Inflation

[Tim]

Flyover country might get hit harder by inflation than the coastal cities. The Bush ties to Midland would have given them an earful.
The concept of distance is different.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/highest-inflation-america-punishing-texas-040101336.html

ElPaso to Texarkana is close to NYC to Jacksonville Fl.
For sure DC won’t have a clue what the impact is.

[Tim]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/inflation-relief-checks-worth-up-to-1050-dollars-per-person-may-come-to-california.html

California solution to inflation: send out checks!

[Lordosis]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/infl...alifornia.html

California solution to inflation: send out checks!

It is so simple how can it fail?!?

[Tangler]

It is so simple how can it fail?!?

wow.

[Random1]

Robin Hood would be proud.

[Zzyzx]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/infl...alifornia.html

California solution to inflation: send out checks!

That's a clickbait article, it's structured to counter gas inflation. The original proposal was for debit cards for registered vehicle owners intended for gas relief but was modified to this which scales to income. It also includes a suspension of a portion of the diesel sales tax, lowering prices by about 23 cents per gallon.
https://www.capradio.org/articles/20...entative-deal/

[Tim]

That's a clickbait article, it's structured to counter gas inflation. The original proposal was for debit cards for registered vehicle owners intended for gas relief but was modified to this which scales to income. It also includes a suspension of a portion of the diesel sales tax, lowering prices by about 23 cents per gallon.
https://www.capradio.org/articles/20...entative-deal/

No way will it come close to countering the cost to the population. Whoopee, a portion of the diesel tax. Clickbait program. Just my take.

[Panscan]

That's a clickbait article, it's structured to counter gas inflation. The original proposal was for debit cards for registered vehicle owners intended for gas relief but was modified to this which scales to income. It also includes a suspension of a portion of the diesel sales tax, lowering prices by about 23 cents per gallon.
https://www.capradio.org/articles/20...entative-deal/

it will pour fuel on the fire and contribute to inflation. You cannot solve this by subsidizing demand. We have to have demand destruction barring a magical pivot by the Biden admin to encourage oil development.

[bovie]

That's a clickbait article, it's structured to counter gas inflation. The original proposal was for debit cards for registered vehicle owners intended for gas relief but was modified to this which scales to income. It also includes a suspension of a portion of the diesel sales tax, lowering prices by about 23 cents per gallon.
https://www.capradio.org/articles/20...entative-deal/

A couple things come to mind:

1) If California wasn’t competing for highest state gas tax—at triple the federal rate—it would be better for Californians.

2) If California didn’t also charge sales tax on gas—yes, it’s taxed twice—it would be better for Californians

3) Fuel is taxed upon purchase from the supplier, it is not paid by the end consumer—any temporary “tax breaks” will not necessarily be passed to the consumer.

4) Sending people checks will not fix any of this. Are these people really that dense, or do they just straight up not care?

Rhetorical of course—the answer is both.

[CordMcNally]

While I love the thought of returning excess receipts back to the people (they’re doing this incorrectly since the people who paid the most in get nothing), my guess is this will lead to deficits down the road and they’ll have to bring in even more money. Pretty short-sighted, in my opinion.

[jacoavlu]

Jay Powell basically has admitted they don't understand inflation nor can "experts" predict inflation

[Random1]

Paul Volker understood inflation, maybe Jay Powell could look at a history book.

[Antares]

Antares
”I don’t know what I’m talking about here. Can someone please explain why I am catastrophizing? Maybe things are fine, and I’ve misconstrued the situation….”

You were correct from the start of this post. I have no doubt just about everyone in the country then and now feel the same way. Some choose to look the other way. Actually, could be intentionally. Five months later, have you noticed any improvements?

Thank you, I think. There is little satisfaction in being right. It is hard to see myself as right when I also observe (and feel the pain) that I followed the conventional wisdom of not changing my plan even when I reread my clear prediction of what was about to happen. Yeah, I’ll be fine, almost everyone on this forum will be fine, but it didn’t have to be this way. But the fact is I’m too old not to have learned my lesson. I don’t usually do well by trying to profit from economic insights.

Have I noticed any improvements? Indeed I have. The Fed has raised rates. They have signaled additional increases. So far, we haven’t lurched into recession, and I’m fairly confident that if we do, the economy will weather the storm in the long run. Companies will adapt. But it seems far too soon to feel good about where we are. I am less frustrated by the idea that no one in authority is paying attention.

The challenge for me is remembering that times like these are the ordinary expectable way that markets function. Periodically there are big waves that sweep away bubbles and irrationalities that have festered. And eventually a new day comes. I do not like it. But this is the way it is, and unless you are constructed differently from me (and I know a few happy people lying in their beach chairs as money pours in from their market shorts but I am who I am) you wait and wait and eventually, for a time, a transient sense of peace returns.

[Tim]

Jay Powell basically has admitted they don't understand inflation nor can "experts" predict inflation

A quote from Powell’s recent Senate testimony,
”"You know what's worse than high inflation and low unemployment is high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work, and I hope you'll reconsider that before you drive the economy off a cliff,"
Elizabeth Warren lecturing Powell on interest rates.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/22/powell-tells-congress-the-fed-is-strongly-committed-to-bringing-inflation-down.html

2% inflation here we go. This is gonna hurt.

[Tangler]

No clue what will happen or where this will go.

Why is it surprising that you cannot fix inflation by handing out money?


What can I do?

Actionable stuff?

1. work extra

2. invest more

3. enjoy the little things

4. Ignore the noise

5. Vote and hope for the best.

Now "seems" like a good time to do a little extra work and pile that money into VTI / VXUS etc. I am also going to build up my cash bucket (antidote for SORR).

So now I am working extra, saving more and just trying to enjoy the summer (the little things).