Any room on this forum for a thread on charts and technical analysis

[Vae Victis]

It was more than that. One such person basically put themselves in the same class as Warren Buffett.

I am definitely not Warren Buffett. No trades to post; happy to be in cash today. A few on my watchlist held nicely just below breakout levels and I may have some buys to post later in the week.

Somebody asked earlier what account I am trading; answer is my taxable account. My 401k, Roths, and 529's are allocated in such a way to make even the most Bogle-ish amongst us proud.

[xraygoggles]

Somebody asked earlier what account I am trading; answer is my taxable account. My 401k, Roths, and 529's are allocated in such a way to make even the most Bogle-ish amongst us proud.

That's interesting - wouldn't it make more sense to trade in a portion of your retirement allocation? To avoid CG taxes? Or at least split it up between the two.

[GasFIRE]

I am definitely not Warren Buffett. No trades to post; happy to be in cash today. A few on my watchlist held nicely just below breakout levels and I may have some buys to post later in the week.

Somebody asked earlier what account I am trading; answer is my taxable account. My 401k, Roths, and 529's are allocated in such a way to make even the most Bogle-ish amongst us proud.

Why don’t you use your Roth account? From the type of channel trading you’re describing any winning trades are STCG at your marginal rate. I’d rather pay zero inside my Roth.

[Tim]

It was more than that. One such person basically put themselves in the same class as Warren Buffett.

More nimble than Warren. Leverage up, pay down debt, real estate, cars, reading the tea leaves and running a huge PP practice part-time. A legend in his own mind. I think humility was the best character trait. I just wish ...... I will let you fill in the blank.

[Vae Victis]

Why don’t you use your Roth account? From the type of channel trading you’re describing any winning trades are STCG at your marginal rate. I’d rather pay zero inside my Roth.

If my Roth was a sizeable enough account to make it worthwhile, I would definitely trade there. It's not, however, so I just set it and forget it.

[Nysoz]

But if you do well enough in there, it'll become sizeable sooner than later. Trading in your Roth will grow much faster than a taxable without the tax drag.

[Tim]

If my Roth was a sizeable enough account to make it worthwhile, I would definitely trade there. It's not, however, so I just set it and forget it.

But you are doing it. At least from your examples. Sandbox, back testing, just even live trading on paper. If you need wait for mo money to trade, that means you are not developing your trading system or approach. Trading skills and system take practice. Better to blowup with $6k than $600k. It is a lot of work done well.
Sometimes better to be lucky than skillful. If you wish to post your trades, rules or whatever, feel free. it is your work.

[Hatton]

In summary I think posting different strategies is fine. There are many roads to Dublin. I spent many years trying to do technical analysis and found that it did not work for me. After 2008 I had some large carry forward losses and realigned most of my taxable portfolio to indexes. I think it is fine to study charts especially if that keeps your interest in personal finance and investing going. I now pay more attention to asset allocation and Roth conversions.

[Random1]

Somebody asked earlier what account I am trading; answer is my taxable account. My 401k, Roths, and 529's are allocated in such a way to make even the most Bogle-ish amongst us proud.

If you truely believe this is the way to financial salvation , money is fungible , why would you not try to intentionally decrease taxes?

[GasFIRE]

Trading skills and system take practice. Better to blowup with $6k than $600k. It is a lot of work done well.

So true. I did learn a lot back when I traded individual stocks, both good and bad. Liquidity matters especially if you’re trying to make large trades. It can be difficult to execute 6-figure long trades with some small and even mid-cap stocks. Options and margin weren’t available in my RothIRA or 401k and I didn’t want the tax burden in a taxable account so I’ve progressed like Hatton to more of an ETF based portfolio. Approaching retirement, optimizing asset location such as Roth conversions and bonds in pre-tax have taken priority. The most important lesson I’ve learned over the years is compounding is your best friend.

[Tim]

So true. I did learn a lot back when I traded individual stocks, both good and bad. Liquidity matters especially if you’re trying to make large trades. It can be difficult to execute 6-figure long trades with some small and even mid-cap stocks. Options and margin weren’t available in my RothIRA or 401k and I didn’t want the tax burden in a taxable account so I’ve progressed like Hatton to more of an ETF based portfolio. Approaching retirement, optimizing asset location such as Roth conversions and bonds in pre-tax have taken priority. The most important lesson I’ve learned over the years is compounding is your best friend.

What concerns me is the rate of change has been ramping up since about 1990. So a thirty year span has continued the trend. It is hard to grasp any type of scenario that the next 30 years can continue the ever increasing trend. Infinity is impossible. All you need to do is look at a graph of SPX. Secular trends are "after the fact". The slope of the curve is not compounding, the rate has been accelerating. Something has to give. Where to store value long term is a tough question.

[Vae Victis]

Still nothing to post this week. Still happy to be in cash right now.

[Vae Victis]

No trades at all this week. I had been watching some very nice short setups but never pulled the trigger unfortunately, so I remain in cash. NASDAQ lost the 200 DMA earlier in the week and blew through pretty strong support today. Previous sell-offs like this have been eaten up in a few days since COVID, interested to see how this plays out next week.

[Brains428]

No trades at all this week. I had been watching some very nice short setups but never pulled the trigger unfortunately, so I remain in cash. NASDAQ lost the 200 DMA earlier in the week and blew through pretty strong support today. Previous sell-offs like this have been eaten up in a few days since COVID, interested to see how this plays out next week.

Market dynamics are quite different with reduction of quantitative easing and increased hawkishness by the Fed. Not to say that it won't have another bounce until QE is stopped and rate hikes begin, but the reaction function may be different.

Anyways. it's probably good to know how to play both sides of the trade. Or, at times like these, find ways to exploit skew and elevated vol.

[Vae Victis]

Market dynamics are quite different with reduction of quantitative easing and increased hawkishness by the Fed. Not to say that it won't have another bounce until QE is stopped and rate hikes begin, but the reaction function may be different.

Anyways. it's probably good to know how to play both sides of the trade. Or, at times like these, find ways to exploit skew and elevated vol.

Prior Fed tightening cycles have made it at least a few hikes before the wheels came off. If this week's action is the start of a bigger downward move, that doesn't bode well for this episode of QT at all.