Inflation

[Lordosis]

Any specific number or just 'more'?

Their fair share!

[nephron]

Just more. My income varies year to year so it'd be great if they would come out with a bill that stated that the top tax rate starts at 10% above whatever I made that year. People looking to "game the system" could send me money.

[jacoavlu]

could be worse

a few days after apple halted sales in turkey due to the instability of the lira, they’ve resumed sales with a 25% higher price

https://9to5mac.com/2021/11/26/apple-sales-in-turkey-resume/amp/

[Tangler]

Yes, although I do think people who make more then me need to pay more in taxes.

I know you are joking and it is pretty funny but a lot of people in this country feel this way.

“pay your fair share”

“tax the rich”

“Pay More”……without defining more.

Convince the people who actually pay nothing that the people who pay the whole bill are somehow bad people who are robbing the poor.

This is the kind of nonsensical selfish thinking that bewilders me.


The Top 50% pays 97% of federal income taxes.

The top 25% pays 87% of federal income taxes.

The top 10% pay 71% of federal income taxes.

Thomas Sowell said it well: “Since this is an era when many people are concerned about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what someone else has worked for?”

https://www.ntu.org/foundation/tax-p...s-income-taxes

Back to the topic of inflation.

I heard some of you say: “I don’t think it is the feds job to control inflation “

Really?

If it is not the Fed’s job to raise rates to decrease inflation and cool the stock market when it is out of control, what is the role of the fed?

Did the Fed create inflation and the over-valued stock market by printing trillions and lowering rates and is it possible they went too far?

Do you think they can print too much money? Is it at least possible that they went too far with the interest rate of zero and printing $?

Should they raise rates? Would this not also protect them in the future if we have another pandemic or other annoying thing that hurts the economy?

If rates are zero does this not decrease their power to intervene during another recession?

I would be happier with less government and less intervention by big government but if you make a mess I think you must at least make an effort to clean.

[jacoavlu]

lol jerome powell already priming so they can blame high inflation on omicron

[xraygoggles]

The fed on printing money, I think that can be a rabbit hole. I think the system has problems but they are doing their best. I think it is very easy to look at correlations and think it means causation. It may seem like the fed are a bunch of serial bubble blowers and engender bubbles or they may just be following the natural progression of interest rates (which would have gone down anyway in the last 20 years). I am not even sure what a bubble is anymore.

Yep: low (or even negative) interest rates are the norm for most of the other first world countries, and have been for some years now. Only now is the US catching up. It is the new normal, and will likely stay that way for a while.

Re: inflation - it's entirely possible this is a transient phenomenon, and will come back down in less than a year. While omicron and other future variants will continue to affect supply chains, when that ultimately gets resolved, inflation will likely come back to 3-4%, which is the historical average in the US.

[Dont_know_mind]

Did the Fed create inflation and the over-valued stock market by printing trillions and lowering rates and is it possible they went too far?

Do you think they can print too much money? Is it at least possible that they went too far with the interest rate of zero and printing $?

Should they raise rates? Would this not also protect them in the future if we have another pandemic or other annoying thing that hurts the economy?

If rates are zero does this not decrease their power to intervene during another recession?

I would be happier with less government and less intervention by big government but if you make a mess I think you must at least make an effort to clean.

I think this is a view that was consensus in around 2009-2012. I think people have changed their views, or at least I have. The correlation between interest rates and asset prices is not so obvious if you take a larger sample set. For instance, stocks have not gone up appreciably with negative rates in Europe or Japan, so lower rates are not a sufficient condition for asset price inflation.

No one really knows what determines inflation. My theory is that it is related to labour mobility and the demand for bonds. The latter maybe affected by retirement savings (which have grown and may continue to).

Ultimately, I think the role of the central bank is to insure against systemic collapse. In that sense, it is a different model to pre-fed. By insuring deposits and systemic wipeouts, valuations are higher than they otherwise would be.

I don’t really worry too much about how the world should be. It is what it is. To me the Fed is like the umpire. It’s not fair or unfair. They have said they will keep rates lower. If they keep real rates lower, that may not be so great for bond holders.

