Inflation

[CordMcNally]

Just wait until August when student loans resume. 20% of americans are going to get $100-$4,000 stripped from them monthly. That will absolutely help...

0% chance that happens.

[CordMcNally]

I heard a RE expert on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business podcast say that the rate hikes will take a while to bring down home prices. Makes sense to me. People selling are stubborn and reluctant to lower price and supply is slowly increasing. I am hoping to pay cash for a home in 1-5 years and I hope I can do it when rates are >6%.

I also would be ok with the market dropping more and staying down for a while. I put 15k in last week and I will continue throwing all I can into stock index funds.

Now seems like a good time to work extra and invest in stock index funds for the long run.

Good time to plant. Just keep buying!

I think we’ll see a period where homes just stay on the market for an extended period of time and then sellers will lower the prices. I’m already seeing that in my neighborhood. Like every other place, homes would go for above asking the weekend they were listed. Now there’s two homes that have been on the market for 1-2 months. I suspect those prices will need to come down before they’re sold.

[Zaphod]

Already seeing declines in prices and increase in inventory in the markets that went the most bonkers, its happening faster and will continue, things are more unaffordable than ever, cant have highest nomical prices and then high rates at same time, makes no sense.

[Tim]

Already seeing declines in prices and increase in inventory in the markets that went the most bonkers, its happening faster and will continue, things are more unaffordable than ever, cant have highest nomical prices and then high rates at same time, makes no sense.

Just a reminder. Declining prices is deflation. Zero inflation means the higher prices stick. Stuck with the imbalances with higher interest rates, stagnant with consumers making tons of uncomfortable adjustments. Right where we are if nothing else changes.

[F0017S0]

Just a reminder. Declining prices is deflation. Zero inflation means the higher prices stick. Stuck with the imbalances with higher interest rates, stagnant with consumers making tons of uncomfortable adjustments. Right where we are if nothing else changes.

I don't see any deflationary reversion to "normal" prices happening (i.e. those typically seen pre-COVID). If I read what you are saying correctly, I suspect that the higher prices are already entrenched in the economy and they aren't coming out.

It's another sad reminder that the gains (and more) made by the average guy in mid-to-late 2021 are being sucked up by the big guys.

[Tim]

I don't see any deflationary reversion to "normal" prices happening (i.e. those typically seen pre-COVID). If I read what you are saying correctly, I suspect that the higher prices are already entrenched in the economy and they aren't coming out.

It's another sad reminder that the gains (and more) made by the average guy in mid-to-late 2021 are being sucked up by the big guys.

The economy has similarities to over bought/over sold metrics for stock trading. Sometimes it continues up, sometimes is stays the same until market orders gradually workout order imbalances and some times the price retreats. Our economy is over heated. I have no clue how it will stabilize. But it will.

[East coast]

Just wait until August when student loans resume. 20% of americans are going to get $100-$4,000 stripped from them monthly. That will absolutely help...

Curious where you get 20% or if you were being hyperbolic maybe? That's twice the amount I've seen historically for being affected.

[F0017S0]

The economy has similarities to over bought/over sold metrics for stock trading. Sometimes it continues up, sometimes is stays the same until market orders gradually workout order imbalances and some times the price retreats. Our economy is over heated. I have no clue how it will stabilize. But it will.

I agree with your conclusion that the economy will stabilize: my thinking is it will stabilize at a significantly higher pricing baseline than the pre-COVID days. Consider gas: in SoCal, you used to be able to set your watch to the gas prices (i.e. $3-ish in the winter/spring and $4.25-ish in the summer/fall). You could budget around that cyclic nature, even though it was pricey compared to the rest of the country.

My expectation is that inflation is entrenched by this point: everyone expects everything to cost more such that the new dynamic might be $4.50-ish in the winter/spring and $5.75-6-ish in the summer/fall.

So will the economy stabilize? Yes, I expect you are correct, just at a higher price point. I don't think we would reach true stability without some serious deflation (note, not dis-inflation).

