Inflation

[LazerBeams]

Looks like latest numbers are out and pretty high with messaging from the fed that they are growing more concerned.

I was glad I didn't refinance our student loans in September with the latest extension, but now I'm worried if I wait until January to see what happens the rates will jump again. Anyone who's more familiar with fed action -- if they do raise rates in response to the inflationary numbers, what does that typically look like? Big bump, small bump, implemented immediately or usually with telegraphing in advance of the change?

[CordMcNally]

Looks like latest numbers are out and pretty high with messaging from the fed that they are growing more concerned.

I was glad I didn't refinance our student loans in September with the latest extension, but now I'm worried if I wait until January to see what happens the rates will jump again. Anyone who's more familiar with fed action -- if they do raise rates in response to the inflationary numbers, what does that typically look like? Big bump, small bump, implemented immediately or usually with telegraphing in advance of the change?

Nobody knows, especially the Fed.

[Kamban]

Anyone who's more familiar with fed action -- if they do raise rates in response to the inflationary numbers, what does that typically look like? Big bump, small bump, implemented immediately or usually with telegraphing in advance of the change?

They usually start out with 25 basis points ( 0.25%) increase and reassess and it does not achieve the result they do 0.25% increments at 3 month intervals. That is what they have done in the past. Usually no major increase at one time.

[JBME]

They usually start out with 25 basis points ( 0.25%) increase and reassess and it does not achieve the result they do 0.25% increments at 3 month intervals. That is what they have done in the past. Usually no major increase at one time.

this. I think the last time the fed ever raised it 50 basis points or more at one time was back during the Greenspan era. I don't see more than 25 basis point increments going forward

[jacoavlu]

ok i’m honestly confused by the message here. maybe i’m too dumb to understand. but this seems more like one of those “dudes posting their L’s” tweets than anything

https://twitter.com/potus/status/1469474907700477958?s=21

[triad]

ok i’m honestly confused by the message here. maybe i’m too dumb to understand. but this seems more like one of those “dudes posting their L’s” tweets than anything

https://twitter.com/potus/status/146...700477958?s=21

if the US defaulted on the debt that would lead to an immediate recession.

[jacoavlu]

if the US defaulted on the debt that would lead to an immediate recession.

like i get the point of the action, but not the message. aren’t we just “paying our debts” by raising our credit limit?

[triad]

like i get the point of the action, but not the message. aren’t we just “paying our debts” by raising our credit limit?

he's in favor of not having a self-inflicted recession. the other party feels differently

[Tim]

like i get the point of the action, but not the message. aren’t we just “paying our debts” by raising our credit limit?

Reminds me of the guy that asked for help getting a loan. Always made payroll! Just didn’t pay any payroll taxes. Geez. Messaging. I got him a loan. Just not from a bank. Common sense and personal guarantees are not attributes of politics.

[jacoavlu]

he's in favor of not having a self-inflicted recession. the other party feels differently

my guess would be everyone knew it would happen shortly before the deadline, and one party stalled so they could bluster for a while and get some pork stuffed in the bill or something like that

[triad]

my guess would be everyone knew it would happen shortly before the deadline, and one party stalled so they could bluster for a while and get some pork stuffed in the bill or something like that

unfortunately that isn't the case. one party isn't interested in governing

[bovie]

he's in favor of not having a self-inflicted recession.

Irony? LOL.

[CordMcNally]

I’m excited to see us spend our way out of rising inflation. You could make a case that certain spending would help but BBB ain’t gonna do it.

[Tim]

Inflation is viewed as static object statistic. It is not.and it is a composite average that has undergone many changes. The numbers in different decades measured different things and also the different locations are different than the composite average.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2014/article/one-hundred-years-of-price-change-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-american-inflation-experience.htm

A long narrative for 100 years history.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/historical-changes.htm

It stated as a cost of living comparison of 32 cities.
A lot of changes have been made.
I mention these not that anyone would read them, but the government reaction to inflation has another tool that will raise it’s ugly head if this continues.
PRICE CONTROLS.
If government spending and debt isn’t effective,
the next step is regulating specific prices. It has been done before, and certainly would be considered. Ultimately does not work until government policies change.

[Random1]

I guess the laws of supply and demand don't work any more. Years of economic theory and wasted Phd s down the drain with the new economical models. Just change the data set to create your version of the statistics. None of this really matters when you go food shopping and the shelves empty and the items that are left are too expensive to feed your family.