it is a not your monkeys, not your circus situation, then you would be opposed to spending any time/effort/money on it at all.

Also what FIREshrink said.

Pick whichever metaphor you want that says it isn’t our main problem. Could it become one? Of course. The US is the largest arms dealer in the world and likely had a hand in every conflict you’ve seen on the news for decades. The US gives resources to all kinds of things that have little to do with the average American on a day to day basis.

Just because it isn’t your monkeys or circus doesn’t mean people still don’t pay for admission for the show.

[xraygoggles]

I think my only edge is time horizon and ability to take on leverage due to a secure job. I just buy what I can hold for at least 20 years and don't sell. I am currently running around 2X leverage still with non-callable debt. The only thing I will change in the next 10 years will be to change my leverage ratio. I intend to limit myself to doing this once only in the next 10 years

Interesting - out of curiosity, what are you using to gain leverage? Letfs, margin, options, futures, loans?

I have a somewhat similar investing mindset, but I sprinkle some 2x Spx etf in various accounts to add some leverage to my large VTI position for the long term.

[AR]

Pick whichever metaphor you want that says it isn’t our main problem.

Not our "main problem" leaves every other spot on the list open. If that's what you were trying to say, you picked a really weird way to do it.

[CordMcNally]

Not our "main problem" leaves every other spot on the list open. If that's what you were trying to say, you picked a really weird way to do it.

Are you looking for me to rank every problem for the US? The US isn’t currently directly involved (troops on the ground, Air Force bombing, etc.) yet so it’s not something that’s currently at the top of my list. I feel your list is probably different than mine and that’s ok. I’m sorry I don’t have a metaphor that you approve.