[Tim]

I agree with your conclusion that the economy will stabilize: my thinking is it will stabilize at a significantly higher pricing baseline than the pre-COVID days. Consider gas: in SoCal, you used to be able to set your watch to the gas prices (i.e. $3-ish in the winter/spring and $4.25-ish in the summer/fall). You could budget around that cyclic nature, even though it was pricey compared to the rest of the country.

My expectation is that inflation is entrenched by this point: everyone expects everything to cost more such that the new dynamic might be $4.50-ish in the winter/spring and $5.75-6-ish in the summer/fall.

So will the economy stabilize? Yes, I expect you are correct, just at a higher price point. I don't think we would reach true stability without some serious deflation (note, not dis-inflation).

Well, some don’t think gas should be sold.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commenti...es-fuel-prices

At any price. So Cal, well the world needs some sense of reality. Janet Yellen is pushing for a type of world tax agreement. Next step? World climate agreement? No borders? Or only the ones some group wants? There are those that have a drastically different view of what an economy should be. Economics depend on political behaviors. Weird stuff going on. Government by mandates.

[jacoavlu]

Well, some don’t think gas should be sold.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commenti...es-fuel-prices

At any price. So Cal, well the world needs some sense of reality. Janet Yellen is pushing for a type of world tax agreement. Next step? World climate agreement? No borders? Or only the ones some group wants? There are those that have a drastically different view of what an economy should be. Economics depend on political behaviors. Weird stuff going on. Government by mandates.

the world has been flipped upside down. The left are now the authoritarians

[Otolith]

Curious where you get 20% or if you were being hyperbolic maybe? That's twice the amount I've seen historically for being affected.

You are right 20% is an over estimate as not all are federal student loans. But i just looked and 43.4 million people have federal student debt...

[Tangler]

You are right 20% is an over estimate as not all are federal student loans. But i just looked and 43.4 million people have federal student debt...

That is a lot of student loans. I would not borrow a lot of money to get an education now. I would figure out another path. Knowledge can be easily gained and information is ubiquitous yet tuition has skyrocketed and degrees are absurdly expensive.

Some type of disruption is ripe for the picking.

Perhaps efficient affordable online preparation for standard graduate entrance exams can replace absurdly expensive and wasteful undergraduate education? I am not sure undergrad is worth the price.

State schools are even becoming expensive.

STEM education is still worth it but the tuition costs are too high.

Might be better off learning HVAC repair as an apprenticeship rather than getting a liberal arts degree from an expensive private college.

Assuming people actually start paying student loans again.

[F0017S0]

That is a lot of student loans. I would not borrow a lot of money to get an education now. I would figure out another path. Knowledge can be easily gained and information is ubiquitous yet tuition has skyrocketed and degrees are absurdly expensive.

Some type of disruption is ripe for the picking.

Perhaps efficient affordable online preparation for standard graduate entrance exams can replace absurdly expensive and wasteful undergraduate education? I am not sure undergrad is worth the price.

State schools are even becoming expensive.

STEM education is still worth it but the tuition costs are too high.

Might be better off learning HVAC repair as an apprenticeship rather than getting a liberal arts degree from an expensive private college.

Assuming people actually start paying student loans again.

It would appear that all the federal government did over the last sixty or so years of the student loan system is create a credit bubble pocked with tenuous promises of forgiveness that educational institutions (undergraduate and graduate/professional) are binging on. The fallout could be spectacular, almost a financial Chernobyl…

On the subject of inflation in general, DJ D-Sol of the Goldman Sachs corporation says it’s gonna stay around a while: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/18/gold...-economy-.html

The theme is the same: people are drunk on credit and funny money…

[StateOfMyHead]

The theme is the same: people are drunk on credit and funny money…

I have seen that movie before. The end is as predictable as one might imagine.

[F0017S0]

Well, some don’t think gas should be sold.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commenti...es-fuel-prices

At any price. So Cal, well the world needs some sense of reality. Janet Yellen is pushing for a type of world tax agreement. Next step? World climate agreement? No borders? Or only the ones some group wants? There are those that have a drastically different view of what an economy should be. Economics depend on political behaviors. Weird stuff going on. Government by mandates.

I have occasionally wondered to myself whether it would be worth going back to the gold standard…