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what's the damage 1-22-22?

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  • Larry Ragman
    replied
    Originally posted by uksho View Post
    Lessons for me( will try to remember)

    no one can predict the market . Fortunately, I always remember not to sell, sad part is didn’t buy as much as I would have wanted too

    the money is on course to be Invested , DCA.
    Empirically this is all the plan anyone needs. It can be embellished. Trade a little for fun. 5% or whatever. OK. Want an investment property or two as a hedge. Sure. But DCA into a reasonable AA of low cost index funds is all it takes.

    Leave a comment:


  • uksho
    replied
    Lessons for me( will try to remember)

    no one can predict the market . Fortunately, I always remember not to sell, sad part is didn’t buy as much as I would have wanted too

    the money is on course to be Invested , DCA.

    Leave a comment:


  • xraygoggles
    replied
    & just like that, the 10% dip in Spy from last month is now cut in half.

    Leave a comment:


  • Max Power
    replied
    Good 10% gain from GOOG today... and way easier to sell and buy options on it now too.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lithium
    replied
    Originally posted by Tangler View Post

    You are a smart guy. You obviously know this is not the long term result.

    Only a real loss if you sell.

    Which begs the question: why look at net worth monthly?

    This little drop was not a loss for people like you.

    Frankly it is an opportunity to:
    1. buy low, 2. TLH, 3. Roth conversions.

    Sadly it might already be over.
    I was just being melodramatic. I actually never used to chart net worth at all.
    It’s hard to do Roth conversions this early in the year, when taxable income is so hard to predict.
    Did a little TLH earlier this month.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tangler
    replied
    Originally posted by Lithium View Post
    I just updated my monthly net worth, which is an experiment I’m beginning for the first time in 2022. Down about $92k since New Year’s Day .
    You are a smart guy. You obviously know this is not the long term result.

    Only a real loss if you sell.

    Which begs the question: why look at net worth monthly?

    This little drop was not a loss for people like you.

    Frankly it is an opportunity to:
    1. buy low, 2. TLH, 3. Roth conversions.

    Sadly it might already be over.

    Leave a comment:


  • Lordosis
    replied
    Originally posted by Lithium View Post
    I just updated my monthly net worth, which is an experiment I’m beginning for the first time in 2022. Down about $92k since New Year’s Day .
    on the bright side being down that much shows that you started with a lot!

    Or were invested poorly :/

    Leave a comment:


  • Lithium
    replied
    I just updated my monthly net worth, which is an experiment I’m beginning for the first time in 2022. Down about $92k since New Year’s Day .

    Leave a comment:


  • xraygoggles
    replied
    Originally posted by Max Power View Post
    It takes guts, but sometimes you have to dump large stock positions (which you like) because you know the overall market condition means you can get them back cheaper in a week or a month. This is exactly what the funds do: sell to create the price dive, buy to bring it up. It is obviously scarier as an individual since people don't follow you in or out of stocks. If you can't get the one company you want back (miss the rally), oh well, something else that you also like will be down as well. You will get a discount either way. It's just abundance mentality.

    There are also plenty of inverse 2x and 3x funds also. I don't typically use those, but they are ok for day here or there (bad prior week and more neg news over the weekend). When I was younger and ETF were in infancy (dot com crash), I'd hold those for days or even weeks... not wise, ERs eat you up. They are best used for just a morning or a day max.

    "Commerce is a game of skill, which every man can not play [index buy and hold], which few men can play well [active]."
    No to sidetrack this thread, but you actually can hold 2x index etfs and will have positive EV in the long run, including crashes, but only if you stick to a strict DCA plan monthly or whatever. 3x will not work because one crash and you're toast basically.

    Optimally, 1.7x leverage has been shown historically to be the "essential frontier" of LETFs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jaqen Haghar MD
    replied
    Originally posted by Nysoz View Post

    Nope, bet was on the upside. I was betting on them beating estimates on revenue and earnings which they did, but not by enough in this tough macro environment. I did sell longer term covered calls to take advantage of the high IV and get a pretty good amount of cash from that.

    So I'll just have to unwind the trades, reset my expectations in this market, and continue on! It's frustrating but it's just numbers on a screen. I positioned myself to lose up to 50% and still be ok. Not down by that much yet, so no worries.
    I like to watch the stocks now, like a football game I don’t have a bet on. I remembered you were playing Tesla earnings. Reminded me of years ago when I did the same…. Earnings beat, but stock drops anyways.. ************************. I do better now with more passive stuff. And I didn’t enjoy the stress, especially during the subprime crash years. I still wonder what it will be like when we see a real 50%+ crash again. A washout that lasts 2 years and takes 6 years or so to recover the highs. Maybe it won’t happen again in our lifetime. When you’re in a 3x inverse index fund, and a dead cat bounce wipes the floor with you, then it resumes falling once you are forced out. The huge up bounces, in down markets, test people’s soothsaying ability in real time. It’s not easy.

