Bitcoin millionaire

[Panscan]

no practical differences in this context in terms of having the conversation for how leverage effects them. obviously they are completely different and often on completely different chains so yes different in that respect but the action of leverage doesn't behave differently for btc than sol for example.

we're kinda talking around each other so there's no point going on.

would the price be this or that without leverage? who knows and who cares. the price is what it is

This is the fundamental point. If you say leverage doesn't have significant influence on the price, then your view would be that it would still be 60k with or without leverage.

[jacoavlu]

no practical differences in this context in terms of having the conversation for how leverage effects them. obviously they are completely different and often on completely different chains so yes different in that respect but the action of leverage doesn't behave differently for btc than sol for example.

we're kinda talking around each other so there's no point going on.




This is the fundamental point. If you say leverage doesn't have significant influence on the price, then your view would be that it would still be 60k with or without leverage.

my fundamental point is, if you’re not using leverage and buying long term, the leverage is of no consequence.

there is lots of leverage in typical equities. 3x sp500 funds exist. i could give zero fucks.

[xraygoggles]

Truthfully, it's stuff like that has made me shy away from it. It is worth as much as the number of people believing in it..
and the higher the number of people believing is , the higher the price of Bitcoin will be.. and the more people pump it, the higher the number believer will be.. and this sounds like a pump. Who knows, maybe everyone will eventually believe in it, all money will get pulled out of stock and dump into Bitcoin, they will go belly up, and my share in these companies will be worthless.

What you are calling a 'pump' and 'Ponzi' is also known as network effect. Depending on how you characterize, it can have negative or positive connotations. See this article for a basic primer: https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoins-network-effect/

The reason why Bitcoin is not a Ponzi, is because after every 4-year halving cycle and subsequent speculative bubble, there is an exponential increase in the number of wallets/users holding bitcoin. Aka - the adoption curve is S-shaped, like all new technologies. Right now, we are probably somewhere between the early adopters and mainstream adoption cycle. This is where institutions come in - to bridge that gap to allow normies to invest.

[xraygoggles]

I really believe the chance of VTSAX going to 0 is higher than BTC going to 0 and disappearing.

This is nonsensical. You can be a crypto advocate/believer, without succumbing to hyperbolic claptrap. That just makes people less likely to take you seriously, since it's so fantastical to begin with.

[GasFIRE]

As a thread lurker, I appreciate the back and forth on both this one and Bitcoin Is Still Early. While I’ll be the first to admit I don’t know enough about Bitcoin, I am getting a better idea about what questions need to be asked. One of the reasons I’m interested is that there appears to be potential for some creative destruction. If so, better to be on the side of the creative rather than the destroyed.

While my portfolio is just fine without any crypto, I do have a speculative urge (curiosity, FOMO, financial education, scratch an itch, etc.). Not wanting to deal with the cg issues from a taxable account, I’ve taken a 1% NW position of a combo GBTC/ETHE inside my Roth IRA. Mostly interested in holding long term but have done some limited trading with GBTC. For those who hold BTC in a taxable wallet, what do you think of the crypto trust accounts like those from Grayscale?

[jacoavlu]

As a thread lurker, I appreciate the back and forth on both this one and Bitcoin Is Still Early. While I’ll be the first to admit I don’t know enough about Bitcoin, I am getting a better idea about what questions need to be asked. One of the reasons I’m interested is that there appears to be potential for some creative destruction. If so, better to be on the side of the creative rather than the destroyed.

While my portfolio is just fine without any crypto, I do have a speculative urge (curiosity, FOMO, financial education, scratch an itch, etc.). Not wanting to deal with the cg issues from a taxable account, I’ve taken a 1% NW position of a combo GBTC/ETHE inside my Roth IRA. Mostly interested in holding long term but have done some limited trading with GBTC. For those who hold BTC in a taxable wallet, what do you think of the crypto trust accounts like those from Grayscale?

those are bitcoin IOUs. not bitcoin

i would rather own bitcoin

[GasFIRE]

those are bitcoin IOUs. not bitcoin

i would rather own bitcoin

What are the pros vs cons? As a near retiree, my only con is that I’m trying to keep the positive side of the income ledger as low as possible so I can do other financial transactions like Roth conversions, minimize MC premiums, etc. What is the downside of an IOU vs outright ownership in your own wallet? Does GBTC possibly transitioning to an actual ETF in the future make any difference?

[Zaphod]

What are the pros vs cons? As a near retiree, my only con is that I’m trying to keep the positive side of the income ledger as low as possible so I can do other financial transactions like Roth conversions, minimize MC premiums, etc. What is the downside of an IOU vs outright ownership in your own wallet? Does GBTC possibly transitioning to an actual ETF in the future make any difference?

I think theyre the only thing you can do in a tax protected account but far from great. I own some gbtc but coming at it from a different angle (it has a huge discount and with all the new etf hype, many normies are likely to pile into it closing discount/etc...).

a spot etf would mean a massive change in the crypto/security paradigm. it would be cool for some reasons but it would necessarily lose much of what makes it btc and useful.

I dont expect the grayscale etf to work out, and reading their site its much worse, the pr release just shows the companies lack of understanding of whats going on, kind of crazy but whatevs. Anyway, as long as enough believe it it doesnt matter, price will move.

