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  • #61
    Originally posted by Turf Doc View Post

    Going from 1999 to 2021 and it was 5% real. Isnt that what many people use for their planning anyway? And who really invests once and is done?

    Starting to invest and maxing out the 401k limit in dec 1999 (10k) and adjusting for inflation until dec 2021 gets you a 10.546 annualized return. Who cares about 10 years?
    I responded to this statement: "If I put $1m in equities in 1999 it wouldn't have been worth less in 2009. That gives me piece of mind."
    Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View Post

      Interesting thoughts and it makes me question if there might be less risk in the market due to the govt meddling than I would have thought? I still can't believe that the stock market, economy, housing etc. didn't tank in 2020 or 2021. Is this going to be the way the government will keep things stable at least on paper going forward? With lesser issues it would be a smaller amount than the pandemic efforts so easier to justify in comparison and therefore why wouldn't they keep printing and handing out more money? In the interest of the economy of course.
      I think if there is a political backlash, they could let it fail a bit more next time. But who knows?
      Bonds are perhaps not as safe as they were 20 years ago if the backstopping continues.

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      • #63
        Originally posted by CM View Post

        Actually, it was worth less.

        The annualized, total (i.e., dividends reinvested), real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) S&P 500 return was -3.17% from December 1999 through December 2009: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

        The annualized return was -7.524% from March 2000 through March 2009 (the trough month). The total return was -50.538%. You lost half your wealth over a 9-year period.
        I remember in 2009 there was a really smart doc who was crestfallen by the stock market.

        He had put a lot in the market between 1999-2009 and he was talking to me in the hall of the OR and he said: " Tangler the stock market is a fools errand, I have given up on it. It has done nothing but disappoint me"

        I said, but sir, don't you think this could be a good time to buy? I mean, it has dropped so much? He just shook his head and walked away.

        I was a young attending. Piling money into my student loans (6%, when people used to pay such things off) and maxing out my 401k and learning about index funds.

        At the time only the young and the dumb did not feel frightened. It was probably the best time to buy in my adult lifetime.

        Now we are all over-confident. I keep waiting for a sustained drop. History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

        I will keep my high stock allocation and hold my nose and buy more if it drops. I expect it to happen but I have been wrong about this for the last several years.

        I predicted a sustained drop in 2016, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and now in 22 but there is a part of me that will be astonished if we don't have an increase in >5% for 2022.

        I am over-confident. I have been conditioned by recent history. Recency bias, over-confidence and a feeling that "this time is now different.....the gov will never let it happen again........"

        Does the gov have the ability to stop it? Will inflation force them to raise rates and will this trigger the badness?

        I will keep earning, buying, and trying to ignore the noise.
        Last edited by Tangler; 01-20-2022, 03:24 PM.

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        • #64
          I did a Roth conversion yesterday.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Hatton View Post
            I did a Roth conversion yesterday.
            I love it when you post you have made a Roth conversion - such an ideal time in your life. I think we are similar on that - except I haven’t had time to even glance at the market lately. My son told me a couple of days ago that it had dropped a lot and I had no idea and still haven’t bothered to check. We simply don’t ever talk about short-term market changes in our office (especially with my partner now out with COVID🥴) unless it’s to wonder if we should do Roth conversions.
            Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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            • #66
              Originally posted by jfoxcpacfp View Post

              I love it when you post you have made a Roth conversion - such an ideal time in your life. I think we are similar on that - except I haven’t had time to even glance at the market lately. My son told me a couple of days ago that it had dropped a lot and I had no idea and still haven’t bothered to check. We simply don’t ever talk about short-term market changes in our office (especially with my partner now out with COVID🥴) unless it’s to wonder if we should do Roth conversions.
              I saw a headline that the nasdaq was officially in correction territory last week so I did a conversion. It dropped more on Friday so I might do another one next week. I guess this a little bit of market timing. Sorry your partner has COVID.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Tangler View Post

                I remember in 2009 there was a really smart doc who was crestfallen by the stock market.

                He had put a lot in the market between 1999-2009 and he was talking to me in the hall of the OR and he said: " Tangler the stock market is a fools errand, I have given up on it. It has done nothing but disappoint me"

                I said, but sir, don't you think this could be a good time to buy? I mean, it has dropped so much? He just shook his head and walked away.

                I was a young attending. Piling money into my student loans (6%, when people used to pay such things off) and maxing out my 401k and learning about index funds.

                At the time only the young and the dumb did not feel frightened. It was probably the best time to buy in my adult lifetime.

                Now we are all over-confident. I keep waiting for a sustained drop. History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

                I will keep my high stock allocation and hold my nose and buy more if it drops. I expect it to happen but I have been wrong about this for the last several years.

                I predicted a sustained drop in 2016, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 and now in 22 but there is a part of me that will be astonished if we don't have an increase in >5% for 2022.

                I am over-confident. I have been conditioned by recent history. Recency bias, over-confidence and a feeling that "this time is now different.....the gov will never let it happen again........"

                Does the gov have the ability to stop it? Will inflation force them to raise rates and will this trigger the badness?

                I will keep earning, buying, and trying to ignore the noise.
                I agree with you . I am not planning to sell anything , just planning to buy more when it dips! Why wouldn’t you buy something on sale and you are planning to buy it anyway . No one knows where it would end in 2022, but I guess it will drop more next week .

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Hatton View Post

                  I saw a headline that the nasdaq was officially in correction territory last week so I did a conversion. It dropped more on Friday so I might do another one next week. I guess this a little bit of market timing. Sorry your partner has COVID.
                  Taking advantage of a situation in your favor is different from market timing. I 100% agree with what you are doing.
                  Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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                  • #69
                    I did a Roth conversion yesterday.
                    Me too!! this is exciting.

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