Ukraine War... How much will S&P drop this week?

[Max Power]

Market doesn't like war... never has. This might be the most predictable dip since COVID started...

I would say probably down 3-6% by week's end. The bottom will depend on the headlines.

And yeah, I did put my money where my prediction is... sold basically everything that isn't locked out on a covered call (so roughly half of my stocks/indexes sold and over 60% of my overall portfolio to cash now).

[Post title edited for clarity.]

[Sampter]

You sold taxable stocks, not just pretax?

[Turf Doc]

Market doesn't like war... never has. This might be the most predictable dip since COVID started...

I would say probably down 3-6% by week's end. The bottom will depend on the headlines.

And yeah, I did put my money where my prediction is... sold basically everything that isn't locked out on a covered call (so roughly half of my stocks/indexes sold and over 60% of my overall portfolio to cash now).

when do you get back in?

[Craigslist]

If I do what you do OP I’ll realize at least 10k in losses I dunno if I wanna do that

[MPMD]

mod hat on: title of this one isn't awesome, let's keep this focused on a reasonable discussion of the potential market effects of global events and not let it veer much of that mmmkay?

[Random1]

Global events if they materialize will probably negatively affect the market at least temporarily. I will probably do the same, but buying oil and other commodity futures could be profitable. Then again , I may just sell everything and buy bitcoin and Tesla

[Tim]

"I would say probably down 3-6% by week's end. The bottom will depend on the headlines."
The problem is predicting what other people will do. Approaching 2% with 30 minutes to go. At what point do you short the market? Any change in the 3.6%?
If you wait until 5%, you might have missed the downside. Be bold, go big or sit on the hand you have.

My bad, now it is 1/2%. Hope my short suggestion trade was ignored.

[HikingDO]

I full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. If the market drops this week it’ll be unrelated.

[Dusn]

Why should the market care?

[Tangler]

Point 1: Impossible to predict = time market

Point 2: Taking $ out of taxable now (after a drop of 5-10% already this month) is not intelligent for a few reasons:
1. Taxes on LTCG & STCG for high doc tax bracket
2. Selling after the5–10% drop locks in losses
3. Timing & predictions (see above) can be flawed

My plan is to stay boring. I will “react” to changes as follows:

1. mostly stay the course. Ignore noise. no drastic changes. AA roughly constant. time in beats timing.

2. No panic selling

3. Buy slowly in taxable with new income & slowly convert some cash / bond index fund $ to stocks in IRAs (slowly gradually) (dry powder IRA deployment opportunities, if they they happen)

4. live off new income + cash

5. Keep poor people who live in that region in my thoughts & prayers

[childay]

Up 5-10 percent

[xraygoggles]

Market doesn't like war... never has. This might be the most predictable dip since COVID started...

I would say probably down 3-6% by week's end. The bottom will depend on the headlines.

And yeah, I did put my money where my prediction is... sold basically everything that isn't locked out on a covered call (so roughly half of my stocks/indexes sold and over 60% of my overall portfolio to cash now).

While it's refreshing for someone to put their money where their mouth is, if you really think this will be a large dip, why not buy back CC at a loss and sell the underlying stocks?

[Tangler]

Why should the market care?

No one’s plan should be based on what/when/ how/why of the short term market madness.

Market is gonna market.

My bet is as follows: 15-20 years from now it will be higher.

My stocks are for the long run.

[nephron]

I googled it, and the few times there have been war, the markets usually go down at first but then end upwards. The numbers of actual wars are probably small enough that past performance doesn't predict future war performance though. I worry about higher energy prices causing increased inflationary pressures while the economy is declining (stagflation). I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen when the fed pulls back all the things they have doing because it has never been done before. The being said, I don't believe in timing the market. I think that there is enough data that says time in the market beats timing the market so I wouldn't recommend anyone change their asset allocation based upon the news.

[Tangler]

I like the video btw.