[jacoavlu]

I think theyre the only thing you can do in a tax protected account but far from great. I own some gbtc but coming at it from a different angle (it has a huge discount and with all the new etf hype, many normies are likely to pile into it closing discount/etc...).

a spot etf would mean a massive change in the crypto/security paradigm. it would be cool for some reasons but it would necessarily lose much of what makes it btc and useful.

I dont expect the grayscale etf to work out, and reading their site its much worse, the pr release just shows the companies lack of understanding of whats going on, kind of crazy but whatevs. Anyway, as long as enough believe it it doesnt matter, price will move.

i own btc (raw) in a tax protected account. solo Roth 401k. it’s not super complex.

[xraygoggles]

huh? On numerous exchanges predominately based in asia, you can trade 100x on bitcoin or other cryptos ( since you continually make this distinction even though there is a ton of correlation and no difference in practical purposes)

This is more leverage than average people can get in literally any other form of speculation in the world. Sure I can buy super leveraged futures far higher than 100x but that requires quite a bit more knowledge than clicking a button on a site.

the leverage is what drives the giant green candles that we commonly see and their associated liquidations are also how it can dip so hard. this kind of volatility fuels more speculation and here we are. I feel very comfortable saying prices would be far far lower if there was more regulated leverage. hence how in basically all of the us exchanges there are lower limits of leverage than their asian market counterparts ( such as ftx vs ftx.us)

Of course cryptocurrencies have high amounts of leverage - that is indisputable. But that's not the only reason for its volatility.

There are other factors which must be taken into consideration:

1) market cap (compare the penny-stock like volatility in early days of btc - 90% drops on bear markets - versus now ("only" a 50% drop earlier this year);
2) liquidity (both in terms of # of wallets holding btc, transactions by whales, and now going forward, institutional effects such as futures, spot etfs in the future, etc);
3) expected volatility of developing currencies (for an extreme example, if you ask someone in Zimbabwe if bitcoin volatility is big, they would laugh at you... but if you look at currencies for other countries, such as Russia or some Asian countries, particularly during the various currency crunches which have occurred over the past 20 years, its not that unusual. Living in the US, you have a warped view of the stability of currency, since USD is the World's reserve asset.)

[jacoavlu]

What are the pros vs cons? As a near retiree, my only con is that I’m trying to keep the positive side of the income ledger as low as possible so I can do other financial transactions like Roth conversions, minimize MC premiums, etc. What is the downside of an IOU vs outright ownership in your own wallet? Does GBTC possibly transitioning to an actual ETF in the future make any difference?

well the pros are that it’s easy

but the con is you don’t really own bitcoin

my opinion, you gain an understanding of what bitcoin is by owning it. transacting it. moving it. holding it. ideally in your own non custodial wallet which means you are responsible for your coins and you don’t need any trusted third party to hold the assets which are yours

if you are ready to invest in bitcoin, then buy bitcoin.

[Panscan]

As a thread lurker, I appreciate the back and forth on both this one and Bitcoin Is Still Early. While I’ll be the first to admit I don’t know enough about Bitcoin, I am getting a better idea about what questions need to be asked. One of the reasons I’m interested is that there appears to be potential for some creative destruction. If so, better to be on the side of the creative rather than the destroyed.

While my portfolio is just fine without any crypto, I do have a speculative urge (curiosity, FOMO, financial education, scratch an itch, etc.). Not wanting to deal with the cg issues from a taxable account, I’ve taken a 1% NW position of a combo GBTC/ETHE inside my Roth IRA. Mostly interested in holding long term but have done some limited trading with GBTC. For those who hold BTC in a taxable wallet, what do you think of the crypto trust accounts like those from Grayscale?

ya as said above would just buy btc directly if taxable. those trusts you're in are good for IRAs and etc where you don't have free reign

[jacoavlu]

I would take that bet, but since I like to stack sats, I cannot relinquish any of it.

Do you accept Shiba inu or Safemoon? Heard they were new mediums of exchange...

quoting this again bc i want the bet. i’m serious. we could deposit funds in a 2 of 3 multisig address. 1 key me 1 key you and 1 key with a third party.

what’s up?

[xraygoggles]

quoting this again bc i want the bet. i’m serious. we could deposit funds in a 2 of 3 multisig address. 1 key me 1 key you and 1 key with a third party.

what’s up?

Oh, I was being sarcastic. That's why I listed the two meme-iest shitcoins...

[jacoavlu]

Oh, I was being sarcastic. That's why I listed the two meme-iest shitcoins...

so you don’t really believe what you wrote?

for reference you said:

BITO is just the beginning of institutional adoption of Bitcoin, and crypto in general. This may sound incredulous right now, but within 2-5 years at the very most (likely much sooner), there will be not only Bitcoin spot ETFs, but Ether ETFs, blue-chip large cap Defi index ETFs, Dogecoin ETFs, etc. which will be provided by BlackRock and other large firms with low expense ratios. If that sounds far-fetched to you, which I have a feeling it will to many on here, prepare to be amazed going forward.

i thought i was being generous giving you a full 5 years