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Help me time the market

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  • #16
    If you don’t want to lump sum , you DCA. I have to invest 1/4 of your amount , I am investing in VTI , it is set to invest 3-5 K for every 2 point drop .
    If market bounces , I will have it set up for investment in next 6-7 months
    it is automatic . I don’t have to think about it.
    Do what makes you sleep better .
    Last edited by uksho; 01-27-2022, 07:42 PM.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by uksho View Post
      it is automatic . I don’t have to think about it..
      OP, this is ESSENTIAL if you're someone who's going to get upset during a market decline (and what you've seen so far hardly even qualifies as one). At some point (knock on wood) your account will grow into the 7-figure stage, and a market drop on a large account can cause the value to drop by several hundred thousand dollars. You HAVE to be able to sit tight when that happens! And one of the best ways to do that is to set things up so that you simply don't have any reason to actually log into your account and look at it when you know the market is down.

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      • #18
        .
        Last edited by Eyemd356; 01-28-2022, 02:55 AM. Reason: I was being a little bit of a jerk

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        • #19
          Originally posted by artemis View Post

          OP, this is ESSENTIAL if you're someone who's going to get upset during a market decline (and what you've seen so far hardly even qualifies as one). At some point (knock on wood) your account will grow into the 7-figure stage, and a market drop on a large account can cause the value to drop by several hundred thousand dollars. You HAVE to be able to sit tight when that happens! And one of the best ways to do that is to set things up so that you simply don't have any reason to actually log into your account and look at it when you know the market is down.
          My investments are all set on autopilot at baseline. My Backdoor Roth happens the first week of the new year, my max 401k employee contribution comes out of my first paycheck and my employers max contribution all comes in the first 4 months of the year. Quarterly bonus money goes into the market or real estate funds based on where my ideal allocation dictates as soon as they hit my account. The only difference right now is that I’m getting a large lump sum after surrendering my VUL.

          Guess I’m a little gun shy. Between the time I submitted my VUL surrender paperwork and when it was processed I took a 20k loss I can’t harvest. Once this money is deployed (wherever/whenever) I plan to go back to being on autopilot and following my plan and ignoring the markets. I’m just overthinking it because it’s a larger lump sum than I’m used to deploying. I should just suck it up and dump it in. Hold my beer.

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          • #20
            stocks are on sale, and they usually go on sale via correction just once a year. So you should buy now. today

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            • #21
              I feel this, Bryan. I'm the working spouse of a current MS2. My industry is relatively volatile but high compensation, so I've long had ~6 mos 'normal' spending saved up in a CD ladder. We wanted to increase that number after getting married and her coming in under-budget on the diamonds, so started 2022 with ~40k in cash in a taxable account after CD ladder and bond funds (total ~30k).

              I feel similarly that investing everything at once right now gives me the 'bad idea' vibes, but decided to semi-DCA it monthly over the first half of this year. If things keep dropping, I get them on sale later on and can TLH with these early lots for 2022, which is shaping up to be a better year for me.

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              • #22
                Do a regret minimalization self-awareness.
                Will you suffer more from - a lightening market runup that leaves you permanently behind? or - a short-term downdraft?

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by BryanMD View Post
                  Further your metaphor, market timing may be Percocet for low back pain, but pouring 20% of your net worth into this market might be like giving Tylenol for cauda equina. It certainly won’t work and is stupid to even try.
                  This analogy is horrendous. Unless you think that the cauda equina patient is going to be stronger and walking better than he is now in 2035. Because that's how the market is likely to be.

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                  • #24
                    I think you are probably right.

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                    • #25
                      Put half in now and then try your hand at market-timing the rest over a defined period of time like 6 months. That might help you feel better about it and might be a fun exercise. Certainly won’t ruin your retirement lifestyle.

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                      • #26
                        OP, you could invest 1/2 now and set up auto invest for the rest. Maybe over the next 6 months make a set contribution every Friday. Just do it automatically so you don’t have to think about it or look at your account.

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                        • #27
                          Staying in cash IS A DECISION. BATNA. You are arguing with yourself. No choice is actually a choice. Each asset class has risk. Cash is certainly not zero, but historically is a permanent loss.
                          Equities
                          Bonds
                          Cash

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                          • #28
                            I bought some ibonds yesterday but did not have time to mess around with my mutual funds too balance out my asset allocation. So I did that today and rebalance a lot of my bonds into equities this morning watching the market soar up all day long and steal 2% from me. So I guarantee you the market is going to drop on monday. And if it does so you should just invest all that money you have sitting there. And if it does not you should still just invest all that money you have sitting there because nobody knows nothing.

                            If you have not already done so read JL Collins stock series. It is a good way to get pumped about investing in equities.
                            https://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/

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                            • #29
                              If you are that uncomfortable then maybe it is time to revisit your asset allocation. Perhaps you should set it to increase bonds or decrease international. Holding your noise and sticking to the plan pays off. At least it did for us through 2009 and 2020.

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