Any room on this forum for a thread on charts and technical analysis

[Vae Victis]

Starting my weekend review of charts and, I must say, I am not seeing anything remotely resembling a good long opportunity. I am, however, finding some very compelling short setups. I can post charts if anyone is interested, but will be looking build some starter short positions if we see a bounce early in the week.

[Hatton]

I have been wondering about your avatar. Hail Brennus. Sacker of Rome.

[Vae Victis]

I have been wondering about your avatar. Hail Brennus. Sacker of Rome.

You got it Love that story for some reason; the simple and honest brutality in the face of the whining Romans. "Woe to the vanquished". Love it.

[Vae Victis]

Wild day in the markets. I placed two trades at the end of the day, smaller than usual position size and will add on strength. Two financial stocks, both having broken above consolidation levels and now successfully re-tested today and bounced. Stop losses placed at the lows of the day.

[Vae Victis]

A few more purchases yesterday: $NEM (gold), $CDEV (oil), and $WSR (REIT).

[The White Coat Investor]

Starting my weekend review of charts and, I must say, I am not seeing anything remotely resembling a good long opportunity. I am, however, finding some very compelling short setups. I can post charts if anyone is interested, but will be looking build some starter short positions if we see a bounce early in the week.

I don't think anyone cares about updates like these. You're literally saying nothing that means anything. When people said "post in real time" so they can actually see how you're doing, they're talking dollar amounts and ticker symbols.

"Today I bought 200 shares of Acme stock at $100 a piece ($20,000 total). "

Then three days later:

"Today I sold those 200 shares of Acme at $103 a piece ($20,600). Given my marginal tax rate of 50%, I made $300 for my time and risk."

That way, people will actually believe your claims when you pick a 10 bagger and they can also hold you accountable for your losers:

"Hey what happened to that Acme you bought at $100 and never posted that you sold? It's now trading at $17."

Or maybe they see you're really only trading with a few thousand dollars and they decide none of this is really meaningful because you're just messing around.

But my point is the only interesting thing about watching you do this is full transparency, and so far you're not providing any meaningful transparency.

[Vae Victis]

I don't think anyone cares about updates like these. You're literally saying nothing that means anything. When people said "post in real time" so they can actually see how you're doing, they're talking dollar amounts and ticker symbols.

"Today I bought 200 shares of Acme stock at $100 a piece ($20,000 total). "

Then three days later:

"Today I sold those 200 shares of Acme at $103 a piece ($20,600). Given my marginal tax rate of 50%, I made $300 for my time and risk."

That way, people will actually believe your claims when you pick a 10 bagger and they can also hold you accountable for your losers:

"Hey what happened to that Acme you bought at $100 and never posted that you sold? It's now trading at $17."

Or maybe they see you're really only trading with a few thousand dollars and they decide none of this is really meaningful because you're just messing around.

But my point is the only interesting thing about watching you do this is full transparency, and so far you're not providing any meaningful transparency.

My purpose for starting this thread was to discuss chart setups and technical analysis with other docs, not to submit my trading account for audit. I haven't found like-minded docs in real life so I thought it worth a try. It never occurred to me that I would need to report position sizing, etc in order to make these posts interesting or useful. I have posted charts of the trades I have entered FWIW.

At any rate, given the lack of activity in this thread, it seems that there isn't much interest anyway. I will stop posting to it.

[ecloebl]

I have only had one experiece with market timing. In the late 1990's, I subscribed to a market timing newsletter.Just before the 2000 tech bubble burst, this newsletter opined that the ongoing possibility of market gains was far exceeded by a significant risk of large losses. At that point, I had been investing, mostly in no load mutual funds, for almost twenty years, and I accumulated more than I ever expected to have in financial assets. Based on the recommendation of that newsletter, I sold all of the equity mutual funds in my tax deferred accounts.The newletter accurately predicted the bottom in 2003, and I slowly began to re-accumulate equity index funds. That was the one experience I had with market timing. I am not advocating it, but it did work for me, and I am way ahead financially as a result. That newletter failed to predict any subsequent downturns, btw.

[Hatton]

Actually on my laptop you have 6 pages of responses. This is quite a lot. I think there is room for different views as long as the posts are honest.

[CordMcNally]

I don't think you've mentioned what percentage of your portfolio you are doing this with. Like mentioned, it's a big yawn if you're doing it with a small percent. If you actually have some skin in the game then it's fun to follow along with to see some transparency in real time.

[Sampter]

I thought about buying Tesla yesterday, but I didn't. If I did and sold it now I would be up ~4%. I probably would have bought 20K, but I didn't buy any. If I did buy though, I would have made 800 before taxes.

[Vae Victis]

Actually on my laptop you have 6 pages of responses. This is quite a lot. I think there is room for different views as long as the posts are honest.

I have always been honest; had I wanted to be disingenuous, I probably should have started by saying that I crushed the SP500 last year rather than underperforming by 15% 😁

[Vae Victis]

I don't think you've mentioned what percentage of your portfolio you are doing this with. Like mentioned, it's a big yawn if you're doing it with a small percent. If you actually have some skin in the game then it's fun to follow along with to see some transparency in real time.

I am trading my full taxable account. For whatever reason, I don't feel comfortable giving more details other than to say that I am trading with a large enough amount of money as to meet just about anyone's definition of "skin in the game".

[Vae Victis]

I thought about buying Tesla yesterday, but I didn't. If I did and sold it now I would be up ~4%. I probably would have bought 20K, but I didn't buy any. If I did buy though, I would have made 800 before taxes.

One of the biggest lessons I've learned thus far is not to get caught trying to catch falling knives. Sticking to only purchasing stocks that are above a rising 50 day average makes a world of difference. The potential gains of timing a bottom are intoxicating, and exhilirating if you get it right, but i found that the majority of the reason that I underperformed last year was trying to do exactly that. When I cut that out, i became much more profitable.

[CordMcNally]

I am trading my full taxable account. For whatever reason, I don't feel comfortable giving more details other than to say that I am trading with a large enough amount of money as to meet just about anyone's definition of "skin in the game".

Do you feel comfortable even giving a percentage of what this is compared to your total investments? Is this 5%, 15%, 50%, 75%, etc. of your total investments? Also, it would help if you gave how much you are buying, even if that is just a percentage of your taxable account.