Inflation

[Tangler]

I’m actually not a huge fan of a flat tax because with the way the US spends it would likely cripple the lower/middle class. .

Would it really?

I don’t think it would if it was ____% after the first 100k

I think it would encourage them.

Also, simplify it tremendously.

1. no taxes on 1st 100k income.
2. ____% after first 100k
3. charitable deductions.

Is 100k too high to start?

ok, make it 50k for single, 80k for married filing jointly.

Do your taxes in less than 10 min.

[Lordosis]

Very well said.

The thing i don’t fully agree with is the flat tax part.

I think a simple flat tax of_____% (make it whatever is needed) of every federal dollar over 100k would encourage people to work rather than progressively penalizing them for productivity.

Keep charitable deductions and done.

Tax code finished in 3 lines.

I think we live in a great country. What bothers me is that we have a current system where the top 50% pays 97.1% of the federal income taxes and some feel they still don’t pay their “fair share”

”what exactly is your fair share of what someone else has worked for” Thomas Sowell

Paying taxes is ok.

Being grateful for our great country and grateful to pay your taxes is ok.

Being angry at someone because you think they are too wealthy and should pay more in taxes than they do……..?

The last one is where i have a problem.

Sorry for the political discussion. I know many disagree with my views.

No offense intended.

Have a good morning.

Simple is better for us (the people).

complexity is better because it allows agendas to be pushed.
Want to support the real estate market? Big deductions!
Want people to invest in the stock market? Lower cap gains taxes!

Etc etc.

[Zaphod]

Why would a tax increase peoples wanting to work, its the opposite of everything a tax is known for and all logic of course.

[CordMcNally]

Would it really?

I don’t think it would if it was ____% after the first 100k

I think it would encourage them.

Also, simplify it tremendously.

1. no taxes on 1st 100k income.
2. ____% after first 100k
3. charitable deductions.

Is 100k too high to start?

ok, make it 50k for single, 80k for married filing jointly.

Do your taxes in less than 10 min.

When I think of a flat tax I think of a true flat tax so that's what my comments were based on although I guess there are lots of different variations of a flat tax.

[Tangler]

Why would a tax increase peoples wanting to work, its the opposite of everything a tax is known for and all logic of course.

When you progressively increase taxes on the last dollar as opposed to taxing all dollars over, say, 100k by the same amount you progressively punish the doc who works extra and earns over 400k.

If a person feels every dollar over 400k is going to get slammed they just give up, or at least don't feel incentivized to do extra.

Why start at 50, or 100k? to avoid hurting the folks at the bottom.

I should have just ignored the thread and stopped posting.

Pointless discussion. Sorry for getting you all rilled up.

[Tangler]

Simple is better for us (the people).

complexity is better because it allows agendas to be pushed.
Want to support the real estate market? Big deductions!
Want people to invest in the stock market? Lower cap gains taxes!

Etc etc.

Yes. This is exactly correct.

One piece of common ground I think I share with the people on the left is that the complexity favors the smart and the wealthy (often the same person/group).

For example. I bought a condo in NE. Was a primary residence. Bought for 600k. Sold for 900k. No mortgage.

So I had a capital gain of 300k but since it was my primary residence I paid exactly zero in taxes.

This was in a year where my wife and I had over 600k in income.

How often could a poor or lower middle class person do this? Is this "fair".

I think it is ridiculous. Certainly not fair and not something someone who has a low income or inexpensive home would benefit from.

Frankly this is the kind of thing that should go away. Up to 500k gains on a home sale taxed at zero?

Benefits only the wealthy........lots of stuff like that.

TLH is another example.

How many poor and lower middle class people are selling VTSAX and buying an S&P 500 fund to lock in losses in march-may 2020?

Why should I have been allowed to do that?

I will take every little advantage I can, but I think it is unnecessarily complex and silly.

Frankly, make it simple. Make it fair.

Spend it carefully and stop telling the people paying the most that they are not paying their "fair share".

[Tim]

Inflation is not really impacted by tax policies. Taxes impact employment, opportunities created and the health of the economy.
Employment impacts the GDP, how the economy grows or shrinks.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf This was released today. Less jobs created than anticipated but unemployment rate down.
What is lost in the headline numbers is the definition of labor participation. The headline numbers are simply statistics. I know just enough to be ignorant.

