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what's the damage 1-22-22?

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  • Originally posted by Nysoz View Post

    Nope, bet was on the upside. I was betting on them beating estimates on revenue and earnings which they did, but not by enough in this tough macro environment. I did sell longer term covered calls to take advantage of the high IV and get a pretty good amount of cash from that.

    So I'll just have to unwind the trades, reset my expectations in this market, and continue on! It's frustrating but it's just numbers on a screen. I positioned myself to lose up to 50% and still be ok. Not down by that much yet, so no worries.
    I like to watch the stocks now, like a football game I don’t have a bet on. I remembered you were playing Tesla earnings. Reminded me of years ago when I did the same…. Earnings beat, but stock drops anyways.. ************************. I do better now with more passive stuff. And I didn’t enjoy the stress, especially during the subprime crash years. I still wonder what it will be like when we see a real 50%+ crash again. A washout that lasts 2 years and takes 6 years or so to recover the highs. Maybe it won’t happen again in our lifetime. When you’re in a 3x inverse index fund, and a dead cat bounce wipes the floor with you, then it resumes falling once you are forced out. The huge up bounces, in down markets, test people’s soothsaying ability in real time. It’s not easy.

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    • Originally posted by Max Power View Post
      It takes guts, but sometimes you have to dump large stock positions (which you like) because you know the overall market condition means you can get them back cheaper in a week or a month. This is exactly what the funds do: sell to create the price dive, buy to bring it up. It is obviously scarier as an individual since people don't follow you in or out of stocks. If you can't get the one company you want back (miss the rally), oh well, something else that you also like will be down as well. You will get a discount either way. It's just abundance mentality.

      There are also plenty of inverse 2x and 3x funds also. I don't typically use those, but they are ok for day here or there (bad prior week and more neg news over the weekend). When I was younger and ETF were in infancy (dot com crash), I'd hold those for days or even weeks... not wise, ERs eat you up. They are best used for just a morning or a day max.

      "Commerce is a game of skill, which every man can not play [index buy and hold], which few men can play well [active]."
      No to sidetrack this thread, but you actually can hold 2x index etfs and will have positive EV in the long run, including crashes, but only if you stick to a strict DCA plan monthly or whatever. 3x will not work because one crash and you're toast basically.

      Optimally, 1.7x leverage has been shown historically to be the "essential frontier" of LETFs.

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      • I just updated my monthly net worth, which is an experiment I’m beginning for the first time in 2022. Down about $92k since New Year’s Day .

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        • Originally posted by Lithium View Post
          I just updated my monthly net worth, which is an experiment I’m beginning for the first time in 2022. Down about $92k since New Year’s Day .
          on the bright side being down that much shows that you started with a lot!

          Or were invested poorly :/

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          • Originally posted by Lithium View Post
            I just updated my monthly net worth, which is an experiment I’m beginning for the first time in 2022. Down about $92k since New Year’s Day .
            You are a smart guy. You obviously know this is not the long term result.

            Only a real loss if you sell.

            Which begs the question: why look at net worth monthly?

            This little drop was not a loss for people like you.

            Frankly it is an opportunity to:
            1. buy low, 2. TLH, 3. Roth conversions.

            Sadly it might already be over.

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            • Originally posted by Tangler View Post

              You are a smart guy. You obviously know this is not the long term result.

              Only a real loss if you sell.

              Which begs the question: why look at net worth monthly?

              This little drop was not a loss for people like you.

              Frankly it is an opportunity to:
              1. buy low, 2. TLH, 3. Roth conversions.

              Sadly it might already be over.
              I was just being melodramatic. I actually never used to chart net worth at all.
              It’s hard to do Roth conversions this early in the year, when taxable income is so hard to predict.
              Did a little TLH earlier this month.

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              • Good 10% gain from GOOG today... and way easier to sell and buy options on it now too.

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                • & just like that, the 10% dip in Spy from last month is now cut in half.

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                  • Lessons for me( will try to remember)

                    no one can predict the market . Fortunately, I always remember not to sell, sad part is didn’t buy as much as I would have wanted too

                    the money is on course to be Invested , DCA.

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                    • Originally posted by uksho View Post
                      Lessons for me( will try to remember)

                      no one can predict the market . Fortunately, I always remember not to sell, sad part is didn’t buy as much as I would have wanted too

                      the money is on course to be Invested , DCA.
                      Empirically this is all the plan anyone needs. It can be embellished. Trade a little for fun. 5% or whatever. OK. Want an investment property or two as a hedge. Sure. But DCA into a reasonable AA of low cost index funds is all it takes.

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