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Any room on this forum for a thread on charts and technical analysis

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  • Vae Victis
    replied
    Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post
    I think this thread has been very effective at demonstrating why trading and why using the vast majority of what people call technical analysis is so foolhardy. I can teach hundreds of thousands of people an effective investing technique using a single page of paper. But someone trading on TA may not be able to teach an effective investing technique to anyone at all even with an unlimited amount of time. Investing based on feelings and trying to imagine patterns in the data is a great way to underperform long-term, especially after costs, taxes and the value of one's time. I'm not surprised you are having trouble finding a lot of people doing it when you look for them in a group of relatively sensible investors.
    Cool.

    Leave a comment:


  • The White Coat Investor
    replied
    I think this thread has been very effective at demonstrating why trading and why using the vast majority of what people call technical analysis is so foolhardy. I can teach hundreds of thousands of people an effective investing technique using a single page of paper. But someone trading on TA may not be able to teach an effective investing technique to anyone at all even with an unlimited amount of time. Investing based on feelings and trying to imagine patterns in the data is a great way to underperform long-term, especially after costs, taxes and the value of one's time. I'm not surprised you are having trouble finding a lot of people doing it when you look for them in a group of relatively sensible investors.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    Originally posted by Vae Victis View Post

    It was not my purpose to publish a trading diary; I understand that that is something that you and others are asking for, but I am not going to provide. My purpose was to discuss trade setups and strategies with other active traders. A few others have chimed in with their trading strategies, which is great, but they are few and far between.

    I think we can both agree that this thread is not serving our purposes. Feel free to close.
    There is room for discussion. What I haven’t seen is any specifics of your trading methods.
    What are the data points that you screen for?
    What combination is a “good setup “?
    Head and shoulders, moving averages (anything from 10 to 200). Posting a picture is beauty in the eyes of the beholder. Why was it so beautiful? Form, texture, composition, colors, style, fine details?
    The reasons why you made a trade, the stops and exit. Why did you go to all cash?
    Some use advance/Devine for market depth.
    If I look at a chart of SPX the time period is so critical to how I “feel”. 50 years or 5 years flips my feel. 5 years I am optimistic, 50 years I feel the bottom is going to dropout. Why is the chart attractive needs to be explained. That would be a discussion. Not a criticism, a suggestion only for meaningful exchange.
    Event , plus moving average, plus positive market breadth might trigger a buy. The absence of one of the indicators means stay in cash or a smaller sizing with a tighter stop. The reason is the stock might go against the total market or be sucked down . Technical trading is data driven. I don’t have a clue of your data points for a buy or sell or what is a good setup.

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  • Vae Victis
    replied
    Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post

    What does a chart mean without any sort of documented thread behind it showing it works? You might as well take a picture of your tea leaves and then say "bought Amazon today based on a support level suggested by these two overlapping leaves."

    It really doesn't matter what the chart looks like until you can show us that you are using it to profitably predict future returns.
    It was not my purpose to publish a trading diary; I understand that that is something that you and others are asking for, but I am not going to provide. My purpose was to discuss trade setups and strategies with other active traders. A few others have chimed in with their trading strategies, which is great, but they are few and far between.

    I think we can both agree that this thread is not serving our purposes. Feel free to close.

    Leave a comment:


  • The White Coat Investor
    replied
    Originally posted by Vae Victis View Post

    My purpose for starting this thread was to discuss chart setups and technical analysis with other docs, not to submit my trading account for audit. I haven't found like-minded docs in real life so I thought it worth a try. It never occurred to me that I would need to report position sizing, etc in order to make these posts interesting or useful. I have posted charts of the trades I have entered FWIW.

    At any rate, given the lack of activity in this thread, it seems that there isn't much interest anyway. I will stop posting to it.
    What does a chart mean without any sort of documented thread behind it showing it works? You might as well take a picture of your tea leaves and then say "bought Amazon today based on a support level suggested by these two overlapping leaves."