"The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in
November, little changed over the month but up by 849,000 since February 2020. These individuals
were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks
preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to
the labor force was little changed at 1.6 million in November. These individuals wanted and were
available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the
marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was essentially unchanged over
the month at 450,000. (See Summary table A.)

I just saw a "messaging" on the TV. The point is that a large portion of the population can work and should be working but are not working.
Many are under employed and part-time or have simply decided to sit this one out.

The JOLTS report has a longer lag based on the data collections from the states. The employment numbers have 3 or 4 revisions because they are based on sampling.
This report dissects the employment picture in more detail.

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

From only a common sense perspective, too many people are choosing not to work. That is not a good thing and I will let each decide to choose their on propaganda source or talking heads. Draw your own conclusions. This is the minefield the FED works with to balance full employment and inflation. Based on data that can only be subjectively assessed.

The problem is not with the data but with the messaging which impacts the desired acceptance of fiscal policies including taxes. I don't know the answer. But there are clouds on the horizon for employment.

[Zaphod]

When you progressively increase taxes on the last dollar as opposed to taxing all dollars over, say, 100k by the same amount you progressively punish the doc who works extra and earns over 400k.

If a person feels every dollar over 400k is going to get slammed they just give up, or at least don't feel incentivized to do extra.

Why start at 50, or 100k? to avoid hurting the folks at the bottom.

I should have just ignored the thread and stopped posting.

Pointless discussion. Sorry for getting you all rilled up.

No i 100% agree, I was responding to a flat tax 'encouraging' even low wage workers, its crazy, sure it would encourage high earners.

[Tim]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/06/a-major-shift-is-underway-at-the-federal-reserve-that-could-see-a-speedier-end-to-its-easy-policies.html

The FED moved first and went all in to eliminate panic. Liquidity was maximized.
They are telegraphing exactly what they are going to due. Reduce support of the liquidity of the credit markets and raise short term rates in 2022. These are the only tools that impact individuals and private businesses. Huge potential impact on employment and inflation.

Now it is up to Fiscal Policy. Government spending and taxes.

The FED is much more transparent and advanced communications than Volcker or Greenspan. There is a whole industry now that analyze the FED meeting commentary. The actual changes are “old news”, expected. Forget the words, interest rates are going up in 2022. This is a “leak” and will be followed by various Fed Governors talks to various groups. Then in the Fed Meeting comments and statements. The only question is how much and when.
That is determined by data and the fiscal policies. Too late, too soon, maybe. Now you know where the FED is going. If you want long term debt at low rates, lock it in. Don’t fight the FED. Criticize and cursing is fine.
Inflation vs employment, the equilibrium has shifted to the former. December’s numbers will confirm (regardless of the supply chain/variant talking points of blame).
Just one take, but the tea leafs line up.
How this effects the stock market is a different question.

[Dermonc]

How are docs supposed to respond to these inflationary pressures? Are insurance companies and Medicare going to increase their fee’s in relation to the current inflation? I feel pressure to increase my wages but as far as I am aware Medicare is still planning on decreasing reimbursement next year.

[Random1]

They aren't, because everyone knows doctors are rich. With increasing wage pressures and decreasing and or stagnant reimbursments, 2022 with be less profitable.

[jacoavlu]

How are docs supposed to respond to these inflationary pressures? Are insurance companies and Medicare going to increase their fee’s in relation to the current inflation? I feel pressure to increase my wages but as far as I am aware Medicare is still planning on decreasing reimbursement next year.

own assets, dont be in a hurry to pay off low interest debt

[Tim]

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/10/inflation-vs-stock-market-returns/

Ben has a nice chart. Stock market returns vs inflation.
Pick another data point and add it to the chart. Interest rates, employment or unemployment, Medicare reimbursement rates or anyone one you choose.
Try to find leading, lagging or confirming indicators.
Make each individual decision as best as you can, there is no clear answer and ignore the noise.

[CordMcNally]

Biden releasing an unusual statement yesterday saying that the report today won't reflect today's current reality doesn't seem like a great sign.

[Tim]

Biden’s closing remarks for Bob Dole’s capitol rotunda ceremony weren’t exactly inspiring, although perfectly delivered.

”End of message.”
I am trying to view this as normal.