Rivian, the investment

[Max Power]

Any IPO this year is going to be relative disaster due to global market conditions.

This Rivian is likely to be a disappointment even if the product's good. There are too many strong competitors for EV trucks... plenty among even just the established truck makers.

...but yeah, the market tide carries even good or bad boats high or low with it. I hope Boxabl waits awhile to IPO and enters a normal or hot market. I bought a good amount of premarket shares on that.

[CordMcNally]

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/rivian-r1t-gets-its-first-recall-over-safety-issue-188619.html

Already recalling 500 trucks. That’s got to be a large percentage of what they’ve produced.

[Nysoz]

What I was trying to say with that post was that even those of us on this forum that grew up poor or modestly, we've all been removed from that life of trying to scrounge to pay bills, living paycheck to paycheck, or dealing with financial worry, not 'how am I going to pay for private school' financial worry, but true financial worry that it's tough to put yourselves in the shoes of the average American. Our federal government certainly lost touch with the average American long ago.

Prices will definitely come down but I think they need to come down naturally, not with various credits and ridiculous subsidies. Besides, once EV prices come down and everyone is driving one, the play will then be to have an ICE vehicles since gas will be so cheap and electric will be expensive.

That's one thing I kinda missed about being in clinic. I'd overhear one particular office girl (self admitted hot mess) and her complaints about spending, filling up gas tank, water bills, cable bills, electricity bills, dead beat ex, etc. It really reminded me what regular people deal with on a day to day basis.

Once all supply chain issues resolve, EVs will be cheaper as battery costs, manufacturing improves. Feature for feature, total cost of ownership of an EV is cheaper than ICE. People think of EV subsidies but forget about all the oil and gas subsidies.

As for Rivian and other new EV companies. People forget that Tesla was around for like 18 years selling very expensive high end cars before they were able to create a mass market product and become consistently profitable. They were creating a niche product then and now all the competitors are jumping into a crowded field.

Then bringing in the legacy ICE companies, a lot of them don't make much money on making the vehicles at all and most of their money is made from being a bank with their financing arms. I wouldn't be surprised if all the OEMs still lose money on every EV they sell.

I'd be hard pressed to invest in any of these now (even TSLA) in this environment, but if I had to choose I'm of course biased towards TSLA as 'expensive' as it is.

[CordMcNally]

Nikola all the way!

As long as you're going downhill then you should be ok.

[Hank]

Now that Ford is offloading 8% of its stake, anyone doubling down? Currently <$24/share.

Nikola all the way!

[CordMcNally]

Ouch, it's been awhile since I've been called ignorant. I guess I took the statement that they are impractical at face value and was just thinking in terms of practicality for every day utility for an average commute and living situation. If your argument that EVs are impractical because of current cost, I'm not going to argue with you but then why not just say EVs are too expensive? I think most believe prices will come down and eventually it's going to cost a lot less to buy an EV than it is to buy ICE and fill up your tank several times a month at $4-5 dollars a gallon. By the way, I commute to multiple rural and small town communities and can assure you that I see and appreciate the economic reality for the lower class on a daily basis.

I wasn't personally attacking you and I apologize it came off that way. I value your opinions and think you bring great insight. What I was trying to say with that post was that even those of us on this forum that grew up poor or modestly, we've all been removed from that life of trying to scrounge to pay bills, living paycheck to paycheck, or dealing with financial worry, not 'how am I going to pay for private school' financial worry, but true financial worry that it's tough to put yourselves in the shoes of the average American. Our federal government certainly lost touch with the average American long ago.

Prices will definitely come down but I think they need to come down naturally, not with various credits and ridiculous subsidies. Besides, once EV prices come down and everyone is driving one, the play will then be to have an ICE vehicles since gas will be so cheap and electric will be expensive.

[TheDangerZone]

I think this kind of thinking is somewhat ignorant with regards to how the 'average' American lives and what they want/need and what they can afford. The average American will not have an EV any time soon. This doesn't take into account the increased demand on the energy grid. I don't have any specific knowledge of our electric grid but I'd guess that it would likely need significant upgrades. The average American is being slammed by inflation and having to stretch their money to even get groceries. EVs aren't even on the minds of the average American. Besides, all these states increasing gas taxes are hurting low income families even more.

I guess I took the statement that they are impractical at face value and was just thinking in terms of practicality for every day utility for an average commute and living situation.

If your argument that EVs are impractical because of current cost, I'm not going to argue with you but then why not just say EVs are too expensive? I do think most believe prices will come down and eventually and at some point the gas savings will be an advantage when it comes to cost to own. By the way, I commute to multiple rural and small town communities and can assure you that I see and appreciate the economic reality for the lower class on a daily basis. Apologies to anyone offended by my "somewhat ignorant" discourse.

[CordMcNally]

It's too bad the company is trending in the wrong direction because by all accounts, the vehicles themselves are top notch.