    It really doesn't matter what the chart looks like until you can show us that you are using it to profitably predict future returns.

    Leave a comment:


  • Vae Victis
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    Do you feel comfortable even giving a percentage of what this is compared to your total investments? Is this 5%, 15%, 50%, 75%, etc. of your total investments? Also, it would help if you gave how much you are buying, even if that is just a percentage of your taxable account.
    About 50% but that number is growing as my taxable account grows (and my others shrink during this correction).

    Leave a comment:


  • Vae Victis
    replied
    For posterity, I closed all of my open positions this morning at a small profit, so I am back to 100% cash in that account.

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  • CordMcNally
    replied
    Originally posted by Vae Victis View Post

    I am trading my full taxable account. For whatever reason, I don't feel comfortable giving more details other than to say that I am trading with a large enough amount of money as to meet just about anyone's definition of "skin in the game".
    Do you feel comfortable even giving a percentage of what this is compared to your total investments? Is this 5%, 15%, 50%, 75%, etc. of your total investments? Also, it would help if you gave how much you are buying, even if that is just a percentage of your taxable account.

    Leave a comment:


  • Vae Victis
    replied
    Originally posted by Sampter View Post
    I thought about buying Tesla yesterday, but I didn't. If I did and sold it now I would be up ~4%. I probably would have bought 20K, but I didn't buy any. If I did buy though, I would have made 800 before taxes.
    One of the biggest lessons I've learned thus far is not to get caught trying to catch falling knives. Sticking to only purchasing stocks that are above a rising 50 day average makes a world of difference. The potential gains of timing a bottom are intoxicating, and exhilirating if you get it right, but i found that the majority of the reason that I underperformed last year was trying to do exactly that. When I cut that out, i became much more profitable.

    Leave a comment:


  • Vae Victis
    replied
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
    I don't think you've mentioned what percentage of your portfolio you are doing this with. Like mentioned, it's a big yawn if you're doing it with a small percent. If you actually have some skin in the game then it's fun to follow along with to see some transparency in real time.
    I am trading my full taxable account. For whatever reason, I don't feel comfortable giving more details other than to say that I am trading with a large enough amount of money as to meet just about anyone's definition of "skin in the game".

    Leave a comment:


  • Vae Victis
    replied
    Originally posted by Hatton View Post
    Actually on my laptop you have 6 pages of responses. This is quite a lot. I think there is room for different views as long as the posts are honest.
    I have always been honest; had I wanted to be disingenuous, I probably should have started by saying that I crushed the SP500 last year rather than underperforming by 15% 😁

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  • Sampter
    replied
    I thought about buying Tesla yesterday, but I didn't. If I did and sold it now I would be up ~4%. I probably would have bought 20K, but I didn't buy any. If I did buy though, I would have made 800 before taxes.

    Leave a comment:


  • CordMcNally
    replied
    I don't think you've mentioned what percentage of your portfolio you are doing this with. Like mentioned, it's a big yawn if you're doing it with a small percent. If you actually have some skin in the game then it's fun to follow along with to see some transparency in real time.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hatton
    replied
    Actually on my laptop you have 6 pages of responses. This is quite a lot. I think there is room for different views as long as the posts are honest.

    Leave a comment:


  • ecloebl
    replied
    I have only had one experiece with market timing. In the late 1990's, I subscribed to a market timing newsletter.Just before the 2000 tech bubble burst, this newsletter opined that the ongoing possibility of market gains was far exceeded by a significant risk of large losses. At that point, I had been investing, mostly in no load mutual funds, for almost twenty years, and I accumulated more than I ever expected to have in financial assets. Based on the recommendation of that newsletter, I sold all of the equity mutual funds in my tax deferred accounts.The newletter accurately predicted the bottom in 2003, and I slowly began to re-accumulate equity index funds. That was the one experience I had with market timing. I am not advocating it, but it did work for me, and I am way ahead financially as a result. That newletter failed to predict any subsequent downturns, btw.

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