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Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

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  • Yeah, this is when I wonder if people think about doing these down market Roth conversions (which I still can’t really distinguish from market timing). Is the market down enough for you to consider it? And with over 10 months left in the year, how much are you going to convert? Are you worried about overfilling your marginal tax bucket in December?

    I still have $58k to contribute to my solo 401k for 2021 (waiting to do a tax dry run first), so this is fortuitous for me.

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    • Originally posted by Antares View Post

      Chances are good that Xi has known for a long time that the US would not intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan takeover. But there would be serious economic consequences. China has much greater incentive to remain a participant in good standing in the global economy than does Russia. Putin has accepted becoming a pariah state in exchange for getting his way in Ukraine and satisfying his sense of outrage and humiliation at the hands of NATO, and his ongoing regret about the fall of the Soviet Union. Continued economic growth is an existential imperative for the CCP. I suspect they will bide their time on Taiwan, and continue to play the long game. I hope events do not prove me wrong.
      Both Putin and Xi are dictators. They want power. For life.

      As long as their economy is going well and their citizens adulate them, they will act rationally. But if things start to go wrong in their country and their economy stalls, they want diversion. Show their citizens how strong they are and whip up nationalistic pride. Putin felt the time has come to whip up the jingoism and he has created a diversion with this mini-invasion. His stock will go up within his country. He gives a rat's behind what other world leaders think of him. Many countries still need his petroleum and grains. Russia has survived Hitler's attack on Petersburg. They will survive any sanctions. They are stoic people.

      Xi has the economy going for him. As long as his people accept him, he will not invade Taiwan. But should he lose the faith of his people, he will do the same as Putin and what better to whip up nationalistic feeling than his speech of "bringing back part of our former country into our fold".

      USA is not the superpower it once was. China is a fast rising superpower. Russia is a waning one. The reality is that US cannot win a war in Taiwan against China. Our casualties will be enormous. China is not Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan. I am not sure our people want that kind of war.

      The other thing that people don't talk much is that no superpower likes the other superpower on their doorstep. Russia does not like to crowded and surrounded by USA using the NATO proxies. China will also not tolerate it in SE Asia. USA would not like Mexico or Cuba to become a Russian or China protectorate. Soon we may have to accept our limitations and learn to live within our sphere of influence.




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      • Originally posted by Lithium View Post
        Yeah, this is when I wonder if people think about doing these down market Roth conversions (which I still can’t really distinguish from market timing). Is the market down enough for you to consider it? And with over 10 months left in the year, how much are you going to convert? Are you worried about overfilling your marginal tax bucket in December?

        I still have $58k to contribute to my solo 401k for 2021 (waiting to do a tax dry run first), so this is fortuitous for me.
        I have a recent real story around this. I converted $10k within my 401k from tax-deferred to Roth 401k as my plan allows this. I did this on January 27. As this is always done at market close, if you look at the S&P since 1/1 until the past week, it looked like the market close bottom was January 27. So I was looking very "smart"/lucky for converting at the "bottom." Then this past week happened. D'oh! So now the question is do I convert more? And if I do, how much more considering I'm not 100% sure what income will be for the year and as we're normally near the top of the 24% bracket, I really don't want these conversions to push us into the 32% bracket because converting at that rate isn't a winning strategy. For now I'm holding firm.

        I had been planning to take my annual bonus and put it towards the mortgage but if the market is like this in the next week when I get paid, I'm probably instead going to finally open a taxable account and put it 50% VTSAX and 50% VTIAX

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        • Originally posted by JBME View Post

          I have a recent real story around this. I converted $10k within my 401k from tax-deferred to Roth 401k as my plan allows this. I did this on January 27. As this is always done at market close, if you look at the S&P since 1/1 until the past week, it looked like the market close bottom was January 27. So I was looking very "smart"/lucky for converting at the "bottom." Then this past week happened. D'oh! So now the question is do I convert more? And if I do, how much more considering I'm not 100% sure what income will be for the year and as we're normally near the top of the 24% bracket, I really don't want these conversions to push us into the 32% bracket because converting at that rate isn't a winning strategy. For now I'm holding firm.

          I had been planning to take my annual bonus and put it towards the mortgage but if the market is like this in the next week when I get paid, I'm probably instead going to finally open a taxable account and put it 50% VTSAX and 50% VTIAX
          I have 95% of my tax documents in for the year also, and right now my taxable income is within $1000 of the 32% bracket. My crystal ball is cloudy with the stock market, but as complicated as the tax code is, I’d rather bank on guaranteed tax efficiency than hoping for an enhanced return by buying a dip.

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          • Originally posted by Kamban View Post

            Please roll those eyes more :-)

            I talked about WWIII if China attacked Taiwan and we defended it and by chance nuclear weapons were to be used since we cannot win a conventional warfare with China in their backyard. I never said that Russia invading Ukraine would trigger a WWIII.
            Taiwan - we have much more at stake there than Ukraine. S Korea, Japan, and other Asian allies will all pitch in to make an attack on Taiwan incomprehensibly expensive for China. No we will not permanently deploy the Pacific Fleet in the Straits of Taiwan but we can and hopefully will contribute to a powerful show of military and economic force on and around the island to deter Chinese aggression.

