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Rivian, the investment

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  • #91
    I am still waiting to buy at the bottom of the dip.

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    • #92
      Originally posted by Random1 View Post
      I am still waiting to buy at the bottom of the dip.
      If you buy an awful company…you’ve still got an awful company.

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      • #93
        I am more concerned about the people who buy Rivian $70K+ vehicles and five years later the company is no more. Unless someone else buys them out and does their warranty and repair work, they might be sitting on an expensive brick.

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        • #94
          Just thought that I'd revive this thread with it being in the news. Both amazon and Ford are reporting large losses from buying rivian stock. I think that a lot of car manufactures are promising to switch to all electric cars just so that they can have stock gains similar to tesla. I don't see widespread adoption of electric cars in our future, I think that there are too many barriers with the current model. All of this talk from car makers about making all of their cars electric seems more like ways to hype their stock prices more then actual planning. I think that we will continue with gasoline vehicles until some new currently unknown innovation overtakes them.
          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/amaz...ck-plunge.html
          https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/27/busin...ian/index.html

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          • #95
            What’s fun is that since the end of last quarter, rivn is down another 40% or so. So unless rivn recovers they’ll have to report another loss next quarter as well. Rivn does have earnings coming up may 11, but for a company making a few million in revenue losing a lot of money, they’re still valued at close to $30b with a lot of macro headwinds.

            But I think Ford and Amazon both got their rivn shares at around $10 a share and through their accounting purposes report gains/losses as mark to market.

            I think too many people have been trying to find the next tesla, giving companies tesla like valuations without tesla execution, margins, and shown growth.

            EVs are still the future for now, for many reasons, but do face hurdles with high initial cost and charging infrastructure. As battery costs come down the cogs should come down to make cheaper options available. With gas prices as high as they are, I think more and more people are realizing overall cost rather than just up front cost.

            As consumer sentiment shifts, businesses should adapt to provide charging options for people that don’t have a way to charge at home. Charge at work or at the mall/dinner will be a thing.

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            • #96
              I still like their trucks, would love one
              though they raised price and delays on delivery... therefore i'm out

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              • #97
                Soon China will be flooding the EV market with $20,000 EVs. So if any company is going to take over the EV market it is going to be Chinese, just like Japan did in the 70s, catching the big three with their pants down.

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                • #98
                  Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                  Soon China will be flooding the EV market with $20,000 EVs. So if any company is going to take over the EV market it is going to be Chinese, just like Japan did in the 70s, catching the big three with their pants down.
                  With the way geopolitical winds are blowing, we are not going to get any Chinese EVs. I am actually surprised to see a Vietnamese firm sell their EVs in the US (though I guess the same would have been said about Hyundai and Kia back in the late 80s/early 90s).

                  Rivian does have an excellent product, if you read the reviews they do hold some advantages. And they are loosing a bunch of money on each vehicle they produce, particularly at reservation prices from years past. So yeah, there is a good chance the company won't survive but that does not mean the car is bad or won't hold up value to some extent (just like a Dolorean).

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                  • #99
                    Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                    Soon China will be flooding the EV market with $20,000 EVs. So if any company is going to take over the EV market it is going to be Chinese, just like Japan did in the 70s, catching the big three with their pants down.
                    I wouldn't drive a Chinese EV if you gave it to me for free.

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                    • I don't have firsthand experience with Chinese EVs, nor are they covered much at all in western media, but from a close friend it seems they are actually quite impressive

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                      • Saw 3 Rivian trucks on a trailer yesterday. Good looking trucks.

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                        • Now that Ford is offloading 8% of its stake, anyone doubling down? Currently <$24/share.

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                          • Originally posted by GlassPusher View Post
                            Now that Ford is offloading 8% of its stake, anyone doubling down? Currently <$24/share.
                            Depends - do you like torching your money for fun?

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                            • At this point it may be an interesting 'buy and hold' for >5 yrs (assuming they eventually become profitable), better now than than last Fall after the IPO craze. I don't own any RIVN yet, but if EVs actually have a future, there are worse bets than a Bezos-backed venture. Just querying the folks that bought-in earlier.

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                              • The fundamentals are still the same.

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