    Leave a comment:


  • Max Power
    replied
    Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post
    ...But in choppy and falling markets, even the hamsters and dart throwing monkeys who did so well, start to have trouble getting it right.

    I used to do a lot of trading 15 years ago or so. I’m glad to be out of it for a long time now. It’s not for me anymore. But to each, their own.
    It takes guts, but sometimes you have to dump large stock positions (which you like) because you know the overall market condition means you can get them back cheaper in a week or a month. This is exactly what the funds do: sell to create the price dive, buy to bring it up. It is obviously scarier as an individual since people don't follow you in or out of stocks. If you can't get the one company you want back (miss the rally), oh well, something else that you also like will be down as well. You will get a discount either way. It's just abundance mentality.

    There are also plenty of inverse 2x and 3x funds also. I don't typically use those, but they are ok for day here or there (bad prior week and more neg news over the weekend). When I was younger and ETF were in infancy (dot com crash), I'd hold those for days or even weeks... not wise, ERs eat you up. They are best used for just a morning or a day max.

    "Commerce is a game of skill, which every man can not play [index buy and hold], which few men can play well [active]."

    Leave a comment:


  • Max Power
    replied
    Originally posted by bovie View Post
    I think there is a difference between internally recognizing that an extended stock market depression may be good for younger investors (such as myself) in the long term, and proactively cheering for it like it's a football game.

    Yes, of course, it's part of the market and it will always cycle. But there is real money attached, especially for the older and wiser among us, with real effects.

    Poor form.
    I would not sweat it. The guy is quite simple.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nysoz
    replied
    Originally posted by Jaqen Haghar MD View Post

    Kudos for having the nads to announce your call in advance. Hope your bet was on the short side.
    Earnings trades are tough, because you aren’t betting on how the earnings will be… you’re betting on what the crowd reaction will be to numbers and announcements. You’re betting on something unexpected happening.

    It’s like being a judge at a beauty contest, but not picking the one you think is most beautiful, but the one you think everyone else will think is the most beautiful.

    Trading is very hard. When markets are going up, you start to think that you know what you are doing, because no matter what you do, everything goes up. But in choppy and falling markets, even the hamsters and dart throwing monkeys who did so well, start to have trouble getting it right.

    I used to do a lot of trading 15 years ago or so. I’m glad to be out of it for a long time now. It’s not for me anymore. But to each, their own.
    Nope, bet was on the upside. I was betting on them beating estimates on revenue and earnings which they did, but not by enough in this tough macro environment. I did sell longer term covered calls to take advantage of the high IV and get a pretty good amount of cash from that.

    So I'll just have to unwind the trades, reset my expectations in this market, and continue on! It's frustrating but it's just numbers on a screen. I positioned myself to lose up to 50% and still be ok. Not down by that much yet, so no worries.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jaqen Haghar MD
    replied
    Originally posted by Nysoz View Post
    My overall portfolio is down around 19%. I have increased my cash balance with sold options by 1/5 of that.

    It's overall down more than it should because I've made a leveraged bet for TSLA earnings this week. We'll see what happens!
    Kudos for having the nads to announce your call in advance. Hope your bet was on the short side.
    Earnings trades are tough, because you aren’t betting on how the earnings will be… you’re betting on what the crowd reaction will be to numbers and announcements. You’re betting on something unexpected happening.

    It’s like being a judge at a beauty contest, but not picking the one you think is most beautiful, but the one you think everyone else will think is the most beautiful.

    Trading is very hard. When markets are going up, you start to think that you know what you are doing, because no matter what you do, everything goes up. But in choppy and falling markets, even the hamsters and dart throwing monkeys who did so well, start to have trouble getting it right.

    I used to do a lot of trading 15 years ago or so. I’m glad to be out of it for a long time now. It’s not for me anymore. But to each, their own.
    Last edited by Jaqen Haghar MD; 01-27-2022, 09:36 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Max Power
    Guidance is needed.. Definitely agree this would be helpful. The question is that actually practical.
    Behind the scenes, the old traditional evidence based guidance is not available. A lot of ambiguity and modeling and different discussions. A decision is made and supported unanimously. Only until another issue comes up or “possibly” the political influences change. They don’t have the traditional data to release, but it is “guidance” based on data that had ambiguous interpretations. That is not necessarily bad, but it is incomplete. You might never get static guidance.

    Monoclonals:: https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/967210
    It is based on models and judgement and a political firestorm.
    Variants:
    BA.2
    A new term, sub variants.
    https://www.al.com/news/2022/01/new-...outputType=amp

    We don’t even have vaccines available that are designed for Omicron!. People are looking for clarity where it may not be possible,
    Fired your staff for not being vaccinated with a vaccine that is no longer approved. That is possible. Seemed like a good idea at the time, and maybe it was! You can make certainty out of rapidly changing situations.
    Not going to happen. It would be nice.

    Leave a comment:

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