            ​​​​​

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            • Originally posted by Dont_know_mind View Post
              Impressive volatility.
              Russian stocks (RTS, MOEX) down 40% at one point today.
              Imagine someone holding a 3x Russia stock market etf today - literally imploded. I wonder if they shut it down immediately after it crosses 33.333% down, or if it's the end of day price before liquidating.

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              • Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post

                Imagine someone holding a 3x Russia stock market etf today - literally imploded. I wonder if they shut it down immediately after it crosses 33.333% down, or if it's the end of day price before liquidating.
                I was just opening this thread to see if anybody was mentioning investing in Russia at this point. It might be a long (looong) time for things to go back up? For my own market timing, I recently sold off my Turkey ETF and now I feel flush.

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                • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                  I like for things to be black and white but this is nowhere near that. It seems like Donetsk and Luhansk are self-proclaimed breakaway states. How many resources should we devote to this when the people that live in these regions are seemingly fine with this? This is a 'not my circus, not my monkeys' situation. Now, if Russia were to truly invade non-separatists areas then we'd have a different situation but I also don't know how many resources we should devote to that situation, either.
                  I disagree, things are pretty black & white. And it is your circus, what is happening right now is right on the (western) flank of NATO. Japan, South Korea and Austrialia are (formally, though not in the same exact letter of the law) the eastern flank. Not to pick on the original poster, but I think similar thoughts are shared by many on this (US-centric) forum.

                  It is very hard to educate those born in the US about this, and hard to grapple with analogies. No Ukraine is not my own country, but it is close. It is as if, in an alternative timeline US never purchased Alaska from Russia and it was soviet. Then soviet union set up a puppet republic in the Yukon territories and was now invading Canada. Preposterous? Unimaginable? Yes, that is why it is so hard for native-born Americans to image, separated as they are by two giant oceans from any threat. The closest anything similar came to us was the Cuban Missile crisis.

                  People, please, please donate to refugee aid, whichever organization you choose to use (again, I am supporting LIRS among others); talk about how this invasion helps your bottom line and long-term horizon for stock investments, while true is just a bad look in face of human tragedy, even on an anonymous internet forum.
                  Last edited by Marko-ER; 02-24-2022, 11:56 AM.

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                  • Originally posted by Tangler View Post
                    The correction is expected and insignificant.

                    The fact that our country and western world was out played by Russia and the fact that China is watching; those are the concerns.

                    The market is gonna market.

                    Market is overdue for a correction. Not a major concern.

                    China watching Afghanistan debacle and our response now is a major concern.
                    Now *this* is the correct interpretation of current events.

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                    • The market…is a weird thing.

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                      • Great example of markets being unpredictable... sell the rumor, buy the news.

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                        • Not really - Vix is still around 30, which is very high actually. So having big up and down days is normal, and expected.

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                          • Originally posted by Marko-ER View Post

                            I disagree, things are pretty black & white. And it is your circus, what is happening right now is right on the (western) flank of NATO. Japan, South Korea and Austrialia are (formally, though not in the same exact letter of the law) the eastern flank. Not to pick on the original poster, but I think similar thoughts are shared by many on this (US-centric) forum.

                            It is very hard to educate those born in the US about this, and hard to grapple with analogies. No Ukraine is not my own country, but it is close. It is as if, in an alternative timeline US never purchased Alaska from Russia and it was soviet. Then soviet union set up a puppet republic in the Yukon territories and was now invading Canada. Preposterous? Unimaginable? Yes, that is why it is so hard for native-born Americans to image, separated as they are by two giant oceans from any threat. The closest anything similar came to us was the Cuban Missile crisis.

                            People, please, please donate to refugee aid, whichever organization you choose to use (again, I am supporting LIRS among others); talk about how this invasion helps your bottom line and long-term horizon for stock investments, while true is just a bad look in face of human tragedy, even on an anonymous internet forum.
                            Yeah Bismarck said Americans are very lucky they are surrounded by fish and weak neighbors

                            but at the same time let’s not start ww3 just because Russia invaded Ukraine, remember Russia is expansionist today as it has lost in 30 yrs what took 300 yrs to achieve
                            its like if USA suddenly contracts to pre Mexican war era or Louisiana purchase let’s see how hawkish we would be to our neighbors
                            But look at ussr post ww2 for all its flaws was not expansionist but a status quo power

                            My heart goes out to Ukrainians and I fully understand their troubled history including the oft forgotten famine of 30s which gets NO PRESS in western world but this is not an excuse to inflame the situation further in Eastern Europe

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                            • I thought Biden was supposed to be the senile one.

                              Someone tell Putin it's 2022 and not 1982.

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                              • Originally posted by zlandar View Post
                                I thought Biden was supposed to be the senile one.

                                Someone tell Putin it's 2022 and not 1982.
                                True, but human nature has not changed since 1982, or 1902, or even 0002. Our technologies and societies have improved, but not our genetics or natural tendencies.


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