In terms of EVs being practical, I think we've already there with range given the average work commute is 16 miles with an average travel time just over 30 minutes. So I guess it's the charging -- home charging is not extremely burdensome or complicated for home owners and home renters.

So if we're talking about people that park in public spaces or rent in complexes/condos, then sure that's a challenge but according to a quick google search, something like 70% of Americans live in homes while 20% live in condos/apartments.

So it stands to reason that with an average commute time in plus the vast majority of Americans living in a home, I think it's not that "far off" or impractical as it might seem for normal commuting and driving. You probably wouldn't even have to charge your vehicle every night. I say all this as someone without an EV and with minimal interest in getting one.

I think this kind of thinking is somewhat ignorant with regards to how the 'average' American lives and what they want/need and what they can afford. The average American will not have an EV any time soon. This doesn't take into account the increased demand on the energy grid. I don't have any specific knowledge of our electric grid but I'd guess that it would likely need significant upgrades. The average American is being slammed by inflation and having to stretch their money to even get groceries. EVs aren't even on the minds of the average American. Besides, all these states increasing gas taxes are hurting low income families even more.

[TheDangerZone]

It's too bad the company is trending in the wrong direction because by all accounts, the vehicles themselves are top notch.

In terms of EVs being practical, I think we've already there with range given the average work commute is 16 miles with an average travel time just over 30 minutes. So I guess it's the charging -- home charging is not extremely burdensome or complicated for home owners and home renters.

So if we're talking about people that park in public spaces or rent in complexes/condos, then sure that's a challenge but according to a quick google search, something like 70% of Americans live in homes while 20% live in condos/apartments.

So it stands to reason that with an average commute time in plus the vast majority of Americans living in a home, I think it's not that "far off" or impractical as it might seem for normal commuting and driving. You probably wouldn't even have to charge your vehicle every night. I say all this as someone without an EV and with minimal interest in getting one.

[StarTrekDoc]

Rivian needs to make vehicles at scale to survive. Tesla BARELY got there with weeks of cash on hand to spare and had massive VC style funding.

Rivian was backed by industry, which now is fleeing even before ramp up = not a good sign.

[bovie]

I don't care what anyone says but for the majority of the country, EVs just aren't truly practical at this point.

And won’t be for a long time. If ever.

[Random1]

I will not buy any Rivian stock, unless there are decent fundamentals. Overall , in general car manufacturers make millions of cars a year, but their stock as investments have lagged the general economy and other sectors. Looking at a car as a revolutionary form of technology , is a lot different than looking at it as a vehicle to get somewhere. Most car companies will make normal cars to get somewhere using EV technology. More people are not going to buy cars, they will just be buying different types of cars. And I would think their profit margins would be similar to non EV profit margins

[CordMcNally]

My guess is Hyundai/Kia emerge as major competitors. Then maybe volkswagen. Honda et al have been laggards, but I wouldn't count out Honda and Toyota. Ford and GM may survive but again time will tell. Bottom line is Rivian is a great way to lose your arse.

Ford and GM may survive what? Are you just talking about the EV space? If so, I think once actual car manufacturers really get into the EV game then they'll actually do pretty well in addition to some of the top-selling ICE models. I don't care what anyone says but for the majority of the country, EVs just aren't truly practical at this point.

[medicoFIRE]

Nobody buys rivian except for maybe the boomer crew. The younger crew sees rivian as a knockoff Tesla without the cult of personality of Elon Musk. Elon Musk, whether you believe it or not, is a visionary. Or perhaps a very cunning snake oil salesman, but I believe the former- a visionary. Time will tell. Rivian is a knockoff and will fail. I mean they base a lot of their tech on Amazon Alexa, which is absurd. And if you don't understand why that is absurd, you really have no business investing in this steaming pile of dung. I wouldn't buy it if it were 5 dollars a share. Tesla on the other hand, I wouldn't buy now either because it is massively overvalued. But at least Tesla is a good company with a bright future. Just look back at the history of car companies. Many companies and few survived. Same will happen with electrics. My guess is about half of the current big car companies will survive and become major competitors to Tesla in the EV space. Pureplay EV companies like Rivian have an even higher risk of faillure. Now they have the advantage of the tax credit. Once that ends, they will be forced to compete with Tesla on even playing field. They will lose and fail. My guess is Hyundai/Kia emerge as major competitors. Then maybe volkswagen. Honda et al have been laggards, but I wouldn't count out Honda and Toyota. Ford and GM may survive but again time will tell. Bottom line is Rivian is a great way to lose your arse.

[StarTrekDoc]

I don't have firsthand experience with Chinese EVs, nor are they covered much at all in western media, but from a close friend it seems they are actually quite impressive

Do you trust Chinese cell phones and their batteries along with whatever tech is on it?

Moreso for your ride and housing in garage charging overnight--

Bad enough Chevy Bolt couldn't get it right.

no, thank you.