I think we have to be careful not to believe at face value a lot of what is written about monetary policy and macroeconomics. My favourite belief that turned out wrong was listening to the Roggoff and Rhinehardt book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly”. Quite plausibly they conclude when a countries debt:GDP is above 90%, it results in a negative spiral and they cited their study of “800 years” of financial history to back it up. Rhinehardt is now world bank chief economist. The statistical conclusions of the book were discredited by a US student who found an error in the data analysis. Researchers discovered that their 2010 paper "Growth in a Time of Debt" had methodological and computational errors.

The conclusions of the book are laughable now. But it was used as a bullwark of the pro-austerity movement worldwide in policies post GFC (2009). The arc of history moves and now the pendulum swings the other way. It seems now the austerity post 2009 was mistaken. This is an article from 2014.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...off-are-wrong/

[Dont_know_mind]

Yep: low (or even negative) interest rates are the norm for most of the other first world countries, and have been for some years now. Only now is the US catching up. It is the new normal, and will likely stay that way for a while.

Re: inflation - it's entirely possible this is a transient phenomenon, and will come back down in less than a year. While omicron and other future variants will continue to affect supply chains, when that ultimately gets resolved, inflation will likely come back to 3-4%, which is the historical average in the US.

I tend to think now that inflation has been in the media, it probably will be transitory for a year or 2 and probably resume to 3%. I think the consensus and the Fed are probably correct, but who knows. I can’t see a good risk-reward from owning long dated bonds even if inflation turns out to be 1-2% for 20 years. I guess they could do well if short term rates are negative or if risk assets do very poorly.

[Tangler]

I tend to think now that inflation has been in the media, it probably will be transitory for a year or 2 and probably resume to 3%.

Why?

[Hatton]

Inflation is here. How long it stays is anyone's guess. It cost me $52 to fill up my mid-sized SUV yesterday. This is the most I have ever paid in 64 years. It will not effect me that gas prices are up but lots of people notice this above anything else.
I remember how in the 90s the stock market hung on every word Allen Greenspan said about interest rates. Every increase the market tanked.

[Tangler]

No one really knows what determines inflation.

Really?

Maybe i am too simple but my guess is the following:

1. Increase in money supply. Trillions

2. disruption in supply chain from pandemic & response by government.

3. Historically low interest rates encourage borrowing and spending. Homes have mortgages and people buy mostly based on the monthly payment. Low rates = higher prices.

4. Difficulty increasing supply because workers were incentivized to not work. Paid to stay home. Less incentive to work & improve supply.

I wonder what the media narrative would be if Trump was in office?

My guess is they would point out theses things and blame him.

I am not a huge Trump fan. I wish we would have had someone more in the center who listens.

I think he was a bit of a fool at times and i would have much preferred another person.

but in my opinion NPR, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc are all so pro-biden that we cannot get unbiased news easily.

Fox is noise. MSNBC is noise. CNN is noise

You just pick your bias.

Dont_know_mind try to be honest with yourself.

If Trump was still in office do you think you would still be saying things like “no one really knows what causes inflation “.

Maybe so.

Maybe i am just too simple to understand all of it.

I think our government (regardless of who was in charge) helped create this mess in several ways.

[Hatton]

Be careful of political statements.

[jacoavlu]

go play monopoly and then when all the stuff is owned and you’re pretty deep in the game double the money supply. give a little bit to each player. and take away the controlled rent prices. see what happens. it’s not big brain stuff.

[Tangler]

Be careful of political statements.

Roger that. will cease and desist.

[JBME]

Inflation is here. How long it stays is anyone's guess. It cost me $52 to fill up my mid-sized SUV yesterday. This is the most I have ever paid in 64 years. It will not effect me that gas prices are up but lots of people notice this above anything else.
I remember how in the 90s the stock market hung on every word Allen Greenspan said about interest rates. Every increase the market tanked.

I don't think gas prices are at an all-time high in the country, are they? I'm "only" paying around $3/gal now and I remember when they were $4 or so. I did live in another part of the country though. The prices are high but I'm not sure highest ever. I do remember when I first started driving in the late 90's and gas was under $1 a gallon where I lived. Those were the days. Markets tanked when Greenspan spoke yet overall the 90s were great for the stock market so Greenspan knew what he was doing